After Bitcoin hit $42000 on January 8, 2021, it has been consolidating between $34300 and $41200 during the weekend. It seem only reasonable for the rise to take a break after a surge from $30000 to $42000 since just January 5, 2021. Bitcoin is resting while waiting for the next upside catalyst, a $3 Trillion economic stimulus package from the new administration. Bitcoin trend is still bullish but the catalysts is at least 10days away as Biden inaugurates in January 20. So expect short term correction for Bitcoin as it ranges between $34000 and $42000. As Bitcoin corrects, major altcoins such as Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Lite Coin have been trying to catch up and performed much better than Bitcoin in the last few days. Bank of America anaylst called Bitcoin the biggest bubble ever with Bitcoin risen about 950% since 2019. The thing is we don't really know when a bubble is going to burst, besides 950% gain in two year is far from the 2600% 2017 one year gain before it crashed. My thinking is if we rate the severity of bubble using percentage gain than NIO +1602% and TSLA +814% just this year should burst first before Bitcoin. Even though I still bullish on Bitcoin, but I do think Bitcoin miners Marathon Patent Group MARA +2737% and Riot Blockchain RIOT+1899% just in 1 year is way ahead of Bitcoin's 496% gain. So they will have more severe corrections.
As far as the stock market is concern even though most analysts are still bullish for this year a few market veterans are calling for a big melt down in a month or two. I think it make sense as stock valuation is the highest ever, what goes up must come down. Based on the fact that stock market reacts ahead of expectation, since stock market surged last year as economy was weak (people expect will turn better), the logic for this year should be as the economy growth, the stock market should tank (people expect fed will stop easing and interest rate goes higher). Mega big tech stocks index FANG+ index is up 144% since March 2020 low got to be the biggest move in history. Their very high PEG ratios are hard to sustain.
Latest Bitcoin news:
1. The problem is that the market is overleveraged and overwhelmingly longing Bitcoin. The term longing means buying BTC with borrowed capital in the derivatives market. The funding rate of Bitcoin in the futures market has exceeded 0.15%. On average, the BTC funding rate hovers at around 0.01%, so it is about 15 times higher than the normal rate. Funding is a mechanism that futures exchanges use to find balance in the market. Every eight hours, long or short contract holders have to pay a fee to one another. Longs pay shorts if the market is majority long, and vice versa. If the funding fee is above 0.15%, it means that the market is extremely overheated and the vast majority of the market is longing Bitcoin. ---Cointelegraph 1/10/2021
2. Coinbase outflows often signal institutional buy orders, as institutions and high-net-worth investors prefer to store their assets away from centralized platforms. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant,said “FYI, Coinbase outflow on Jan 2 was an all-time high. It seems institutions bought $BTC when the price above 30k. $BTC bull market isn't over.” If the Coinbase outflows and premium remain high, the probability of a large correction should decrease in the foreseeable future. ---Cointelegraph 1/10/2021
3. Tom Lee thinks that BTC price can correct 50% from the current levels. Speaking to Yahoo Finance, Lee said that’s a pretty typical correction for crypto. In fact, I think last year it had a couple of drawdowns nearly that size. If it looks like 2017, I think bitcoin will be up at least 300%,” he said. “I don’t think it’s straight up with a ruler, it’s going to be pretty jagged but at the end of the year, bitcoin is much higher.” ---Coingape 1/10/2021
4. The price of Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high above $42,000 on Jan. 8, surging by 9% in merely three hours. At the time, there was a high premium on Coinbase, which meant U.S. buyers drove up the market by aggressively accumulating BTC. But, there is continuous selling pressure coming from Asia, particularly from South Korea. Whales have been selling since the start of 2021. As an example, when Bitcoin first surpassed $40,000, large whales began to sell BTC even as the price fell below $40,000. Within three hours, on Jan. 7, so-called “mega whales” on Binance sold off a total of four times, driving extreme volatility. --- Cointelegraph 01/09/2021
5. The incoming Biden administration’s plan to flood the U.S. economy with trillions of dollars could ignite the next leg of the Bitcoin BTC bull market, as more investors seek refuge from a crumbling United States dollar.Joe Biden has asked Congress to provide Americans with $2,000 in stimulus payments to help offset the economic devastation of Covid-19. The incoming president has also proposed a $3 trillion tax and infrastructure package as part of his “Build Back Better” program. Biden doubled downon his call for more direct relief to Americans following Friday’s disappointing jobs report showing a loss of 140,000 positions in December.---Cointelegraph 01/09/2021
6. Wall Street’s popular value investor Bill Miller has been heavily backing BTC in recent times. during his recent interview with CNBC, the mutual fund titan said:“One of the things that’s interesting about bitcoin is that it gets less risky the higher it goes. That’s the opposite of what happens with most stocks.” ---CNBC 1/8/2021
比特币在2021年1月8日达到42000美元后，在周末一直在34300至41200美元之间盘整。自2021年1月5日以来，从30000美元飙升至42000美元之后，下跌回调是合理的。比特币在等待下一个上行催化剂（新政府推出的3万亿美元经济刺激计划）时暂时会止升修正。比特币趋势仍然看涨，但拜登至还有10天在1月20日才就职，因此预计比特币短期会在34000美元至42000美元之间盘整。尽管比特币在宿生，在过去几天中，主要的山寨币，例如以太坊，比特币现金和精简币，一直在努力追赶上来并表现得比比特币好得多。美国银行分析师称比特币是有史以来最大的泡沫因为比特币自2019年以来上涨了约950％。问题是我们真的不知道泡沫会何时破裂，但两年内950％的增长还远未达到2017年的2600％崩溃前一年的涨幅。我的想法是，如果我们用百分比增幅来评估泡沫的严重性，那么今年上升 1602％的NIO 和+ 814％的TSLA 就应该在比特币之前首先泡沫爆破。尽管我仍然看好比特币，但我认为，仅今年以来，比特币挖矿司（MARA） + 2737％和Riot Blockchain （RIOT） + 1899％远远超过了比特币496％的涨幅而有些过份。因此，他们将会有较大的下跌调整。
就股票市场而言，尽管大多数分析师仍对今年看涨，但仍有少数专家预测在一两个月内大幅下跌。我认为大跌是有道理的，因为股票估值是有史以来最高的，大涨后就必然会大幅下降。基于股市预先反映期望的道理，由于去年股市因经济疲弱而飙升（人们期望经济会好转），因此今年的逻辑应该是经济增长，股市应该下跌（人们期望美联储会停止宽松，利率上升）。另外，超级大型科技股指数FANG +指数自2020年3月的低点以来上涨了144％，为历史上最大的涨幅。它们过份高的PEG比例很难维持。
最新比特币新闻：
1.问题在于市场过度杠杆化，并且绝大多数都在“Long"比特币。术语“Long”是指在衍生品市场上用借入的资金购买BTC。期货市场上比特币的资助率已超过0.15％。 BTC资助率平均徘徊在0.01％左右，因此是正常利率的15倍左右。资助率是期货交易所用来寻找市场平衡的一种机制。每8小时，多头或空头合约持有人必须互相付费。如果市场看涨占多数，则多头支付空头，反之亦然。如果资助率超过0.15％，则意味着市场极度过热，并且绝大多数市场都在Long比特币。 -Cointelegraph 1/10/2021
2.Coinbase的比特币流出通常预示着机构的买单，因为机构和高净值投资者更倾向于将资产存储在远离集中式平台的地方。 CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju表示：“仅供参考，1月2日，Coinbase的资金流出创历史新高。似乎机构在比特币价格超过30k时购买了BTC。 BTC牛市尚未结束。”如果Coinbase的流出量和溢价保持较高水平，则在可预见的将来大幅调整的可能性应降低。 -Cointelegraph 1/10/2021
3.汤姆·李（Tom Lee）认为BTC价格可以从当前水平修正50％。 Lee在接受Yahoo Finance采访时说，这是加密货币的非常典型的修正。实际上，我认为去年它有几次该规模的调整。如果如2017年一样，我认为比特币将至少上涨300％，”他说。 “我不认为它会像一直的升，它会锯齿状的行走，但是到了今年年底，比特币会比现在要高得多。” -Coingape 1/10/2021
4.1月8日，比特币的价格创下了历史新高，达到42,000美元以上，仅在三个小时内就飙升了9％。当时，Coinbase的溢价很高，这意味着美国买家通过积极积累BTC来拉高市场。但是，来自亚洲，尤其是来自韩国的持续销售压力。自2021年初以来，鲸鱼（大户）一直在抛售。例如，当比特币首次超过40,000美元时，即使价格跌至40,000美元以下，大型鲸鱼也开始出售BTC。在1月7日的三个小时内，Binance上的所谓“巨鲸”总共卖出了四次，导致市场极度动荡。 -Cointelegraph 20年1月9日
5.即将上任的拜登政府计划向美国经济注入数万亿美元的计划，可能会点燃比特币BTC牛市的下一波上升，因为越来越多的投资者寻求躲避美元的贬值。乔·拜登已要求国会向美国人提供2,000美元的刺激资金付款以抵消Covid-19造成的经济损失。即将上任的总统还提出了3万亿美元的税收和基础设施一揽子计划，作为他的“重建更好”计划的一部分。周五令人失望的就业报告显示，12月亏损了14万个职位，拜登对美国人提供更多直接救济的态度倍增。--Cointelegraph 2021年9月1日
6. 华尔街受欢迎的价值投资者比尔·米勒（Bill Miller）最近一直大力支持BTC。该共同基金巨头在最近接受CNBC采访时说：“比特币有趣的一件事是，价位越高，比特币的风险就越小。这与大多数股票的情况恰恰相反。” --CNBC 1/8/2021
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