Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Omicron News Round Up Since Last Friday.自上周五以来的 Omicron 新闻总汇

As of 10 AM Pacific Time, BNO News reported 234 cases of Omicron virus worldwide, that's 134% increase from last Friday. Omicron are found in South Africa, UK, Botswana, Netherland, Portugal, Australia, Germany, Canada, HongKong, Italy, Israel, Denmark, Japan, France, Austria, Sweden, Belgium, Czech Republic, Spain, Finland and Switzerland.---BNO News 11/30/2021

"The recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant pose downside risks to employment and economic activity and increased uncertainty for inflation. Greater concerns about the virus could reduce people's willingness to work in person, which would slow progress in the labor market and intensify supply-chain disruptions." – Jay Powell 11/30/2021

Moderna (MRNA) CEO Stephane Bancel told the Financial Times that the company's current COVID-19 vaccine would likely see a "material drop" in effectiveness against the Omicron variant, while noting more data was needed to see any extent of the decline. Separately, Pfizer's (PFE) CEO Albert Bourla told CNBC he didn't "think that the result will be the vaccines don't protect," but that "the result could be, which we don't know yet, the vaccines protect less."---yahoo.com 11/30/2021

Speaking on CNBC Monday morning following a holiday weekend in the US marked by rising hysteria over the new "Omicron" variant, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel warned that any country that has received flights from southern Africa over the last two weeks very likely has already imported this new, highly infectious variant-even as others push back against claims that the new variant is hyper infectious. ---ZeroHedge 11/29/2021

The Prime Minister of Belgium says Alexander De Croo :"You could say that this is Covid-21 instead of Covid-19: it is three times more infectious than the original virus." ---ZeroHedge 11/28/2021

Dr. Anthony Fauci said Saturday that it wouldn't be surprised if Omicron is already in US, predicts it will go all over. ---Fox News 11/27/2021

Two planes carrying some 600 passengers from South Africa brought 61 people infected with covid to the Netherlands, Dutch health authorities said on Saturday. ---Washington Post 11/27/2021

The World Health Organization Friday designated the strain, now named Omicron, as a variant of concern and said multiple studies are underway as advisers continue to monitor the variant.While scientists say there is reason to be concerned over the variant, they stress there is still a lot we don't know - including whether the variant is indeed more contagious, whether it causes more severe disease or what its effects on vaccine efficacy may be. ---CNN 11/26/2021

Lawrence Young, a virologist and a professor of molecular oncology at Warwick Medical School in the United Kingdom, said the Omicron variant was "very worrying.""It is the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen to date. This variant carries some changes we've seen previously in other variants but never all together in one virus. It also has novel mutations," Young said in a statement .The variant has a high number of mutations, about 50 overall. Crucially, South African genomic scientists said Thursday more than 30 of the mutations were found in the spike protein - the structure the virus uses to get into the cells they attack.Neil Ferguson, the director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, said in a statement the number of mutations on the spike protein was "unprecedented.""The spike protein gene [is] the protein which is the target of most vaccines. There is therefore a concern that this variant may have a greater potential to escape prior immunity than previous variants," Ferguson said. ---CNN 11/26/2021

Researchers in South Africa are racing to track the concerning rise of a new variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The variant harbours a large number of mutations found in other variants, including Delta, and it seems to be spreading quickly across South Africa . A top priority is to follow the variant more closely as it spreads: it was first identified in Botswana this month and has turned up in travellers to Hong Kong from South Africa. Scientists are also trying to understand the variant's properties, such as whether it can evade immune responses triggered by vaccines and whether it causes more or less severe disease than other variants do. ---Nature.com 11/26/2021

As of Thursday there were almost 100 cases detected in South Africa, where it's become the dominant strain among new infections. Early PCR test results showed that 90% of 1,100 new cases reported Wednesday in the South African province that includes Johannesburg were caused by the new variant, according to de Oliveira.In neighboring Botswana, officials recorded four cases on Monday in people who were fully vaccinated. In Hong Kong, a traveler from South Africa was found to have the variant, and another case was identified in a person quarantined in a hotel room across the hall. Israel has also identified one case in a man who recently traveled to Malawi. Belgium has also reported two new cases. According to de Oliveira, this new variant, B.1.1.529 "seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)" ---ZeroHedge.com 11/26/2021

Experts with the World Health Organization were meeting Friday to assess a COVID-19 variant in South Africa that has been rapidly spreading among young people and has already spawned numerous mutations. Meanwhile, Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden's chief medical adviser, said American officials will have a call with South African officials Friday to find out more about the variant. He added there was no indication the variant had arrived in the U.S. yet. It's too early to say whether the new variant, dubbed B.1.1.529, is going to have the potential impact of the troublesome delta variant. But the WHO will decide soon whether to give the latest variant a name from the Greek alphabet, one of the first indicators that it is worth consideration as an increased threat. ---USA Today 11/26/2021

The World Health Organization is pleading with world leaders not to engage in knee-jerk reactions to a new variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 that has emerged in South Africa, as a number of countries immediately announced travel bans from that country and some of its neighbors.UK and European Union were taking no chances and immediately announced bans on travelers from South Africa and other countries in southern Africa, while others, including Japan, said travelers would be forced to quarantine in government-run accommodation for 10 days to allow for regular testing, as the Associated Press reported. ---Marketwatch.com 11/26/2021

PETER CHATWELL, HEAD OF MULTI-ASSET STRATEGY AT MIZUHO INTERNATIONAL:The European lockdowns on their own would have meant soft Q4 GDP growth, but a Q1 rebound. US, UK, Asia all looked unaffected by Europe's problem. If the new variant does deliver its potential (usurping Delta, and reducing vaccine efficacy) we need to think about a globally soft/flat Q4 and Q1 GDP growth. Vaccine efficacy will determine the severity of lockdowns, and therefore whether this becomes another recession. RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, EUROPE:It is the threat of vaccine escape that causes the market reaction in both equities (down) and bonds (up). As long as markets are faced with a familiar virus situation that can be overcome with a sufficiently crafted and executed vaccination strategy, the reactions will be muted, as we have seen with the short-lived bond market rally last week when new lockdowns were announced in Europe. This new variant, however, creates a potential threat to the known responses and thus creates a more lasting market response. ---Livemint.com 11/26/2021



截至太平洋时间上午 10 点,BNO 新闻报道了全球 234 例 Omicron 病毒病例,比上周五增加了 134%。 Omicron 病例分布于南非、英国、博茨瓦纳、荷兰、葡萄牙、澳大利亚、德国、加拿大、香港、意大利、以色列、丹麦、日本、法国、奥地利、瑞典、比利时、捷克共和国、西班牙、芬兰和瑞士。-- -BNO 新闻 11/30/2021

“最近 COVID-19 病例的增加以及 Omicron 变体的出现给就业和经济活动带来了下行风险,并增加了通货膨胀的不确定性。对病毒的更大担忧是可能会降低人们亲自工作的意愿,这将减缓劳动力市场并加剧供应链中断。” —联储主席 杰·鲍威尔 11/30/2021

Moderna (MRNA) 首席执行官 Stephane Bancel 告诉英国《金融时报》说该公司目前的 COVID-19 疫苗对 Omicron 变体的有效性可能会“实质性下降”,同时指出需要更多数据才能看到下降的程度。另外,辉瑞 (Pfizer) 的 (PFE) 首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉 (Albert Bourla) 告诉 CNBC,他并不“认为结果会是疫苗没有保护作用”,但“结果可能是,我们尚不知道,疫苗保护的作用较小.”---yahoo.com 11/30/2021

比利时首相亚历山大·德克罗说:“你可以说这是 Covid-21 而不是 Covid-19:它的传染性是原始病毒的三倍。” ---ZeroHedge 2021/11/28

Anthony Fauci 博士周六表示,如果说Omicron 已经在美国,它不会感到惊讶,并预测它将散布到各地。 ---福克斯新闻 11/27/2021

荷兰卫生当局周六表示,两架载有约 600 名来自南非的乘客的飞机将 61 名感染新冠病毒的人带到了荷兰。 ---华盛顿邮报 11/27/2021

世界卫生组织周五将这种现在命名为 Omicron 的菌株指定为令人担忧的变种病毒,并表示随着顾问继续监测该变种并且正在进行多项研究。虽然科学家们表示有理由担心这种变种,但他们强调仍然存在很多我们不知道——包括变异是否确实更具传染性,是否会导致更严重的疾病,或者它对疫苗效力的影响可能是什么。 ---CNN 11/26/2021

英国华威医学院的病毒学家、分子肿瘤学教授劳伦斯·杨说,Omicron 变种“非常令人担忧”。 “我们之前在其他变体中看到了一些变化,但从未在一个病毒中全部出现。它还具有新的突变,”杨在一份声明中说。该变体具有大量突变,总共约 50 个。至关重要的是,南非基因组科学家周四表示,在刺突蛋白中发现了 30 多个突变 - 病毒用来进入它们攻击的细胞的结构。 尼尔弗格森,帝国理工学院全球传染病分析中心主任伦敦学院在一份声明中表示,刺突蛋白的突变数量“前所未有”。与以前的变种相比,有可能逃避先前的免疫力,”弗格森说。 ---CNN 11/26/2021

南非的研究人员正在竞相追踪引起 COVID-19 的冠状病毒新变种的上升趋势。该变体包含在包括 Delta 在内的其他变体中发现的大量突变,并且它似乎正在南非迅速传播。当它传播时,当务之急是更密切地关注该变种:它本月在博茨瓦纳首次被发现,并已出现在从南非到香港的旅客中。科学家们还试图了解该变体的特性,例如它是否可以逃避疫苗引发的免疫反应,以及它是否会比其他变体引起更严重或更轻的疾病。 ---Nature.com 11/26/2021

截至周四,南非已发现近 100 例病例,它已成为新感染病例中的主要毒株。据 de Oliveira 称,早期 PCR 检测结果显示,周三在包括约翰内斯堡在内的南非省报告的 1,100 例新病例中有 90% 是由新变种引起的。 在邻国博茨瓦纳,官员们周一记录了四例完全接种疫苗的人.在香港,一名来自南非的旅客被发现携带该变种,另外一名在大厅对面的酒店房间内被隔离的人也被发现。以色列还发现了一名最近前往马拉维的男子的病例。比利时还报告了两例新病例。根据 de Oliveira 的说法,这种新变种 B.1.1.529“似乎传播得非常快!在南非毁灭性的Delata浪潮之后,在不到 2 周的时间里现在主导了所有感染(蓝色新变种,现在占最后一个基因组的 75%很快就会达到 100%)”---ZeroHedge.com 11/26/2021

世界卫生组织的专家周五开会评估南非的 COVID-19 变体,该变体在年轻人中迅速传播,并且已经产生了许多突变。与此同时,乔·拜登总统的首席医疗顾问安东尼·福奇博士表示,美国官员将于周五与南非官员通电话,以了解有关该变种的更多信息。他补充说,目前还没有迹象表明该变种已经抵达美国。现在说被称为 B.1.1.529 的新变体是否会产生麻烦的 delta 变体的潜在影响还为时过早。但世卫组织将很快决定是否给最新的变种一个希腊字母的名字,这是值得考虑的首要指标之一,因为它是一个增加的威胁。 ---今日美国 11/26/2021

世界卫生组织恳求世界各国领导人不要对南非出现的导致 COVID-19 的冠状病毒的新变种做出下意识的反应,因为一些国家立即宣布了该国的旅行禁令,一些英国和欧盟没有冒险,立即宣布禁止来自南非和南部非洲其他国家的旅客,而包括日本在内的其他国家则表示,旅客将被迫在政府经营的住所隔离 10 天,正如美联社报道的那样,允许定期测试。 ---Marketwatch.com 11/26/2021

MIZUHO INTERNATIONAL 多资产策略主管 PETER CHATWELL:欧洲的封锁本身就意味着第四季度 GDP 增长疲软,但第一季度会反弹。美国、英国、亚洲似乎都没有受到欧洲问题的影响。如果新变种确实发挥其潜力(篡夺 Delta 并降低疫苗效力),我们需要考虑全球第四季度和第一季度 GDP 增长疲软/持平。疫苗效力将决定封锁的严重程度,因此这是否会成为另一场衰退。 RBC CAPITAL MARKETS,欧洲:正是逃避疫苗的威胁导致股票(下跌)和债券(上涨)的市场反应。只要市场面临着熟悉的病毒情况,而这种情况可以通过精心设计和执行的疫苗接种策略来克服,那么反应就会平息,正如我们在上周宣布新的封锁措施时债券市场的短暂反弹中所看到的那样。欧洲。然而,这种新变体对已知反应造成了潜在威胁,从而产生了更持久的市场反应。 ---Livemint.com 11/26/2021

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Stock Market Perspective After Black Friday 黑色星期五后的股市展望


Omicron, the latest variant of the virus that originated in South Africa, has caused a new round of concerns about the spread of the virus. Lawrence Young, a virologist and a professor of molecular oncology at Warwick Medical School in the United Kingdom, said the Omicron variant was "very worrying.""It is the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen to date. This variant carries some changes we've seen previously in other variants but never all together in one virus.“  Pfizer said they won't have vaccine for the new virus variant for another 100 days. As of 11 AM Pacific time Sunday, there are now 155 new virus variant Omicron cases  (a 55% jump from 2 days ago) world wide involving countries and cities such as South Africa, Botswana, Netherland, Belgium, Austria, England, Hong Kong, Israel, Australia, Denmark, Italy, Belgium, France, Germany and Czech Republic. Dr. Fauci said he wouldn't be surprised if Omicron is already in US US. "The marketplace is worried about two things," Allianz Chief Economic Advisor El-Erian said. "One, that yet another variant of COVID is going to hit them hard, we'll travel less, we'll go out to restaurants less, and we may have additional restrictions that are imposed on us. "and issue number two, the marketplace is worried also that this will cause more inflation, that supply chains will be disrupted even more," El-Erian said. He also said a period of low growth and high inflation, called stagflation, is a growing concern amid the news of the mutated Covid-19 variant. Global stock markets were down big last Friday as fear of the latest virus may slow down global economy.

The Dow and S&P 500 suffered their worst 'Black Friday' selloff in 70 Years.They were down 2.53% and 2.27% respectively.  European stocks were down nearly 4% on average. Both HangSeng and Nekkie were down over 2.5% while Shanghai was down 0.56%. 



All 11 S&P 500 sectors are down with Energy, Financial, Real Estate, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals and Technology down over 2%.


Most of the S&P 500 stocks are down with only a few up(mainly vaccine developing companies).


Volatility index surged more than 54% on Friday and 60% gain last week. This weekly gain is the biggest in 1 year and 8 months. This is not a small reaction. As a comparison, the VIX gain for the week of February 24 2020 at the onset of Covid-19 is 134%. Is this the beginning of fear similar to what happened in February to March 2020 when the VIX surged 539%?



CNN Money's Fear and Greed indicator drop precipitously from greed to fear in one day. This change is more drastic than the change in February 2020. 






Cruel oil were down 13%,US dollar down, while US Treasuries surging as rate hike odd reduces and investors buying as safe haven. Gold is holding up well. Economic sensitive material Copper and Lumber plunged.



Dow and Small Cap indexes dropped below their 50 day moving averages while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped below their 20 day moving averages.  10 Year Treasury yield $TNX dropped to 1.482% from 1.645%. Bitcoin and Ethereum also down big. 




 
The big 6 tech stocks AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG, MSFT and TSLA all  have signs of trending down.



Advisors Perspective chart presented a good perspective of the current S&P500 drop from all time high with previous drops. S&P 500 is only 2.34% down from all time high, not a big drop. My worry is that if the latest Omicron virus is worse than Covid-19, the coming stock market correction could be devastating since the Covid-19 caused market drop is 33.92% in 2020.









起源与于南非的最新变种病毒Omicron引起了新一轮病毒传播的担忧。英国华威医学院的病毒学家、分子肿瘤学教授劳伦斯·杨表示,Omicron 变种病毒“非常令人担忧”。 我们之前在其他变体中看到过一些变化,但从来没有在一种病毒中一起出现过。辉瑞表示,他们将在接下来的 100 天内没有针对新病毒变体的疫苗。截至太平洋时间周日上午 11 点,全球现在有 155 例新的病毒变种 Omicron 病例(比两天前增加了 55%),涉及南非、博茨瓦纳、荷兰、比利时、奥地利、英国、香港等国家和城市 、以色列、澳大利亚、丹麦、意大利、比利时、法国、德国和捷克共和国。 Fauci 博士说,如果 Omicron 已经在美国,他不会感到惊讶。 “市场担心两件事,”Allianz首席经济顾问El-Erian说。 “第一,又一个变种的病毒冲击经济,我们会更少旅行,我们会少出去餐馆,我们可能会对我们施加额外的限制。”第二个市场的担心是这将导致更多的通货膨胀,供应链将被扰乱更多“。他还表示一段低增长和高通货膨胀,称为滞胀,是变种病毒带来的一个问题。由于对最新病毒可能会导致全球经济放缓的担忧,上周五全球股市大幅下跌。

道琼斯指数和标准普尔 500 指数遭遇 70 年来最严重的“黑色星期五”抛售,分别下跌 2.53% 和 2.27%。 欧洲股市平均下跌近 4%。 恒生和 Nekkie 均下跌超过 2.5%,而上海则下跌 0.56%。



标准普尔 500 指数的所有 11 个板块均下跌,能源、金融、房地产、工业、周期性消费和科技股下跌超过 2%。

标准普尔 500 指数的大部分股票都下跌,只有少数股票上涨(主要是疫苗开发公司)。



波动指数VIX周五飙升超过 54%,上周上涨了 60%。 这个一周涨幅是 1 年零 8 个月以来的最大涨幅。这不是个小的反应。 相比之下,2020 年 2 月 24 日这一周 Covid-19 开始时的 VIX 涨幅为 134%。 这是否与 2020 年 2 月至 2020 年 3 月 VIX 飙升 539% 开始时的情况类似?




CNN Money 的恐惧和贪婪指标一天就从贪婪到恐惧。 这种变化比2020年2月更戏剧化。






原油下跌 13%,美元下跌,而美国国债因加息几率降低和投资者买入避险资产而飙升。 黄金则保持稳定。对经济敏感的铜及木材均大跌。


道指和小盘股指数跌破 50 天移动平均线,而纳斯达克指数和标准普尔 500 指数跌破 20 天移动平均线。 10 年期国债收益率$TNX 从 1.645% 降至 1.482%。 比特币和以太币也大幅下跌。



6 大科技股AMZN,AAPL,FB,GOOG,MSFT及TSLA均有转跌的趋势。


Advisors Perspective 提供的图表对当前 S&P500 从历史高点的跌幅和之前的跌幅给出了很好的启示。 S&P500 现在只是从历史高位下跌了2.34%, 还是很少。我担心的是,如果最新的 Omicron 病毒比 Covid-19 更糟糕,那么即将到来的股市调整可能是毁灭性的,因为在 2020 年Covid-19 导致的市场跌幅达到 33.92%。




Monday, November 22, 2021

How Bad Are Tech Valuations 科技股估值有多糟糕

Let's go back to stock fundamentals, here is what Investopedia.com says about PE and PEG:

"The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS). The higher the P/E ratio, the more you are paying for each dollar of earnings. This makes a high PE ratio bad for investors, strictly from a price to earnings perspective. A higher P/E ratio means you are paying more to purchase a share of the company's earnings. 

The PEG ratio enhances the P/E ratio by adding in expected earnings growth into the calculation. The PEG ratio is considered to be an indicator of a stock's true value, and similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG may indicate that a stock is undervalued.In theory, a PEG ratio value of 1 represents a perfect correlation between the company's market value and its projected earnings growth. PEG ratios higher than 1 are generally considered unfavorable, suggesting a stock is overvalued. Conversely, ratios lower than 1 are considered better, indicating a stock is undervalued. "

Here is an example of how to use PEG in analyzing the value of stock price. Assuming stock XYZ is trading at 100, what kind of indication for XYZ if its PEG is 2 or its PEG is 0.5?For PEG equals 2, XYZ is 100% over value, in order to be fair valued, XYZ need to come down by 50% to 50. On the other hand, for PEG equals 0.5, in order to be fair valued, XYZ need to go up 100%. 

The following table listed consensus Forward PE, EPS Growth and PEG for next year for major tech companies.

Symbol        Forward PE    EPS Growth Next Year    PEG

AMZN        71                    26%                                 2.73

AAPL         28                    3%                                    9.33

FB              24                    2%                                    12

GOOG       28                    5%                                    5.60

MSFT        32                   14%                                   2.28

NVDA       64                   21%                                   3.04

TSLA.       139                 35%                                   3.97

Assuming the above consensus estimates by analysts are correct, the major techs have horrifying PEGs.These means their stock prices are extremely overvalued. I worry that it will take a market crash to reset things back to normal. How do they get to such insane high valuations, you may ask. My guess is that investors have been blindly buying stocks with emotion but not based on fundamentals. Analysts are to blame too because they keep raising price targets of these stocks on worry losing the competition of accuracy to their colleagues, even though knowingly valuations are too high. In addition stock funds are only there to keep buying stocks regardless of risks as long as investors give them money to invest.


The Tech heavy Nasdaq Composite opened up 155 points but closed down 205 points today. Is this the beginning of a tech stock correction? Here is  a glance of today's market:









让我们回到股票基本面,以下是 Investopedia.com 关于 PE 和 PEG 的论术:

“市盈率 (P/E ratio) 是衡量一家公司当前股价相对于其每股收益 (EPS) 的估值比率。市盈率越高,您支付每一美元的收益的费用就越多。严格来说,从市盈率的角度来看,高市盈率对投资者不利。较高的市盈率意味着您要支付更多的钱来购买公司收益的一部分。

市盈率与盈利成长率比率PEG通过在计算中加入预期收益增长来提高估计股值效益。 PEG 比率被认为是股票真实价值的指标,与市盈率类似,较低的 PEG 可能表明股票被低估。理论上,PEG 比率值为 1 代表市盈率及其预期的盈利增长两者之间的完美市值表达。高于 1 的 PEG 比率通常被认为是不利的,表明股票价值被高估了。相反,低于 1 的比率被认为好,表明股票价值被低估了。 ”


以下是如何使用 PEG 分析股价价值的示例。假设股票XYZ现在的交易价格为100,如果PEG为2或PEG为0.5,这对XYZ是什么样的解读?对于PEG等于2,XYZ估值高出100%,如要回到公允价值,XYZ需要下跌50% 到 50。另一方面,对于 PEG 等于 0.5,如要回到公允价值,XYZ 需要上涨 100%。


下表列出了主要科技公司预期明年的 PE、EPS 增长率和计算得来的 PEG。

代号         前瞻 PE    明年EPS增长率     PEG

AMZN     71             26%                         2.73

AAPL      28             3%                           9.33

FB           24             2%                           12

GOOG    28             5%                           5.60

MSFT     32             14%                         2.28

NVDA    64            21%                          3.04

TSLA     139           35%                         3.97

假设分析师的上述共识估计是正确的,主要科技股的 PEG 实在高得令人震惊。这意味着它们的股价被极度高估了。我的经验是PEG正常只是在1 到1.5之间。我担心需要市场崩盘才能使估值恢复正常。你可能会问,它们是如何达到如此疯狂的高估值的。我的猜测是,投资者一直在盲目地带着情绪而不是基于基本面购买股票而把股价推高。分析师们也难辞其咎,因为他们在不断提高这些股票的目标价格,因为他们担心在准确性方面的竞争会输给他们的同事,尽管他们知道估值是过高的。此外,股票基金只会不顾风险地继续购买股票,只要投资者给他们钱进行投资。

科技比重大的股纳斯达克综合指数今天开盘上涨 155 点,但收盘下跌 205 点。 这是科技股调整的开始吗? 以下是当今市场的概览: