Let's go back to stock fundamentals, here is what Investopedia.com says about PE and PEG:
"The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS). The higher the P/E ratio, the more you are paying for each dollar of earnings. This makes a high PE ratio bad for investors, strictly from a price to earnings perspective. A higher P/E ratio means you are paying more to purchase a share of the company's earnings.
The PEG ratio enhances the P/E ratio by adding in expected earnings growth into the calculation. The PEG ratio is considered to be an indicator of a stock's true value, and similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG may indicate that a stock is undervalued.In theory, a PEG ratio value of 1 represents a perfect correlation between the company's market value and its projected earnings growth. PEG ratios higher than 1 are generally considered unfavorable, suggesting a stock is overvalued. Conversely, ratios lower than 1 are considered better, indicating a stock is undervalued. "
Here is an example of how to use PEG in analyzing the value of stock price. Assuming stock XYZ is trading at 100, what kind of indication for XYZ if its PEG is 2 or its PEG is 0.5?For PEG equals 2, XYZ is 100% over value, in order to be fair valued, XYZ need to come down by 50% to 50. On the other hand, for PEG equals 0.5, in order to be fair valued, XYZ need to go up 100%.
The following table listed consensus Forward PE, EPS Growth and PEG for next year for major tech companies.
Symbol Forward PE EPS Growth Next Year PEG
AMZN 71 26% 2.73
AAPL 28 3% 9.33
FB 24 2% 12
GOOG 28 5% 5.60
MSFT 32 14% 2.28
NVDA 64 21% 3.04
TSLA. 139 35% 3.97
Assuming the above consensus estimates by analysts are correct, the major techs have horrifying PEGs.These means their stock prices are extremely overvalued. I worry that it will take a market crash to reset things back to normal. How do they get to such insane high valuations, you may ask. My guess is that investors have been blindly buying stocks with emotion but not based on fundamentals. Analysts are to blame too because they keep raising price targets of these stocks on worry losing the competition of accuracy to their colleagues, even though knowingly valuations are too high. In addition stock funds are only there to keep buying stocks regardless of risks as long as investors give them money to invest.
The Tech heavy Nasdaq Composite opened up 155 points but closed down 205 points today. Is this the beginning of a tech stock correction? Here is a glance of today's market:
让我们回到股票基本面，以下是 Investopedia.com 关于 PE 和 PEG 的论术：
“市盈率 (P/E ratio) 是衡量一家公司当前股价相对于其每股收益 (EPS) 的估值比率。市盈率越高，您支付每一美元的收益的费用就越多。严格来说，从市盈率的角度来看，高市盈率对投资者不利。较高的市盈率意味着您要支付更多的钱来购买公司收益的一部分。
市盈率与盈利成长率比率PEG通过在计算中加入预期收益增长来提高估计股值效益。 PEG 比率被认为是股票真实价值的指标，与市盈率类似，较低的 PEG 可能表明股票被低估。理论上，PEG 比率值为 1 代表市盈率及其预期的盈利增长两者之间的完美市值表达。高于 1 的 PEG 比率通常被认为是不利的，表明股票价值被高估了。相反，低于 1 的比率被认为好，表明股票价值被低估了。 ”
以下是如何使用 PEG 分析股价价值的示例。假设股票XYZ现在的交易价格为100，如果PEG为2或PEG为0.5，这对XYZ是什么样的解读？对于PEG等于2，XYZ估值高出100％，如要回到公允价值，XYZ需要下跌50% 到 50。另一方面，对于 PEG 等于 0.5，如要回到公允价值，XYZ 需要上涨 100%。
下表列出了主要科技公司预期明年的 PE、EPS 增长率和计算得来的 PEG。
代号 前瞻 PE 明年EPS增长率 PEG
AMZN 71 26% 2.73
AAPL 28 3% 9.33
FB 24 2% 12
GOOG 28 5% 5.60
MSFT 32 14% 2.28
NVDA 64 21% 3.04
TSLA 139 35% 3.97
假设分析师的上述共识估计是正确的，主要科技股的 PEG 实在高得令人震惊。这意味着它们的股价被极度高估了。我的经验是PEG正常只是在1 到1.5之间。我担心需要市场崩盘才能使估值恢复正常。你可能会问，它们是如何达到如此疯狂的高估值的。我的猜测是，投资者一直在盲目地带着情绪而不是基于基本面购买股票而把股价推高。分析师们也难辞其咎，因为他们在不断提高这些股票的目标价格，因为他们担心在准确性方面的竞争会输给他们的同事，尽管他们知道估值是过高的。此外，股票基金只会不顾风险地继续购买股票，只要投资者给他们钱进行投资。
科技比重大的股纳斯达克综合指数今天开盘上涨 155 点，但收盘下跌 205 点。 这是科技股调整的开始吗？ 以下是当今市场的概览：
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