Omicron, the latest variant of the virus that originated in South Africa, has caused a new round of concerns about the spread of the virus. Lawrence Young, a virologist and a professor of molecular oncology at Warwick Medical School in the United Kingdom, said the Omicron variant was "very worrying.""It is the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen to date. This variant carries some changes we've seen previously in other variants but never all together in one virus.“ Pfizer said they won't have vaccine for the new virus variant for another 100 days. As of 11 AM Pacific time Sunday, there are now 155 new virus variant Omicron cases (a 55% jump from 2 days ago) world wide involving countries and cities such as South Africa, Botswana, Netherland, Belgium, Austria, England, Hong Kong, Israel, Australia, Denmark, Italy, Belgium, France, Germany and Czech Republic. Dr. Fauci said he wouldn't be surprised if Omicron is already in US US. "The marketplace is worried about two things," Allianz Chief Economic Advisor El-Erian said. "One, that yet another variant of COVID is going to hit them hard, we'll travel less, we'll go out to restaurants less, and we may have additional restrictions that are imposed on us. "and issue number two, the marketplace is worried also that this will cause more inflation, that supply chains will be disrupted even more," El-Erian said. He also said a period of low growth and high inflation, called stagflation, is a growing concern amid the news of the mutated Covid-19 variant. Global stock markets were down big last Friday as fear of the latest virus may slow down global economy.
The Dow and S&P 500 suffered their worst 'Black Friday' selloff in 70 Years.They were down 2.53% and 2.27% respectively. European stocks were down nearly 4% on average. Both HangSeng and Nekkie were down over 2.5% while Shanghai was down 0.56%.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors are down with Energy, Financial, Real Estate, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals and Technology down over 2%.
Most of the S&P 500 stocks are down with only a few up(mainly vaccine developing companies).
Volatility index surged more than 54% on Friday and 60% gain last week. This weekly gain is the biggest in 1 year and 8 months. This is not a small reaction. As a comparison, the VIX gain for the week of February 24 2020 at the onset of Covid-19 is 134%. Is this the beginning of fear similar to what happened in February to March 2020 when the VIX surged 539%?
CNN Money's Fear and Greed indicator drop precipitously from greed to fear in one day. This change is more drastic than the change in February 2020.
Cruel oil were down 13%，US dollar down, while US Treasuries surging as rate hike odd reduces and investors buying as safe haven. Gold is holding up well. Economic sensitive material Copper and Lumber plunged.
Dow and Small Cap indexes dropped below their 50 day moving averages while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped below their 20 day moving averages. 10 Year Treasury yield $TNX dropped to 1.482% from 1.645%. Bitcoin and Ethereum also down big.
The big 6 tech stocks AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG, MSFT and TSLA all have signs of trending down.
Advisors Perspective chart presented a good perspective of the current S&P500 drop from all time high with previous drops. S&P 500 is only 2.34% down from all time high, not a big drop. My worry is that if the latest Omicron virus is worse than Covid-19, the coming stock market correction could be devastating since the Covid-19 caused market drop is 33.92% in 2020.
起源与于南非的最新变种病毒Omicron引起了新一轮病毒传播的担忧。英国华威医学院的病毒学家、分子肿瘤学教授劳伦斯·杨表示，Omicron 变种病毒“非常令人担忧”。 我们之前在其他变体中看到过一些变化，但从来没有在一种病毒中一起出现过。辉瑞表示，他们将在接下来的 100 天内没有针对新病毒变体的疫苗。截至太平洋时间周日上午 11 点，全球现在有 155 例新的病毒变种 Omicron 病例（比两天前增加了 55%），涉及南非、博茨瓦纳、荷兰、比利时、奥地利、英国、香港等国家和城市 、以色列、澳大利亚、丹麦、意大利、比利时、法国、德国和捷克共和国。 Fauci 博士说，如果 Omicron 已经在美国，他不会感到惊讶。 “市场担心两件事，”Allianz首席经济顾问El-Erian说。 “第一，又一个变种的病毒冲击经济，我们会更少旅行，我们会少出去餐馆，我们可能会对我们施加额外的限制。”第二个市场的担心是这将导致更多的通货膨胀，供应链将被扰乱更多“。他还表示一段低增长和高通货膨胀，称为滞胀，是变种病毒带来的一个问题。由于对最新病毒可能会导致全球经济放缓的担忧，上周五全球股市大幅下跌。
道琼斯指数和标准普尔 500 指数遭遇 70 年来最严重的“黑色星期五”抛售，分别下跌 2.53% 和 2.27%。 欧洲股市平均下跌近 4%。 恒生和 Nekkie 均下跌超过 2.5%，而上海则下跌 0.56%。
标准普尔 500 指数的所有 11 个板块均下跌，能源、金融、房地产、工业、周期性消费和科技股下跌超过 2%。
标准普尔 500 指数的大部分股票都下跌，只有少数股票上涨（主要是疫苗开发公司）。
波动指数VIX周五飙升超过 54%，上周上涨了 60%。 这个一周涨幅是 1 年零 8 个月以来的最大涨幅。这不是个小的反应。 相比之下，2020 年 2 月 24 日这一周 Covid-19 开始时的 VIX 涨幅为 134%。 这是否与 2020 年 2 月至 2020 年 3 月 VIX 飙升 539% 开始时的情况类似？
CNN Money 的恐惧和贪婪指标一天就从贪婪到恐惧。 这种变化比2020年2月更戏剧化。
原油下跌 13%，美元下跌，而美国国债因加息几率降低和投资者买入避险资产而飙升。 黄金则保持稳定。对经济敏感的铜及木材均大跌。
道指和小盘股指数跌破 50 天移动平均线，而纳斯达克指数和标准普尔 500 指数跌破 20 天移动平均线。 10 年期国债收益率$TNX 从 1.645% 降至 1.482%。 比特币和以太币也大幅下跌。
6 大科技股AMZN,AAPL,FB,GOOG,MSFT及TSLA均有转跌的趋势。
Advisors Perspective 提供的图表对当前 S&P500 从历史高点的跌幅和之前的跌幅给出了很好的启示。 S&P500 现在只是从历史高位下跌了2.34%， 还是很少。我担心的是，如果最新的 Omicron 病毒比 Covid-19 更糟糕，那么即将到来的股市调整可能是毁灭性的，因为在 2020 年Covid-19 导致的市场跌幅达到 33.92%。
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