3/31/2022 Morning Report.3/31/2022 早报

 Major US stock indexes are down for the second day after the S&P500 rallied over 11% since March low. Today's negative news are:

1. NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says Russia is "not withdrawing, but regrouping" and is not negotiating in good faith.

2.Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer sees recession risk is 25-30%. If recession happens, S&P 500 may drop to 3600. With S&P 500 PE at 21, there is limit upside for stocks. H sets year end S&P 500 target at 4700.

3. Morgan Stanley becomes more cautious of IT hardware  due to risk of negative hardware budget revision, lowers DELL and HPQ targets to 60 and 31 respectively.

4.Barclay downgrades AMD to Equal Weight, price target lowers to 115 from 148.

Technical trend for the S&P 500 is up but needs a pull back. Initial downside target is 4544 (100 DMA) then 4484 (200 DMA). Resistance is 4637. Whether the market can continue to rise depends on the size of the pull back. Dropping below 4484 may mean a much larger fall to follow. 

The weaker Nasdaq Composite may pull back down to 13756 (50 DMA) and it's resistance is 100 DMA level 14612.

在标准普尔 500 指数自 3 月低点以来上涨超过 11% 之后，美国主要股指连续第二天下跌。 今天的负面消息有：

1. 北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格表示，俄罗斯“不是在撤军，而是在重新集结”，并且没有诚意进行谈判。

2. 高盛策略师彼得奥本海默认为经济衰退风险为 25-30%。 如果经济衰退发生，标准普尔 500 指数可能会跌至 3600 点。现在标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率为 21，股票上涨空间有限。奥本海默 将年终标准普尔 500 指数目标定为 4700 点。

3. 摩根士丹利因硬件预算负修正风险而对 IT 硬件更加谨慎，将 DELL 和 HPQ 目标分别下调至 60 和 31。

4.巴克莱将 AMD 评级下调至等权重，目标价从 148 下调至 115。

标准普尔 500 指数的技术趋势为向上，但需要回调。 最初的下行目标是 4544（100 DMA），然后是 4484（200 DMA）。阻力是4637。 市场能否继续上涨，取决于回调幅度。 跌破 4484 可能意味着更大的跌幅。

较弱的纳斯达克综合指数可能回落至 13756 (50 DMA)，其阻力位为 100 DMA 水平 14612。

US Stocks Rallied Too Much, Downside Reversal Likely 美股上涨过多，可能会出现下行逆转

Russia said there was no breakthrough in talks with Ukraine on Tuesday in Istanbul and rejected the use of Crimea as a condition for talks. Russia continued to bombard the vicinity of Kyiv. Yesterday, the two-year Treasury bond rate was almost higher than the 10-year bond rate, and history shows that this phenomenon is likely to bring about an economic downturn. The recent rebound in US stocks may be related to short covering and the funds buying at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The S&P 500 has surged 11.3% in the past 12 days, and now the S&P 500 is only about 4% away from its all-time high. The stock market's strong performance is a serious departure from the economic outlook and against the bearishness of the Federal Reserve's accelerated rate hikes. Big tech PEG ratios are back at highs again: TSLA 7.5, NVDA 2.4, AAPL 2, MSFT 1.9. PEG=1 is a reasonable level. The above situations and the overbought of major indexes are likely for the US stock market to reverse back down.

S&P500 supports are 100 DMA 4545, 200 DMA 4482 and 50% retracement of the previous rally 4397. Resistance is 4637.

The Nasdaq Composite supports are 50 DMA 13757 and 20 DMA 13576. Resistance is 200 DMA 14729.

Dow Jones Industrial supports are 100 DMA 35081 and 200 DMA 34989. Resistance is 37737.

俄罗斯表示，周二在伊斯坦布尔与乌克兰的谈判没有取得突破，并拒绝将克里米亚作为谈判的条件。俄罗斯继续轰炸基辅附近。昨天，两年期国债利率几乎高于十年期国债利率，历史表明这种现象很可能带来经济下滑。美股近期的反弹可能与空头回补以及月底和月初的资金买盘有关。标准普尔 500 指数在过去 12 天里飙升了 11.3%，而现在标准普尔 500 指数距离历史高点仅差 4% 左右。股市的强劲表现与经济前景严重背离，与美联储加速加息的利空作对。大型科技公司的 PEG 比率再次回到高位：TSLA 7.5、NVDA 2.4、AAPL 2、MSFT 1.9。 PEG=1 是一个合理的水平。上述情况和主要股指的超买情况，很可能会导致美国股市反转回落。

标普 500指数 支撑位是 100 日均线 4545、200 日均线 4482 和之前反弹幅度的的 50% 回撤位4397 。阻力位是 4637。

纳斯达克综合指数支撑位是 50 DMA 13757 和 20 DMA 13576。阻力位是 200 DMA 14729。

道琼斯工业平均指数支撑位是 100 DMA 35081 和 200 DMA 34989。阻力位是 37737。

Has US Stock Market Bottomed？美股已经见底了吗？

The S&P 500  has regained its 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, while the Nasdaq and Dow have recovered above their 20 and 50-day moving averages. Major indices are also forming bullishDouble-Bottom patterns at their February lows. Technically, the U.S. stock market has turned from a downtrend to an uptrend in the short and medium term. Big tech stocks were particularly strong. Goldman Sachs and Wedbush analysts are bullish on AAPL iPhone sales. TSLA's mega manufacturing plant in Germany started building cars. NVDA announced a series of new products yesterday, a system of 20 Hopper H100 GPUs connected together is able to handle global Internet traffic. These three stocks will likely support tech stocks uptrend. Separately, the market has no fear of the outlook that the Fed will raise interest rates by a total of 1% in May and July. The Russia-Ukraine war would have two outcomes: a negotiated peace and  Russia take control of Ukraine completely. I think both outcomes will likely be a relief for the stock market. It seems that the market has already largely reacted to the bad situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Dow resistance is 35,000, support 34445. Nasdaq resistance is 14721, support 4484. S&P resistance is 4600, support 4484. Since the stock market has risen 6 days already, today's market pull back is healthy for more upside.  The key for the stock market to continue its upside is for major market indexes to hold their 50 day moving averages. They are Dow 34445, S&P 500 4420 and Nasdaq 13812. If the market correction is limited, the market strategy may need to shift from selling on rallies to buying on dips.

标普500已经向上收复了20，50及200日均线，而纳指及道指则已收复20及50日均线。各大指数也都在它们的2月份低位造成了看涨的双低形态。技术上短中期美股已从跌势转为升势。大型科技股尤为强劲。高盛及Wedbush分析师均看好 AAPL iPhone销量。TSLA在德国的超大型制造厂建成开工。NVDA 昨日宣布一系列新产品，20 个Hopper H100 GPU连起来的系统可掌控全球互联网交通。这三只股票将支撑科技股。另外，市场对联 储在5月及7月份将加息共1%的展望毫无恐惧。俄乌战争会有两个结果：讲和停战及俄国完成控制乌克兰。我觉得两个结果对美股都是利好。现在看来市场对俄乌战争的坏情况已经大部份反应过。目前道指阻力是35000, 支撑34445。纳指阻力是14721，支撑13812。标普阻力是4600，支撑4484。美股最近已连升6天，今天的市场回落是健康的，对准备更多的升势有帮助。股市继续上涨的关键是主要市场指数能守住50日均线。 它们是道琼斯指数 34445、标准普尔 500 指数 4420 和纳斯达克指数 13812。如果市场调整有限，市场策略可能要从逢高卖出转为逢低买入。