US Stocks Rallied Too Much, Downside Reversal Likely 美股上涨过多，可能会出现下行逆转

Russia said there was no breakthrough in talks with Ukraine on Tuesday in Istanbul and rejected the use of Crimea as a condition for talks. Russia continued to bombard the vicinity of Kyiv. Yesterday, the two-year Treasury bond rate was almost higher than the 10-year bond rate, and history shows that this phenomenon is likely to bring about an economic downturn. The recent rebound in US stocks may be related to short covering and the funds buying at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The S&P 500 has surged 11.3% in the past 12 days, and now the S&P 500 is only about 4% away from its all-time high. The stock market's strong performance is a serious departure from the economic outlook and against the bearishness of the Federal Reserve's accelerated rate hikes. Big tech PEG ratios are back at highs again: TSLA 7.5, NVDA 2.4, AAPL 2, MSFT 1.9. PEG=1 is a reasonable level. The above situations and the overbought of major indexes are likely for the US stock market to reverse back down.

S&P500 supports are 100 DMA 4545, 200 DMA 4482 and 50% retracement of the previous rally 4397. Resistance is 4637.

The Nasdaq Composite supports are 50 DMA 13757 and 20 DMA 13576. Resistance is 200 DMA 14729.

Dow Jones Industrial supports are 100 DMA 35081 and 200 DMA 34989. Resistance is 37737.

俄罗斯表示，周二在伊斯坦布尔与乌克兰的谈判没有取得突破，并拒绝将克里米亚作为谈判的条件。俄罗斯继续轰炸基辅附近。昨天，两年期国债利率几乎高于十年期国债利率，历史表明这种现象很可能带来经济下滑。美股近期的反弹可能与空头回补以及月底和月初的资金买盘有关。标准普尔 500 指数在过去 12 天里飙升了 11.3%，而现在标准普尔 500 指数距离历史高点仅差 4% 左右。股市的强劲表现与经济前景严重背离，与美联储加速加息的利空作对。大型科技公司的 PEG 比率再次回到高位：TSLA 7.5、NVDA 2.4、AAPL 2、MSFT 1.9。 PEG=1 是一个合理的水平。上述情况和主要股指的超买情况，很可能会导致美国股市反转回落。

标普 500指数 支撑位是 100 日均线 4545、200 日均线 4482 和之前反弹幅度的的 50% 回撤位4397 。阻力位是 4637。

纳斯达克综合指数支撑位是 50 DMA 13757 和 20 DMA 13576。阻力位是 200 DMA 14729。

道琼斯工业平均指数支撑位是 100 DMA 35081 和 200 DMA 34989。阻力位是 37737。