Chance Of Stock Market Making New High May Have Lost 股市创造新高的机会可能已经失去

After Saturday's attack on Saudi's second-biggest oil field in Khurais, US WTI crude prices surged  nearly 15%, the largest one day move in history. Oil and gas exploration 3X ETF GUSH is up nearly 32%. Oil traders obviously seeing more troubles to come in the Middle East. (The latest news:American intelligence indicates that the attack on a major Saudi oil facility originated in Iran, three people familiar with the intelligence told NBC News — an assessment that is likely to escalate tensions between Washington and Tehran.) The troubles ahead may be it may take a longer time to repair the refinery's damage and US and Saudi may decide to strike Iran.  Interruption on global oil supply and heighten geographic risk are the worries.

Meanwhile,  China's economy slowed further in August, indicating current stimulus policies may not be enough to shield the economy from the worsening effects of the trade war with the US.  China's Industrial output rose 4.4% from a year earlier, versus a median estimate of 5.2%. Retail sales Expanded 7.5%, compared to a projected 7.9% increase. Fixed-asset investment slowed to 5.5% in the first eight months, versus a forecast 5.7%.

However, the strange thing is especially calm as major US stock market indexes are down only less than 0.4% on average, and they are only a little over 1% from their all time highs. Why is the complacency? May be investors like the fact that interest rate is low worldwide as most world's central banks are lowering their interest rate.  But all these central bank easing are well known and have been reflected in the market.  One explanation is that equity fund capitals have no where to go since their prospectus required them to buy stock regardless of risk. Another possibility is investors underestimating the impact of the Saudi oil refinery attack.

Stock market's behavior is hard to fathom at times. But I think the risk and reward is not suitable to chase the market higher and would be really cautious about the stock market at this juncture.  The chance of stock market making all time high may have came and gone as global oil supply interrupted, geographic risk heightens, global economy slows, US/China trade war is on going, Washington is reportedly preparing to announce tariffs on billions of euros of goods from the European Union and stock price is rising as earnings deteriorate. There are too many negatives out there, the present stable stock market may just be calm before the storm. It may not be a bad idea to consider to buy TVIX, GUSH and NUGT for profits.

周六袭击沙特在Khurais的第二大油田后，美国WTI原油价格均飙升近15％，这是历史上最大的一天涨幅。原油及天然气开发板块3X ETF GUSH上涨近32％。石油炒家显然觉得中东还会有更多的麻烦。(最新消息：美国情报部门表示，袭击主要的沙特石油设施来自伊朗，三名知情人士告诉NBC新闻 - 这一评估可能会加剧华盛顿与德黑兰之间的紧张关系。）
现在市场面对的麻烦可能是需要更长的时间来修复炼油厂的损坏及美国和沙特可能会决定打击伊朗。全球石油供应中断和地域风险加剧是令人担忧的问题。

与此同时，中国经济在8月进一步放缓，表明当前的刺激政策可能不足以保护经济免受与美国贸易战的恶化影响。中国工业产出较上年同期增长4.4％，而中位数估计为5.2％。零售额增长7.5％，预计增长7.9％。固定资产投资在今年前八个月放缓至5.5％，而预测为5.7％。

然而，奇怪的是美股表现特别平静，美国主要股票指数平均只下跌0.4％，而且距离历史最高点只有1％多一点。为什么乐观？可能是投资者喜见球利率低的事实，因为大多数世界各国央行都在降低利率。但所有这些央行的宽松政策都是众所周知的，并已反映在市场中。一个解释是股票基金资本无处可去，因为他们的招股说明书要求他们一定要购买股票而不管风险如何。另一种可能是投资者低估了沙特炼油厂袭击的影响。

股市的行为有时难以理解。但我会非常谨慎，觉得在这个时刻追逐高涨的市场的风险与回报 不合适。随着全球石油供应中断，地域风险加剧，全球经济放缓，美国/中国贸易战正在进行，华盛顿据报导准备宣布对数十亿欧元商品征收关税，企业收益恶化而股价却上涨，这些负面因素显示股票市场创出历史新高的机会可能已得而复失。目前股市的稳定可能只是风暴来临之前的平静。考虑参与TVIX，GUSH和NUGT获取利润可能不是坏主意。