Oil Price Surging After Saudi Refinery Attack 沙特炼油厂遭袭击后油价飙升

Saudi Aramco lost about 5.7 million barrels per day of output after several unmanned aerial vehicles on Saturday struck the world's biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom's second-biggest oil field in Khurais. This cut Saudi Arabia's production by half and world supply reduces by 5% .  It may take weeks to restore normal production, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trump's tweet looks ready to go to war with Iran: "The Arabian oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!"

In Sunday's early future trading WTI oil price rises nearly $6/barrel.

Followings are assorted comments by analysts:


Rapid McAally, Rapidan Energy:
"Today's attack on the Abqaiq processing facility identified the most important oil bullish, stock bearish and negative global growth risks. According to reports, Aramco said it expects production to restart quickly, indicating that the damage may be light. Even if it turns out to be like this, for example The Iranian agent’s crownless shameless attack on the energy system of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will increase the overall geopolitical risk premium. “ In a seven-day disruption scenario, crude oil prices will soar at least $15-20 per barrel and enter a 30-day scenario. Three digits in the middle.

Greg Newman, Onyx Commodities
Expects Brent futures to open $2 per barrel up and close $7 to $10 per barrel higher on Monday. The market could see a return to $100 per barrel if the issue cannot be resolved in the short term.

Christy Malek, JP Morgan
"I'd expect a $3-$5 move in oil prices in the short term. The market has been sleep-walking in risk premium in the region, disproportionately focusing on risk to demand growth and shale oil supply." "This attack introduces a New, irreversible risk premium into the market." Expects oil to rise to $80-90 a barrel over the next three-six months as the market turns its focus to geopolitics.

Tilak Doshi, Muse & Stancil
"In the oil universe, this attack is perhaps equivalent to the 9/11 attacks ... Abqaiq is easily the world's single most important oil production and processing infrastructure site." "This puts Iran's wars-by-proxy in the region squarely in The centre of the security concerns of the Middle East." "For Asian governments, perhaps this overtakes the perennial concern about the safety of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz with even more serious concerns about the impact of a direct breakout of hostilities between the Saudi alliance and Iran." "Governments throughout the Asian region will perhaps now be more supportive of the US administration's tough deposition regime on Iran." ("Asian countries are more at immediate risk because they are the big importers from Saudi Arabia, with 80 % of Saudi exports going to East Asia. )






周六被几架无人驾驶飞机袭击在Khuraiss 沙特第二大油田及世界上最大的Abqaiq原油加工厂后，沙特阿美公司每天产量损失约570万桶。这使沙特阿拉伯的原油产量减少了一半，将全球约5％的供应量从市场上撤下。据知情人士透露，恢复正常生产可能需要数周时间。特朗普推文显示可能会与伊朗开战：“沙特阿拉伯的石油供应遭到袭击。 有理由相信我们知道谁是罪魁祸首，目标已被被锁定和装载已准备就绪，只等待验证。等待听到沙特王国关于他们认为是这次袭击的原因与人，以及我们将在什么条件下进行！” 在周日的早期起货交易中，WTI原油价格上涨近6美元/桶。

以下是分析师们的评论：

Rapid McAally，Rapidan Energy：
“今天对Abqaiq加工厂的攻击确定了最重要的油价看涨，股票看跌和全球负面增长风险。据报道，Aramco表示，预计生产将迅速重启，表明损害可能很轻。即使结果是就像这样，例如，伊朗特工对沙特阿拉伯王国能源系统的无耻攻击将增加整体地缘政治风险溢价。“ 在七天的中断情况下，原油价格将飙升至少15-20美元桶，在30天的中断情况下油价会升至三位数。

Greg Newman，Onyx Commodities
布伦特原油期货周一开盘会上涨2美元而收于每桶7美元至10美元。如果问题在短期内无法解决，油价可能会回到每桶100美元。

Christy Malek，JPMorgan Chase
“我预计短期内油价将上升3到5美元间 。这个市场的风险溢价一直在下滑，不成比例地关注需求增长和页岩油供应的风险。 这次袭击给市场带来了新的，不可逆转的风险溢价。随着市场将焦点转向地缘政治，油价预计未来三到六个月将升至每桶80-90美元。”

Tilak Doshi，Muse和Stancil
“在石油世界，这次袭击可能相当于9/11袭击...... Abqaiq是世界上最重要的石油生产和加工基础设施站点。这使伊朗代理战争成为该中东安全问题的核心。对于亚洲各国政府来说，沙特联盟与伊朗之间直接敌对行动更严重的影响可能已经取代了对霍尔木兹海峡油轮运输安全的长期担忧。整个亚洲地区现在可能会更加支持美国政府对伊朗的强硬制裁措施。” （“亚洲国家风险更大因为它们是沙特阿拉伯的主要进口国，沙特阿拉伯80％的出口产品流向东亚。”）