The S&P 500 has been down 5 days in a row this week. It is down a total of only 1.7% for the week. During the past 9 trading days it was evident that buy on dips were active, however they were all met by larger selloffs. The overall result is a down market and this means the dip buyings are no longer able to sustain the market's up trend. Friday's drop is the biggest in the last 5 down days. Some of the events that triggered Friday's selloff are:
1. August Producer Price Index increased for the 8th straight month and year over year increase is 8.3%, the largest 12 month increase since the data were first calculated in November 2010.
2. Goldman Sachs lowered Q3 GDP projection from August 20 estimate of 5.5% to 3.5%.
3. US Treasuries are down and yields are rising.
4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below its 50 day moving average 2 days in a row.
5. The S&P 500 dropped below its 20 day moving average.
6. Apple Inc. (AAPL) dropped over 3% after U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez-Rogers ruled against Apple, saying that the company must let app developers direct their customers to alternate payment methods outside of the App Store.
7. Tesla (TSLA) dropped 2.46% after report says Cathay Wood has been selling the stock.
8. Alphabet (GOOG) dropped 2.07%. The DOJ is reportedly preparing another lawsuit against Alphabet in addition to the legal action from October 2020 under the previous administration.
With the Dow and NYSE Composite ($NYA) dropping below their critical 50 day moving average and the S&P 500 below 20 day moving average and major tech stocks are reversing and dropping big, a market selloff likely has begun. For the S&P 500, a drop to 50 day moving average 4424 would be a 2.7% drop from all time high, a drop of 5% from all time high would mean a drop to 4318 and a drop to 200 day moving average 4082 would mean a drop of 10.2% from all time high. A shallow drop of 2.7% doesn't look reasonable and I think at least a drop of 5 to 10% from all time high is likely.
Dip buyings have been failing:
标准普尔 500 指数本周已连续 5 天下跌。本周累计仅下跌了 1.7%。在过去的 9 个交易日中，明显逢低买进活跃，但都遭遇了更大的抛售。总体结果是市场下跌，这意味着逢低买入不再能够维持市场的上涨趋势。周五的跌幅是过去 5 天跌幅最大的。引发周五抛售的一些事件是：
1. 8月生产者价格指数连续第8个月上涨，同比上涨8.3%，是自2010年11月首次计算数据以来的最大12个月涨幅。
2. 高盛将第三季度 GDP 预测从 8 月 20 日的 5.5% 下调至 3.5%。
3. 美国国债下跌，收益率上升。
4. 道琼斯工业平均指数连续 2 天低于 50 天移动平均线。
5. 标准普尔 500 指数跌破 20 天移动平均线。
6. 苹果公司 (AAPL) 下跌超过 3%，此前美国地方法官伊冯娜·冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯 (Yvonne Gonzalez-Rogers) 对苹果作出裁决，称该公司必须让应用开发商指导其客户使用 App Store 以外的其他支付方式。
7. 报道称Cathy Wood一直在出售Tesla股票后，特斯拉 (TSLA) 下跌 2.46%。
8. Alphabet (GOOG) 下跌 2.07%。据报道，除了前任政府从 2020 年 10 月开始的法律诉讼之外，司法部正在准备另一项针对 Alphabet 的诉讼。
随着道琼斯指数及纽约证交所综合指数跌破关键的 50 天移动平均线，标准普尔 500 指数跌破 20 天移动平均线及主要科技股的大幅反转下跌，市场抛售可能已经开始。对于标准普尔 500 指数而言，跌至 50 天移动平均线 4424 将意味着从历史高点下跌 2.7%，从历史高点下跌 5% 将意味着跌至 4318水平，跌至 200 天移动平均线 4082 意味着从历史最高点下跌 10.2%。以目前情况看来 2.7% 的小幅下跌看起来并不合理，我认为可能会从历史最高点最小下跌 5% 至 10%。
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