Seeking Alpha: “In Goldman Sachs' worst case scenario, a 10% decline in the Russian ruble would push the S&P 500 down another 6%, with several more percentage points of weakness seen in Europe. Deutsche Bank also pointed out that typical geopolitical selloffs are usually around 6%-8% on average, taking three weeks for stocks to bottom and another three for them to recover. Besides escalating tensions between Moscow and Kyiv, Wall Street is also dealing with a surge in inflation and quantitative tightening. Investors have been trying to size up the Fed's path forward in recent months and some economists are warning that inflation could even top 10% should Russian actions result in an energy supply shock. Bets on aggressive rate hikes are moving up again in response, with swaps traders now pricing in a better than 35% chance of a half-point move in March, up from under 15% earlier this week. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has also suggested a 50 bps increase could be in the cards if the ne xt inflation readings come in too high.”
My take is TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA valuations are still too high. Their PEG is too high, they are 7.69, 1.84, 1.76 and 1.75 respectively while the normal PEG should be around 1. And they all have terrible charts. They will likely continue to be sold and will be the stocks that drag the market down.
Conclusion: Big tech stocks will still be falling, the Fed's meeting starting on March 15 will decide to raise interest rates as inflation continue to rise, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the economic sanctions against Russia by the United States and European allies will intensify. Major indexes' January lows will struggle to hold, although there may be some technical rebound there. However, there is basically no incentive for the market bounce to last.
Seeking Alpha：“假如俄乌开战，高盛的最坏情况是俄罗斯卢布下跌 10% 将使标准普尔 500 指数再下跌 6%，欧洲将出现更多个百分点的疲软。德意志银行指出，典型的地缘政治抛售通常平均在 6%-8% 左右，股市需要三周时间才能触底，另外需要三周时间才能恢复。除了莫斯科和基辅之间不断升级的紧张局势外，华尔街也在应对通胀飙升和量化紧缩。近几个月来，投资者一直试图评估美联储的前进道路，一些经济学家警告称，如果俄罗斯的行动导致能源供应冲击，通胀甚至可能超过 10%。作为回应，对激进加息的押注再次上升，Swap交易员现在预计 3 月份加息 0.5 个百分点的可能性高于 35%，高于本周早些时候的不到 15%。美联储理事米歇尔鲍曼还暗示，如果下一个通胀数据太高，可能会加息 50 个基点。”
我的估计是TSLA，AAPL，MSFT，NVDA估值还是过高。它们的PEG分别是过高的7.69，1.84，1.76及1.75 而正常的PEG应该是1附近。另外，它们的图表实在是不可恭维。它们将会继续被抛售，将是拖累大市下跌的股票。
结论：大科技股还要跌，通胀继续攀升，联储3月15开始的会议将决定加息， 俄乌情况及美国和欧洲盟国对俄国的经济制裁会愈演越烈, 继续变坏。各大指数的一月低位将难以守稳，尽管在哪里或还会有些技术性反弹。市场基本上没有借口能维持上升。
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