The Nasdaq Composite has dropped 19.57% from its all time high of 16212 in November 2021 to today's close 13037. It looks likely that it may enter bear market territory tomorrow by down more than 20% from all time high since the Nasdaq 100 index future is dropping sharply by over 341 points in after hour trading.
Source: Finviz.com
To project how far the Nasdaq Composite might go down to, I am drawing Fibonacci lines dividing the rise from March 2020 low to November 2021 high in the weekly chart. I see that the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels are sitting at 12552, 11422 and 10291 levels respectively. These will represent -22.8%, -29.6% and -36.5% respectively from all time high. Since the first level (12552, down 22.8% from all time high) is so close, it will likely be reached immediately. Next is retracing 50% of the rise to 11422 and it represent 29.6% down from all time high and it is a normal stopping point. However, if the market is weak, it may retrace 61.8% of the rise down to 10291 level which represents a 36.5% drop from all time high. I am projecting the Nasdaq Composite will likely go down to between 11422 to 10291 area.
纳斯达克综合指数从 2021 年 11 月的历史高点 16212 下跌 19.57% 至今天的收盘价 13037。因为纳斯达克 100 指数期货盘后大跌逾341点，纳斯达克综合指数明天可能会从历史高点下跌超过 20% 而进入熊市。
为了预测纳斯达克综合指数可能下跌的幅度，我在周线图中绘制了斐波那契线，将 2020 年 3 月的低点与到 2021 年 11 月的高点的涨幅分割。我看到 38.2%、50% 和 61.8% 的回撤水平分别位于 12552、11422 和 10291 水平。这些将分别代表从历史最高点-22.8%、-29.6%和-36.5%。由于第一个回撤水平（12552，从历史高点下跌 22.8%）是如此接近，很可能会立即达到。接下来是回撤50% 的涨幅至 11422，它代表从历史高点下跌29.6%，这是一个正常的止跌点。然而，如果市场疲软，它可能会回撤涨幅的61.8%至 10291 水平，即从历史高点下跌 36.5%。我预计纳斯达克综合指数可能会跌至 11422 至 10291 区域之间。
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