Friday, February 4, 2022

Don't Fight Market Trend, Don't Fight Interest Rate Trend 不与市场趋势作对,不与利率走势作对

After 4 days of strong bounce, worse than expected FB earnings report terminated the bounce as major market indexes dropped big on Wednesday. Better than expected AMZN earnings report gave hope for better market today. However much stronger Non-Farm Payroll report raised odd of faster rate hike by the Federal Reserve take priority as stock market sold off after early rally. In response to the stronger payroll report, the 10 year treasury yield is at 1.921%, the highest in 2 years. The present state of the US stock market is in solid downtrend, strategy is still sell on rallies. The motto is don't fight the market trend and don't fight the higher interest trend!




The Dow Jones Industrial Average drop the most today leading the other indexes down. It has dropped below its 200 day moving average support and formed bearish Head and Shoulder Top pattern. It looks destine to test the January low at 33150. 



The S&P 500 also formed Head and Shoulder top, it is dropping towards its 200 day moving average level at 4444. Its downtrend will likely accelerate once it goes below this level. Its January low support is 4223.



As for the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite, it is the worst looking chart of the three indexes. It is now below its 20,50,100 and 200 day moving averages, all trends are down. Its January low support is 13095.







在经历了 4 天的强劲反弹之后,主要市场指数周三大幅下跌,低于预期的 FB 收益报告终止了这波反弹。昨日下午好于预期的 AMZN 收益报告为今天的市场带来了希望。然而,强劲的非农就业报告增加了美联储加快加息的可能性,股市在早盘反弹后被抛售。回应强劲的就业报告,10 年期国债收益率为 1.921%,为 2 年来最高。美股目前处于稳健下行趋势,策略仍是逢高卖出。现在的炒股座右铭是不与市场趋势作对,不与高利率趋势作做作对!




道琼斯工业平均指数今日跌幅最大,引领其他指数下跌。它已跌破其 200 日均线支撑并形成看跌的头肩顶形态。它看起来注定要测试 33150 的 1 月低点。




标准普尔 500 指数也形成了头肩顶,正在跌向其 200 日移动平均线 4444 点水平。一旦跌破该水平,其下行趋势将会加速。其 1 月低点支撑位为 4223。




至于科技股含量高的纳斯达克综合指数,它有三个指数中看起来最差的图表。它现在是低于其 20,50,100 和 200 日移动平均线,所有趋势都看跌。其 1 月低点支撑位为 13095。




No comments:

Post a Comment