Another Bear Market Rally Ended 又一个熊市反弹结束

After 6 days and on average 7% rally from their June lows, major market indexes failed to break above their 20 day moving average resistances and are turning back down. Another bear market rally has ended. Now the indexes are all below their 20,50 and 200 day moving averages, their short, intermediate and long term trends are all down. They are likely to go down and test their June low prices again. June lows for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are 29912, 3636 and 10565. Q2 earning season is around the corner, weakness in earnings and downbeat future projections and interest rate hike in July are likely to drag the stock market lower. There is no signed for a bottom yet as the Fear Gauge VIX is still at around 30 while the VIX levels for previous market bottoms were ranging from 41 to 85.  Don't fight market trend, don't fight interest rate trend are the mottos to follow, strategy is sell on rallies. 

Due to heavy losses in today's European stock markets, it is not likely the US stock market can stop falling today. As of 7 AM Pacific time: Dax -2.66%, FTSE 2.49%, CAC -2.74%.

在从 6 月低点平均上涨 6 天,7% 后，主要市场指数未能突破 20 天移动平均线阻力水平而开始回落。另一个熊市反弹已经结束。现在各大指数都在它们的20,50和200日均线下方，短期、中期和长期趋势都在跌势中。他们很可能会继续下跌并再次测试他们的六月低点。道琼斯指数、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数 6 月的低点分别为 29912、3636 和 10565。第二季度财报季即将到来，盈利疲软、对未来的悲观预测以及 7 月联储的加息都可能会拖累股市走低。同时美股目前还没有触底迹象，因为恐惧指标 VIX 仍处于 30 左右，而之前市场底部的 VIX 水平在 41 至 85 之间。不要与市场趋势作对，不要与利率趋势作对是目前应付市场的座右铭，策略是逢高卖出。

由于今天欧洲股市遭受重创，美国股市今天止跌的可能性不大。截至太平洋时间上午 7 点：Dax -2.66%，FTSE 2.49%，CAC -2.74%。