Technical Look At Mega Cap Techs 大科技股的技术评估

Mega cap tech stocks have finished rebounding after the first leg down of a Continuation Down pattern and have just started their 2nd leg down. The followings are technical looks for each of them: 

Amazon (AMZN 3078)

AMZN is 13.35% below its all time high and is below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. CCI below the -100 level is indicative of accelerating down turn. AMZN just started the 2nd leg down of a Continuation Down pattern.  It is reasonable to assume that it will likely go down to the 20% below all time high level at 2842.

Google (GOOG 1521)

GOOG is 12.3% below its all time high and is below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.  GOOG just started the 2nd leg down of a Continuation Down pattern. It is reasonable to assume that it will likely go down to the 20% below all time high level at 1386.

Microsoft (MSFT 205.05)

MSFT is 11.94% below its all time high and is below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.  MSFT just started the 2nd leg down of a Continuation Down pattern.  It is reasonable to assume that it will likely go down to the 20% below all time high level at 186.

Netflix (NFLX 483.66)

NFLX is 15.83% below its all time high and is below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. NFLX just started the 2nd leg down of a Continuation Down pattern.  It is reasonable to assume that it will likely go down to the 20% below all time high level at 460.

Apple (AAPL 112.13)

AAPL is 18.84% below its all time high.It is below its 20 day moving average but above its 50 day moving average level  at 110.  AAPL has just started the 2nd leg down of a Continuation Down pattern. The 110 level is likely to drop through since it is so close. It is reasonable to assume that it will likely go down to next support level at 100 and that would be 27.54% below its all time high level .

Nvidia (NVDA 500.58)

NVDA is 15.11% below its all time high. It is below its 20 day moving average but is above its 50 day moving average.  NVDA has just started the 2nd leg down of a Continuation Down pattern. Its next level of support is 50 day moving average level at 463, which would be -21.39% from its all time high level.

Facebook (FB 263.52)

FB is 13.51% below its all time high. It is above  its 20 day moving average but still above its 50 day moving average.  FB has just started the 2nd leg down of a Continuation Down pattern. Its next level of support is 50 day moving average level at 263. Since it is so close and is likely to drop through. Its 20% down from its all time high level is 245.

继下跌继续形态的第一波下跌之后，大型股科技股已经完成了反弹，并且刚刚开始第二波下跌。以下是它们的技术情况：

亚马逊（AMZN 3078）

AMZN从历史高位下跌了13.35％，并低于其20天和50天移动平均线。 CCI低于-100水平表示有加速向下的趋向。 AMZN刚刚开始了下跌继续形态的第二波下跌。可以合理地假设它可能会跌至距离历史最高水平以下20％的2842水平。

谷歌（GOOG 1521）

GOOG比其历史最高水平低12.3％，并且低于其20天和50天移动平均线。 GOOG刚刚开始了下跌继续形态的第二波下跌。可以合理地假设它很可能会跌至距离历史最高水平以下 20％的1386水平。

微软（MSFT 205.05）

MSFT比其历史最高水平低11.94％，并且低于其20天和50天移动平均线。 MSFT刚刚开始了下跌继续形态的第二波下跌。可以合理地假设它可能会跌至距离历史最高水平以下 20％的186水平。

Netflix（NFLX 483.66）

NFLX比历史最高水平低15.83％，并且低于其20天和50天移动平均线。 NFLX刚刚开始了下跌继续形态的第二波下跌。可以合理地假设它可能会跌至距离历史最高水平以下20％的460水平。

苹果（AAPL 112.13）

AAPL比历史最高点低18.84％。它跌破了20日移动平均线，但仍高于其位于110的50天移动平均线。 AAPL刚刚开始了下跌继续形态的第二波下跌。110价位如此接近，很可能会跌穿。可以合理地假设它可能会跌至下一个支撑位100，这将是比其历史最高水平低27.54％。

英伟达（NVDA 500.58）

NVDA比历史最高水平低15.11％。它低于其20天移动平均线，但仍高于其50天移动平均线。 NVDA刚刚开始了下跌继续形态的第二波下跌。它的下一个支撑位是50日移动平均线463水平，这将是比其历史最高水平低21.39％。

脸书（FB 263.52）

FB比其历史最高水平低13.51％。它高于其20天移动均线，但仍高于其50天移动均线。 FB刚刚开始了下跌继续形态的第二波下跌。它的下一个支撑位是50日移动平均线263。由于它是如此的接近而很可能会跌穿，下一个支撑是245，是距离历史最高水平以下20％的水平。

Trade MYO For Short Term Profit MYO 可短期操作获利

Myomo, Inc., (MYO 5.17 +35.34%) a wearable medical robotics company, designs, develops, and produces myoelectric orthotics for people with neuromuscular disorders in the United States. The company sells its products to orthotics and prosthetics providers, the Veterans Health Administration, rehabilitation hospitals, and distributors .

1. Company's products are certified for Medicare. Sales likely will increase greatly.

2. MYO gapped up today with over 370 times relative volume and +32% price gain, a tremendous upside momentum. 

3. It is a small cap company with only 3 million shares flow. This kind of small share flow can easily get bid up.

4. The highest price for MYO was near $700 in  June 2017 and the lowest was $2.82 in March this year. At one point investors were very bullish on it.

5. Company basically has no long term debt and  with current ratio at a very healthy 4.7.

6. Valuations are good: Price to Sales is 3.35,  Price to Book is 1.5, Price to Cash is 1.8  and next year earning growth is 47.8%.

7.  Technically, price jumped to 5 month high with huge price movement and mega huge volume, its upside momentum likely continue. Short term resistance is $5.80 but its so close and should be able to break through easily. If it breaks above $5.80, a double is possible  giving it time. 

Myomo，Inc.（MYO 5.06 + 32％）是一家可穿戴医疗机器人公司，为美国神经肌肉疾病患者设计，开发和生产肌电矫形器。该公司将其产品出售给矫形和假肢提供商，退伍军人健康管理局，康复医院和分销商。

1.公司产品已通过Medicare认证。销售量可能会大大增加。

2. MYO今天以370倍的相对交易量和+ 32％的价格跳空上升 ，这是一个巨大的上涨动能。

3.这是一家只有300万股流通量的小型公司。这种少量的股份流很容易被推高。

4. 2017年6月，MYO的最高价格接近700美元，而今年3月的最低价格为2.82美元。投资者曾一度非常看好它。

5.公司基本上没有长期债务，流动比率为非常健康的4.7。

6.估值不错：股价/销售为3.35，股价/帐面价值为1.5，股价/现金为1.8，明年收入增长为47.8％。

7.从技术上讲，价格随着巨大的价格变动和巨大的交易量跃升至5个月高位，其上升势头很可能会持续。短期阻力位是5.80美元，但它是如此接近，应该可以轻松突破。如果它突破$ 5.80，给予时间，股票翻倍的可能性大。

People Are Forgetting What Will Happen In 10 Days人们忘记了10天后会发生什么

President Donald Trump issued an executive order to ban WeChat on August 6 in 45 days. Well, time flies that 45 day deadline is only 10 days away. The followings remind us what are the impacts going to be. They include Apple will be negatively impacted and US-China tension will intensify.

ZeroHedge, August 28：

In a rare comment about potentially boycotting American products, China's foreign ministry spokesman warned Friday if the Trump administration goes ahead with a ban on the popular messaging app WeChat, from mid-September on, then it would result in Chinese consumers ditching iPhones and other Apple products. "If WeChat is banned, then there will be no reason why Chinese shall keep iPhone and apple products," Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijan tweeted. President Trump's executive order banning WeChat in the coming weeks would not just stoke further tensions between both superpowers, but also could lead to a massive hit for the world's most valuable company, Apple. 

TF International Securities' Ming-Chi Kuo laid out in a note, the potential impact on Apple sales if a WeChat ban was seen. He said the hit would be absolutely devastating for Apple, resulting in a possible 25-30% annual decline in global phone shipments.  

"For most Chinese people in China, WeChat is a sort of all-in-one app: a way to swap stories, talk to old classmates, pay bills, coordinate with co-workers, post envy-inducing vacation photos, buy stuff and get news. For the millions of members of China's diaspora, it is the bridge that links them to the trappings of home, from family chatter to food photos."

CNBC, August 7：

President Donald Trump issued an executive order Thursday night (August 6) that would place a ban on business transactions with WeChat. WeChat is the primary service people in the US use to talk with friends and family in China, since US-based apps are already banned there. If Trump's executive order goes through, people in the US would have effectively no free way to talk to friends and loved ones in China. 

CNN, August 8：

"Tencent (TCEHY)'s popular messaging app could now be banned in the US if the company doesn't agree to sell it by mid-September, as required by an executive order issued Thursday. WeChat is the latest target in President Trump's rapidly escalating tech war with China, which has also put short-form video app TikTok under fire. The news has shaken Chinese Americans and anyone with ties to China who rely on the app as the main way of keeping in touch with family and friends there. WeChat, called Weixin in China, functions like Facebook (FB), LinkedIn, Uber (UBER), Instagram and several other apps all rolled into one. For many Chinese people, WeChat is an indispensable app for connecting with the world." 

唐纳德·特朗普总统于8月6日发布了一项行政命令，45天后禁止使用微信。好吧，时光飞逝，距45天的最后期限只有10天了。以下内容提醒我们将会产生什么影响。其中包括苹果将受到负面影响及中美紧张局势将加剧。

ZeroHedge，8月28日：

中国外交部发言人周五警告称，如果特朗普政府从9月中旬开始禁止流行的短信应用程序WeChat，那将导致中国消费者放弃iPhone和其他苹果手机及产品。外交部发言人赵立建在推特上说：“如果禁止微信，那么中国将没有理由保留iPhone和苹果产品。”特朗普总统在未来几周内禁止微信的行政命令不仅会引发两个超级大国之间的进一步紧张关系，而且还可能对这家全球最有价值的公司苹果造成巨大打击。

TF国际证券公司的郭明-在一份报告中指出，如果看到微信禁令，将对苹果的销售产生潜在影响。他说，这次打击对苹果绝对是灾难性的，导致全球手机出货量可能每年下降25-30％。

“对于大多数在中国的中国人来说，微信是一种多合一的应用程序：一种交流故事，与老同学交谈，支付账单，与同事协调，发布令人羡慕的度假照片，购买东西以及对于中国散居海外的成千上万的成员来说，正是将他们与家庭的陷阱联系在一起的桥梁，从家庭闲聊到美食照。”

CNBC，8月7日：

唐纳德·特朗普总统于周四晚（8月6日）发布了一项行政命令，该命令将禁止与微信进行商业交易。微信是美国人与中国朋友和家人聊天的主要服务，因为在美国已经禁止了基于美国的应用。如果特朗普的行政命令得以通过，美国人民实际上将没有自由的方式与中国的朋友和亲人交谈。 

CNN，8月8日：

“如果周四发布的行政命令要求公司不同意在9月中旬之前出售腾讯（TCEHY）的流行消息应用程序，那么该应用程序现在可能在美国被禁止。微信是特朗普总统采取行动的最新目标并将迅速加剧与中国的技术战争，这也使短视频应用程序TikTok受到冲击。这一消息震惊了华裔美国人以及任何依赖该应用程序作为与家人和朋友保持联系的主要方式的中国人。微信在中国被称为微信，其功能如Facebook（FB），LinkedIn，Uber（UBER），Instagram和其他几个应用程序都融合为一个。对于许多中国人来说，WeChat是与世界联系的必不可少的应用程序。”

Market Bounce Is Over, Down Turn Resumes 市场反弹结束,下跌恢复

After a 4 day drop of 11%, the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ bounce off support near its 50 day moving average since yesterday. The bounce has stopped and trend reversed after QQQ hit its 20 day moving average resistance at 284. Similarly, both market influential stocks APPLe (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) lost 19.6% and 34.5% respectively after a sharp 4 day drop and bounced off their 50 day moving averages yesterday and they both are losing stem after hitting their 20 day moving average resistances at 121 and 402 respectively.  With their downside reversal today, their 50 day moving averages will likely tested in the near term. The 50 day moving average for QQQ, AAPL and TSLA are 271, 108 and 336 respectively. If these levels are broken, QQQ will likely go down and test its 38% retracement level at 250, while AAPL and TSLA will likely test their 50% Fibonacci retracement levels at 95 and 286 respectively. Performances of QQQ, AAPL and TSLA are important since they have led the overall market's rally since March 2020. The overall market comes down if the come down. Waves and waves of selling today on the indexes also hinting the downside outlook. 

                                            Source: Finviz.com

在经历了4天的 11％下跌之后，偏重科技股的纳斯达克100 ETF QQQ昨天从50天移动均线附近开始反弹。今天在QQQ达到其20天移动平均阻力位284之后，反弹停止并且趋势逆转。类似地，具市场影响力的股票Apple（AAPL）和Tesla（TSLA）在连续4天分别大幅下跌了19.6％和34.5％到50天移动平均线支撑后反弹，今天在达到20天移动平均阻力分别为121和402之后，他们都失去了上升动力。由于今天的下跌趋势逆转，他们的50天移动平均线可能会在短期内被测试。 QQQ，AAPL和TSLA的50天移动平均线分别为271、108和336。如果这些水平被击穿，QQQ可能会下跌测试250处的38％的回撤水平，而AAPL和TSLA可能分别在95和286处测试其50％斐波那契回撤水平。 QQQ，AAPL和TSLA的表现非常重要，因为它们自2020年3月以来一直引领着整个市场的反弹。如果它们下跌，则整个市场也会下跌。今日指数一波接一波的抛售浪潮也暗示了下行前景。

                                            Source: Finviz.com

More Pains Ahead For The Market市场将面临更多痛苦

Tech Rally Ends

After 46% rally since March 2020 low, the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ rally ends with the formation of a bearish Dark Cloud Cover reversal pattern. The largest of large 10 tech stocks Fang+Stock ETF FNGU has pulled back 36% from September 2020 top. These 10 stocks include AAPL, AMZN, GOOG,FB, NFLX, TSLA, TWTR,NVDA, BIDU, BABA. More pains ahead.

Goldman Sachs Warns Near Term Set Back For Market

Goldman warns of "Near-Term Setback" for stocks as record bullish Nasdaq sentiment suffers near-record shock. In a stark reminder of the market excesses reached last week, Goldman writes that the Nasdaq had one of the largest 2-day declines in the last 30 years after the SoftBank gamma trade was exposed. Meanwhile, the sheer buying frenzy into this plunge was unprecedented , and was characterized by a significant increase in options positioning into US equity and US Tech in particular, with the put/call ratio in the US reaching a historical low, the single stock skew back to pre-Covid levels and the spot-vol correlation turned into positive territory. "Such stretched option positioning has historically highlighted a negative asymmetry of near-term equity returns", Goldman writes, pointing out that Nasdaq net equity future positioning at the peak was close to historical highs. ---ZeroHedge

Trump's Hostility Towards China Not Good For Market

US President Trump gave a speech last night in which he promised to sharply scale back the US economic relationship with China if re-elected: firms would be punished if they send jobs offshore and rewarded if they bring them back; the US will become a manufacturing giant again; and China will not be allowed to continue to grow its military with indirect help from the US. ---Michael Every of Rabobank

China/India Conflict Intensified

On the China-India border, New Delhi says its troops crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in order to thwart what it says was a looming Chinese incursion, and that warning shots were fired. (Previous casualties were all caused by melee weapons , and guns have absent for decades to reduce tensions.) The Chinese response, from the Global Times, was:“We must warn India seriously: You have crossed the line! Your frontline troops have crossed the line! Your nationalist public opinion has crossed the line! Your policy toward China has crossed the line! You are over-confidently provoking the PLA and Chinese people-this is like doing a handstand on the edge of a cliff!" ---Michael Every of Rabobank

Byron Wien Predicts Marke Set Back

”At best, the economy is a quarter or one third of the way back to normal. Yet, the market is pricing stocks as if we're going to be back to 2019 levels some time next year. That's very unlikely. The earliest we can get back to 2019 is 2022, and I'm not even sure about that. The market also thinks that we are going to have a vaccine by the end of the year. That's a realistic assumption. It's likely that the vaccine will be given to essential workers starting next year. But I don't think that people like me will get it until the end of next year. So a return to normal is a 2022. ---Byron Wien, Black Stone Market Strategist

Crude Oil Slump Drags Down Energy Stocks

Crude oil and energy stocks are sinking after a surprise cut in the price of Saudi Arabian oil undercut a market already in a correction.The US Oil ETF (USO, -6.7%) is down 14% from its late-August highs. It fell through its 100-day simple moving average today, which it had only crossed on August 5. Energy stocks are already well into a bear market from highs in early June, with the SPDR Energy Sector ETF (XLE, -4.2%) down 28% . All of its components are in the red today. ---SeekingAlpha

Tesla Entering Bear Market?

An entire generation of Gen-Z Tesla traders on Robinhood who have only learned how to hammer the "buy" button, is getting their first cold reality check as the EV maker's stock is down over 12% pre-market, one of its biggest drops since the March crash, on the heels of the company snub for inclusion into the S&P 500 after hours on Friday. Tesla bulls, pundits and sell side analysts alike had widely expected the company to be added to the index following four quarters of fake and engineered "profitability." Instead, S&P wound up adding Teradyne, Catalent and... Etsy? There is speculation that Tesla's snub may have something to do with "questions about the automaker's'profitability metrics' and murky full-year forecast," Dan Ives from Wedbush commented on Friday, doing damage control from a $700 price target he had put on Tesla shares just days earlier. Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research speculated on Tuesday morning that Tesla was not included due to cash problems, demand problems and China problems. ---ZeroHedge

TSLA dropped more than 30% from all time high and technically it is in bear market.

科技股升势结束

自2020年3月低点以来上涨了46％之后，科技股比重大的纳斯达克100 ETF QQQ形成了看跌的乌云盖顶反转形态，显示升势结束。 Fang + Stock ETF FNGU是10只大科技股中最大的股票，已从2020年9月的高位回落36％。这10只股票包括AAPL，AMZN，GOOG，FB，NFLX，TSLA，TWTR，NVDA，BIDU，BABA。更多痛苦在前面。

高盛警告股市短期内将倒退

高盛警告称，由于创纪录的看涨纳斯达克市场情绪遭受近创纪录的震荡，股票“近期遭受挫折”。高盛鲜明地提醒人们，上周市场已 达到上升过度，纳斯达克指数因软银（Soft Bank）伽马交易曝光后是过去30年中最大的两日跌幅之一。同时，这种狂跌后的买盘狂潮是史无前例的。其特点是，对美国股票尤其是美国科技股的看涨期权显着增加。看跌期权/看涨期权比率创历史新低，单只股票看跌期权/看涨期权比率回落到Covid之前的水平，并且现货波动指数变成正值。高盛写道：“这种极端的期权比率在历史上对短期股票收益是负面的。”高盛指出，纳斯达克净股票期货头寸在最高点的位置已经接近历史高位。 ---ZeroHedge

特朗普对中国的敌意不利于市场

美国总统特朗普昨晚发表讲话，承诺如果再次当选，将大幅缩减美国与中国的经济关系。美国将再次成为制造业巨人。而且，中国将无法在美国的间接帮助下继续发展其军事力量。 ---荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）的Michael Every

在中印边界上，新德里表示，其部队越过了实际控制线（LAC），以制止它所说的迫在眉睫的中国入侵，并开枪警告。 （以前的人员伤亡都是近战武器造成的，几十年来，为了减轻紧张局势，枪支一直没有出现。）中国《环球时报》的回应是：“我们必须认真警告印度：您已经越界了！您的前线部队越界了！您的民族主义舆论越界了！您对中国的政策越界越了！您过分地挑衅了中国人民解放军和中国人民，这就像在悬崖边缘倒立！” ---荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）的Michael Every

拜伦·维恩（Byron Wien）预测市场倒退

“充其量，经济是恢复正常水平的四分之一或三分之一。然而，市场正在对股票进行定价，好像我们明年某个时候会回到2019年的水平一样。那是极不可能的。我们最早可以回到2019年的时间是2022年，对此我甚至不确定。市场还认为，我们将在今年年底之前获得疫苗。这是一个现实的假设。从明年开始，很可能会将疫苗接种给必要的工人。但是我不认为像我这样的人会在明年年底之前得到它。因此，到2022年才能恢复正常。---黑石市场策略师拜伦·维恩（Byron Wien）

原油暴跌拖累能源股

沙特阿拉伯原油价格意外下调后，原油和能源类股开始下挫，市场早已处于盘整状态。美国石油ETF（USO，-6.7％）较8月底的高点下跌了14％。今天它跌破了直到8月5日才越过的100天简单移动平均线。能源股已经从6月初的高点完全进入熊市，SPDR Energy Sector ETF（XLE，-4.2％）下跌了28％。它的所有成分股今天都是一片红色。 ---SeekingAlpha

特斯拉进入熊市？

电动汽车制造商Tesla（TSLA）的股价下跌了12％以上，这是其最大跌幅之一，在Robinhood上只学会了如何按“买入”按钮的一代Gen-Z特斯拉交易员，正在接受他们的第一笔现实测验。自三月份的股市崩盘以来，特斯拉的多头，专家和卖方分析师都普遍预计，该公司将在四个季度的虚假和精心设计的“盈利能力”之后在周五收市后就被纳入标准普尔500指数。相反，标准普尔最终加入了泰瑞达（Teradyne），凯泰伦特（Catalent）和... Etsy。来自Wedbush的Dan Ives上周五发表评论，从几天前他给特斯拉股票设定的700美元的价格目标进行损害控制及辩护。来自外界的猜测是，对特斯拉的冷淡可能与“对汽车制造商的盈利能力指标的问题和对全年业绩预测的怀疑”有关。几天前的股票。 GLJ Research的Gordon Johnson推测，由于现金问题，需求问题和中国问题，特斯拉未能包括在标普500之内。 ---ZeroHedge

TSLA从历史最高点下跌了30％以上，技术上已进入熊市。

Take Your Profits, Don't Buy The Dips 卖出获利，不要抄底

The source of the following 3 diagrams is Finviz.com

After rising 84% since March 23,2020,  the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ plunged 5.07% today. This is the biggest drop since the 12% drop on March 16, 2020. QQQ trading volume is the heaviest since mid-March. This drop is inevitable as both AAPL and TSLA rose 43% and 83% to extreme frothy valuations after they announced 1 to 4 and 1 to 5 stock split on July 30 and August 11 respectively. (These are on top of their gains of 81% and 290% respectively before split announcements. )These kind of gain is ridiculous since stock split change nothing economically and value wise ( There is no difference for 1 five dollar bill and 5 one dollar bills). The frothiness of both AAPL and TSLA together with the big gains on semiconductor, software, cloud computing and internet retail stocks since March lows make today's profit taking inevitable. There is no bad news in triggering this sell off today, only the frothiness of the tech stock prices. 

So what comes next after today's sell off? I think this is the beginning of more sell off is likely as big price drop and heavy volume usually generates further downside momentum. Weakness in Asian and European markets will likely drive US stocks to open lower tomorrow morning. Some kind of bounce due to dip buying may come in after initial dip, but will eventually meet by more selling (especially before the long Labor Day weekend). Tomorrow is a day for Non-farm payroll report. Good Non-farm payroll report may help a little bit but not likely last.  If it is another big down day tomorrow, more trouble will come next week as margin call selling will take over. 

Since this market sell off is triggered by sell off in tech stocks,  it is only reasonable to use QQQ chart as a guide to determine the downside targets. Looking at the QQQ chart, the first level of support is the 20 day moving average at 282. Since this is only 1.7% from today's close, it is not likely to hold. The second level of support is the 50 day moving average at 268, this is 6.6% from today's close. The 268 may be a reasonable level to correct down to since it will make the total correction at 11.6% (a normal correction) from the top. If the 268 level is broken, it will go down to test the 250 level. 250 is the 38% fibonacci retracement of the total move from March low to historical high. It would be a 17.7% correction from the top.

下面三个图源自Finviz.com:

自2020年3月23日以来上涨了84％之后，纳斯达克100 ETF QQQ今天暴跌5.07％。这是自2020年3月16日下跌12％以来的最大跌幅。QQQ的交易量是3月中以来最高的。这种下降是不可避免的，因为AAPL和TSLA分别在7月30日和8月11日宣布分拆1-4股股票和1-5股股票后，它们的股价分别上涨了43％和83％至极端泡沫水平。 （这些涨幅是在拆分公告之前分别已经上涨了81％和290％之后。）这种上升是荒谬的，因为股票拆分在经济和价值方面都没有改变（1张5美元的钞票和5张1美元的钞票没有区别） ）。自3月份的低点以来，AAPL和TSLA的泡沫水平以及半导体，软件，云计算和互联网零售股票的大幅上涨使今天的获利回吐成为必然。今天引发这次抛售没有什么坏消息，只是由高科技股票价格的泡沫水平所导致。

那么，今天的抛售之后会发生什么呢？我认为这是更多抛售的开始，因为大幅度的价格下跌和大交易量通常会产生进一步的下跌动能。亚洲和欧洲市场的疲软可能会推动明天早上美股低开。最初的下跌可能会导致某种形式的逢低买入反弹，但最终会带来更多的抛售（尤其是在漫长的劳动节周末之前）。明天是非农就业报告的一天。好的非农就业报告可能会对市场有所帮助，但不会持续太久。如果明天是又一个大跌天，下周将有更多的麻烦，因为追加保证金的抛售将接着到来。

由于市场的抛售是由科技股的抛售引发的，因此使用QQQ图表作为确定下行目标是合理的。从QQQ图表来看，第一支撑位是20天移动平均线282。由于这仅距离今天收盘价1.7％，因此不太可能守得住。第二个支撑位是50天移动均线268，这是今天收盘价的6.6％之下。 268可能是向下修正的合理水平，因为它将使总的修正量从顶部算起为11.6％（是正常修正）。如果268水平被击穿，它将下去测试250水平。 250是从三月低点至历史高点的总涨幅的38％斐波那契回撤位。这将是从历史高位下跌17.7％。

Diversified High Yield Portfolio 多元化高收益投资组合

As frenzy buying of tech stocks and major market indexes making all time high day after day, it is time to be defensive. There are ways to participate in the rising market without high tech risks. There are a lot of talks about the stretched valuation of tech stocks and investors may start to rebalance their portfolios by selling techs stocks and rotate into valued and defensive high yield stocks. The following is a list of diversified, high dividend and mainly big cap stocks to participate in the rising market without high tech risk. These stocks can be used to defense against general market down trend also. Criteria of selection for stocks in this portfolio are: High dividend (at least 4%), mainly large cap, decent Forward PE, decent chart and covering different sectors. These stocks are:

随着科技股的疯狂上涨和主要市场指数的日复一日地创新高，现在该采取防御措施了。 有很多方法可以在没有高科技风险的情况下参与不断上涨的市场。 关于科技股估值过高的讨论很多，投资者可能会开始通过出售科技股来重新平衡他们的投资组合，然后转向价值好且具有防御性的高收益股。 以下是在没有高科技风险的情况下参与上升市场的多元化，高股息和主要是大盘股的列表。这些股票也可以用来抵御一般市场的下跌趋势。该投资组合中股票的选择标准是：高股息(最小4%），主要是大盘股，前瞻市盈率不错，图表不错，并且涵盖不同领域。 这些股票是：