Worsening Covid-19 pandemic with France and Germany both mulling nationwide lockdowns, very weak European stock markets, big companies refrain from projecting future outlooks after earning reports, U.S. lawmakers failing to strike a deal on fresh fiscal stimulus and election anxiety all contribute to sharp drop in US stock market today. There seems to be a lot more to worry this time then the 2016 and 2000 elections and more market drop looks likely. Here is today's damages so far 3 1/2 hours into the session (source finviz.com):
Here is a look at what happen to the Nasdaq Composite before and after the elections of 2016 and 2000.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 9 days in a row going into the 2016 election. That's over 5% drop. It then rallied sharply after the election.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 34% in a bit over a month after the 2000 election due to contention on who won the presidency. The market then proceed to rally strongly.
Based on 2016's 9 days in a row before election drop and after election drop of 34% on year 2000 election, we need to be very careful before and after this election. For this year's election we have the same pre-election anxiety and the potential contention on who win the presidency, not to mention that we have a worsening Covid-19 pandemic. The Nasdaq will likely continue to fall, the first support level is 10519.
Covid-19疫情的恶化，法国和德国都在考虑在全国范围内实行封锁，欧洲股市非常疲软，大公司在财报告不再预测未来的前景，美国国会未能就新的财政刺激措施达成协议，而选举忧虑都助长了今天的美国股市急剧下跌 。 今年似乎比2016年和2000年的选举还要担心得多，市场继续下跌的可能性大。这是今天到目前为止(开市3 1/2小时之后）的损失（来源finviz.com）：
下面是纳斯达克综合指数在2016年和2000年大选前后的涨跌情况。
纳斯达克综合指数在进入2016年大选前连续9天下跌, 跌幅超过5％。 选举后，它则急剧反弹。
2000年大选后，由于对谁赢得总统宝座的争执，纳斯达克综合指数在一个多月内下降了34％。在决定谁赢后市场才开始强劲反弹。
基于2016年大选前连续9天下降以及2000年大选后大跌34％的情况，我们在这次大选前后都必须非常小心。 对于今年的大选，普遍对大选前的忧虑和潜在的可能选后争执都和2016及2000相同，更不用说Covid-19大流行病毒正在恶化中。纳指继续下跌的机会大，第一个支撑水平是10519
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