US stock market dropped sharply today with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed down 650, 189 and 64 points respectively. Here are today's market carnages sourced from Finviz.com:
With no congress economic stimulus passing in sight, worsening Covid-19 here in United States and abroad, tech stocks valuation are over-extended, Germany software giant SAP lowers guidance and all 3 major stock market indexes formed bearish Double Top pattern, further weakness in the US stock market is likely near term. Followings are some details.
Covid-19 becomes focus again
More than half of the states across the United States have reported their highest single-day of new Covid-19 cases during the month of October, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. So far this month, 27 states reported at least one record high day of new cases over the last few weeks. 11 states reported their highest single-day of new deaths during the month of October. ---CNN
Today's Cover-19 summary by ZeroHedge:
Newark independently returns to partial lockdown
Surgeon General issues Thanksgiving warning
Netherlands tops 300k new cases
Czech Republic, Belgium and Denmark weigh new measures
Dr. Fauci says US still in first wave of virus
US sees 7-day average for cases hit new record
Hospitals across US near capacity
Utah hospitals ask Gov to approve new triage plan
French official warns France seeing 100k new cases per day
Malaysia extends lockdown
Hong Kong focuses COVID efforts on public transit
UK approves new rapid test
AstraZeneca trial data shows vaccine effective on elderly
No 2nd Covid-19 economic stimulus plan passing in sight
It looks all but impossible that Congress could send new aid to Americans before Election Day, Nov. 3. In a letter to the Democratic Caucus, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi cited the White House's resistance to meeting her demands on Covid-19 testing and tracing as a key reason why a stimulus deal has not been reached.
Election Uncertainty
Election is only days away, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election. But that doesn't guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. She ended up losing in the electoral college. The general concern is if election votes are close, who will become the next president may not be decided for weeks. During the 2000 Gore/Bush presidential election, the votes are so close that Bush win was not certain until a month later and the S&P 500 dropped 7.5% during that time before rebounding.
SAP cuts full-year guidance, stock down big
Germany software giant SAP (SAP) cut its full-year guidance due to the spiking coronavirus cases around the world, sending its shares down as much as 23.16% today. US software software companies are also down big with Workday (WDAY) down 6.16%, Oracle (ORCL) down 4.02%, Salesforce (CRM) down 3.4% and Microsoft (MSFT) down 2.91%. Software ETF IGV is down 2.47% while the cloud computing ETF WCLD is down 2.07%. This is also negatively impacting tech stocks overall with tech heavy ETF QQQ down 1.50%.
Major US stock market indexes are trending down
Both the Dow and S&P 500 indexes are below their 50 day moving average key supports while the Nasdaq Composite index is only 47 points away from breaking its 50 day moving average. All 3 indexes have formed bearish Double Top pattern. It is also evident that buy on dip forces are weakening during the last 3 weeks and the volatility index has been rising. The surge in VIX today is indicative of investors fear of the market is increasing . The market's technicals indicate more down side to come. Another 5% downside for the market is likely.
Crucial earnings this week
There have been about 30% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings already and 80% of them reported better earnings and yet the market is weak. So earnings may come in good but what about stock prices ?This brings to mind a wall street saying "buy on rumor sell on news", meaning good earnings have been expected and sell off may ensue after earning regardless of good or bad earnings. Performance in Q3 is history and the market looks forward to the future and future is not that promising on worsening Covid-19 outlook. This week's influential earnings are as follows:
Tuesday: MSFT, AMD, CAT, MMM, RTX, PFE, MRK
Wednesday: BA,UPS,MA,GE
Thursday: AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, MRNA, TWTR
Friday: XOM, ABBV, CVX
今日美国股市大幅下跌，道指，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌650,189和64点。以下是源自Finviz.com的今日股市场的屠杀情况：
由于没有国会经济刺激措施的到来，美国和国外的Covid-19疫情恶化，科技股估值被过度扩张，德国软件巨头SAP降低了明年营业额指引，所有三大主要股指形成了看跌的双顶格局，美国股市很可能在短期内会进一步疲软。以下是一些细节。
Covid-19再次成为焦点
根据约翰·霍普金斯大学（Johns Hopkins University）的数据，全美一半以上的州在10月份报告了新的Covid-19新病例单日最高记录。本月到目前为止，在过去的几周中，有27个州报告至少有创纪录的一天的新病例。 11个州报告了10月份单日死亡人数最高的一天。 ---CNN
ZeroHedge的今天Cover-19摘要如下：
Newark市独立返回部分封锁
美国卫生部对感恩节Covid-19的警告
荷兰突破30万病例
捷克共和国，比利时和丹麦权衡新措施
福西博士说美国仍处于第一波病毒流行
美国新增案件创7天平均纪录
美国各地的医院容量接近用满
犹他州医院要求州政府批准新的分诊计划
法国官员警告法国每天会有10万例新病例
马来西亚延长封锁
香港将COVID的工作重点放在公共交通上
英国批准新的快速测试
AstraZeneca的试验数据显示该疫苗对老年人有效
没有第二项Covid-19经济刺激计划通过
国会几乎不可能在11月3日选举日之前向美国人提供新的援助。众议院议长南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）在致民主党核心小组的信中指出，白宫未能满足她对Covid-19测试和追踪的要求是未达成刺激协议的关键原因。
大选结果的不确定性
距离大选只有几天了，乔·拜登（Joe Biden）在总统选举的全国民意调查中领先唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）。但这不能保证民主党候选人的胜利。希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）在几乎整个2016年竞选中的民意调查中也明显领先特朗普。她最终在选举学院中失败。人们普遍担心的是，如果选举票数接近，将有数周无法确定下一任总统的可能。在2000年戈尔/布什总统选举期间，因选票的接近，以至于直到一个月后才能确定布什赢得胜利，而标准普尔500指数在此期间下跌了7.5％后才反弹。
SAP削减明年全年营业额指引
由于全球冠状病毒病例激增，德国软件巨头SAP（SAP）下调了明年全年指引，导致其股价今天下跌23.16％。美国软件软件公司也因而下跌，Workday（WDAY）下跌6.16％，Oracle（ORCL）下跌4.02％，Salesforce（CRM）下跌3.4％，Microsoft（MSFT）下跌2.91％。软件ETF IGV下跌2.47％，而云计算ETF WCLD则下跌2.07％。这也对科技股产生了负面影响，科技类偏重的ETF QQQ下跌了1.50％。
美国主要股市指数呈下降趋势
道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数均低于其50天移动均线关键支撑，而纳斯达克综合指数距其50天移动均线只有47点。所有三个指数均形成了看跌的双顶格局。其次明显的是，在过去的三周中，逢低买入力量正在减弱，波动指数VIX一直在上升。VIX今天的强劲显示投资人对股市恐惧的增加。市场的技术面预示着更多的弱势表现。美股再跌5%的机会大。
本周重要企业财报
标准普尔500指数公司中约有30％的公司已经报告了收益，其中80％的公司报告了好于预期的收益，但是市场却走跌。因此，财报可能会不错，但是股价呢？这使我想到了华尔街的一句说话：“在谣言中买入，在新闻发布后卖出”，这意味着人们已经预期了良好的收益，无论收益是好是坏，都可能在收益发布后抛售股票。第三季度的表现已是历史，因为Covid-19前景的恶化对企业未来的展望并不乐观。本周有影响力的财报如下：
星期二：MSFT，AMD，CAT，MMM，RTX，PFE，MRK
星期三：BA，UPS，MA，GE
星期四：AAPL，AMZN，FB，GOOG, MRNA，TWTR
星期五：XOM，ABBV，CVX
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