Thursday, October 8, 2020

Oil Stocks May Be Ready To Shine, MRO石油股可能将成为亮点, MRO

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO 4.38) operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States and Equatorial Guinea. The company engages in the exploration, production, and marketing of crude oil and condensate, natural gas liquids, and natural gas; and the production and marketing of products manufactured from natural gas, such as liquefied natural gas and methanol, as well as owns and operates 32 central gathering and treating facilities and the Sugarloaf gathering system, a 42-mile natural gas pipeline through Karnes and Atascosa Counties. As of December 31, 2019, it had estimated proved developed reserves totaling 721 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe); and estimated proved undeveloped reserves totaling 484 mmboe.

With oil price strengthening, oversold oil stocks and expectation of bad earning likely built into prices already, oil stocks may be the next sector to shine. Marathon Oil made positive announcement today, its stock price is only 1/3 of its BookValue and bullish Double Bottom formed on price chart, it is so enticing, I am including it into my Diversified Aggressive Growth portfolio.  Stocks in this portfolio now include MRO, CNR, AGQ, FCX, SQ, PINS, SRNE, TGT and NKLA. You may search these symbol in this blog for more details. Followings are positives for MRO:

1. Positive Marathon Oil's announcement today:

。 Reinstated quarterly base dividend at 3 cents per share. 12 cents/year translate into 2.74%.

。 Successfully tendered $500 million of 2022 notes, resulting in $100 million gross debt reduction.

。 Fourth quarter dividend and gross debt reduction more than fully funded by third quarter free cash flow generation.

。 Capital allocation framework provides free cash flow visibility and makes meaningful cash flow available for investor-friendly purposes.

。In a $40/bbl to $45/bbl WTI price environment, intend to allocate at least 20% of cash flow from operations to balance sheet enhancement and return of capital to shareholders.

。In a $45/bbl WTI or better price environment, intend to allocate 30% or more of cash flow from operations to balance sheet enhancement and return of capital to shareholders.

2.  Good valuation: Price to Sale 0.82, Price to Book 0.31, Price to Free Cash Flow 1.46. Average analysts (27)  price target is 7.01. Book Value is 14.15.

3. Good outlook: Earning per share is estimated to increase by 50%.

4. Institution support: 73% share own by institutions.

5. WTI Crude Oil price is strengthening and is reading to breakout of important resistance.


6. Unusual Call options buying: 30437 contracts of November 20, 5 Call traded today and 26209 contracts of November 20, 6 Call traded today. These indicate strong interest in MRO.

7. Technicals: MRO has formed bullish Double Bottom around 3. Once it break above 5, it likely accelerate up to fill gap to 6.78. So 5 and 6.78 is MRO's short term targets. Longer term targets are 8.48 then 11. 





马拉松石油公司(MRO 4.38)在美国和赤道几内亚是一家独立的勘探和生产公司。该公司从事原油,凝析油,天然气液和天然气的勘探,生产和销售;以及使用天然气生产的产品(例如液化天然气和甲醇)的生产和销售,并拥有和运营32个中央收集和处理设施以及Sugarloaf收集系统,这是一条通向卡恩斯和阿塔斯科萨斯县的42英里天然气管道。截至2019年12月31日,据估计已探明已开发储量总计为7.21亿桶油当量(mmboe);估计未开发储量总计为4.84亿桶当量。


随着石油价格的上涨,石油股票的超卖以及财报不好的预期可能已经融入价格之中,石油股票板块可能成为下一个亮点。马拉松石油公司今天发表了正面的声明,其股价仅为其账面价值的1/3,并且在价格图表上已形成了看涨的双底,如此诱人,我现在将其纳入了多元化积极增长投资组合之内。此投资组合中的股票现在包括MRO,CNR,AGQ,FCX,SQ,PINS,SRNE,TGT和NKLA。您可以在此博客中搜索这些符号以获取更多详细信息。以下是MRO的正面信息:

1.马拉松石油公司今天的正面消息:

。恢复季度基本股息为每股3美分。 12美分/年相当于2.74%。

。成功地发行了5亿美元的2022年债券,使债务总额减少了1亿美元。

。第四季度的股息和债务减少总额超过了第三季度自由现金流产生的全部资金。

。资本分配框架提供自由的现金流可见性,并为对投资者友好的目的提供有意义的现金流。

。在40美元/桶至45美元/桶的WTI原油价格环境中,打算将至少20%的经营活动现金流用于资产负债表的增强和和向股东返还资本。

。在$ 45 / 桶 WTI原油价格或更高价格的环境中,打算将经营活动产生的现金流的30%或更多分配给资产负债表增强和向股东返还资本。

2.很好好的估值:价格/销售比率0.82,价格/帐面价值比率0.31,价格/自由现金流比率1.46。27位分析师 的平均价格目标是7.01。而帐面价值则是14.15。

3.良好的前景:预计明年每股收益将增长50%。

4.机构支持:机构拥有73%的股份。

5. WTI原油价格正在上涨,并且准备突破重要的阻力位。油价的上升对油股有利。



6.不寻常的看涨期权购买:今天交易了30437 张11月20日5元看涨期权的合约,及今天交易了26209张11月20日6元看涨期权合约。这些表明对MRO的浓厚兴趣。

7.技术面:MRO已在3元附近形成了看涨的双底图形。一旦突破5元,它可能会加速上升以填补缺口至6.78元。因此5和6.78是MRO的短期目标。长期目标是8.48,然后是11。




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