Since all time high $64895 made on April 14, 2021, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) dropped $36035 (-56%) to June 22 low $28860. It then reversed up sharply overnight to as high as $35000. It formed a bullish tail reversal yesterday. However, it has not follow through to day with more upside action. I usually like long tail reversal, however I don't like this one. The trading volume was only 995K, and it dropped only around $4000 before reversal, I have hoped that it will drop $10000, reverse, with volume over 3 million. So, this means sellers have not been fully washed out, they are going to come back and sell again.
Technically, for the last half year, Bitcoin has formed a very bearish Head and Shoulder Pattern. The $30000 level is the the neckline of this pattern and it is also a very good support level. However, with this level being pounded multiple times (at least 4 times in the last 1 month), this support is getting weaker, it looks destine to be broken to complete the Head and Should Pattern. Once $30000 is broken, it is likely to come down to a support band between $17000 to $20000. It would a 69% retracement from all time high if it drops down to $20000, and would be a 74% drop form all time high if it drops to $17000. Is this scary, yes it is. But you probably feel better if you remember it dropped 84% from top during the crash of 2018. We need to learn to live with the volatility of bitcoin.
People have also focused on Bitcoin's Death Cross formation (50DMA crosses 200 DMA). Many times Death Cross is not that scary, since moving averages are lack behind indicators, by the time they crosses the downside may have ran its course. But this time may be different, since the event is accompanied by an incomplete Head and Shoulder Pattern.
So be prepare for more downside, but get ready to buy when it drops near $20000. Bitcoin is going to come back much stronger.
自 2021 年 4 月 14 日创下 64895 美元的历史新高以来，至 6 月 22 日的低点 28860 美元, 比特币（BTC/USD）下跌反转。然而，它并没有带来更多的上行行动。我通都常喜欢长尾反转，但我不喜欢这次的反转。因为成交量只有99.5万，反转前只跌了4000左右，我的希望是下跌1万，反转，成交量超过300万。所以，这次下跌意味着卖家还没有完全被清洗，他们会再次回来抛售。
从技术上讲，在过去的半年里，比特币已经形成了一个非常看跌的头肩顶形态。 30000 美元的水平是该形态的颈线，也是一个非常好的支撑位。然而，随着这个水平被多次冲击（过去 1 个月至少有 4 次），这个支撑会越来越弱，看起来它注定要被击穿以完成头肩顶形态。一旦跌穿 30000 美元，它很可能会下降到 17000 美元至 20000 美元之间的支撑带。如果它跌至 20000 美元，将是从历史高点回撤 69%，下跌至$17000则是从历史高点下跌 74%。这可怕吗，是的，是可怕。不过如果你记得它在 2018 年崩盘期间从顶部下跌了 84%，你可能会感觉好些。我们需要学会习惯比特币的大幅波动。
人们还关注比特币的死亡交叉指标的形成（50DMA 向下交叉 200 DMA）。很多时候死亡交叉并不那么可怕，因为移动平均线是堕后的指标，当它们交叉时可能下行已经走到了尽头了。但这次可能不同，因为事件伴随着还没完成的头肩形顶形态。
所以要为比特币更多的下跌做好准备，但准备在价格跌至 20000 美元附近时买入。到时比特币会以更强劲的姿态上扬。
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