Last Minute Analysis On Market Direction市场方向的最后一分钟分析

The Federal Reserve is going to announce monetary policy in less than 1/2 hour at 11 AM Pacific Time. Most people expect the Fed to stay dovish. But how dovish can it be since it has been dovish for a long time. So even if it stay dovish it is not likely to help the market since it has been reacting to the dovishness for a long time already.The danger with the stock market is that major market indexes are near all time high and they have not been discounting rising inflation yet. Sell on dovish news may be the reaction. On the other hand, inflation has been surging in the past 3 months, the Fed is being pressured to response by reducing bond buying. Any slight tilt towards tightening is a negative for the stock market since it indicates Fed policy is changing.  I would think the odd favors a down market regardless of Fed decision. It is my gut feel as a trader only. 

美联储将在太平洋时间上午 11 点不到 半小时内宣布货币政策。 大多数人预计美联储将保持鸽派言论。 可是宽松政策已实行很久了，能再有多宽松？ 因此，即使它保持宽松，也不太可能对市场有所帮助，因为市场已经因为宽松而上升了很久了。现在股市的危险在于，主要市场指数处于历史高位附近，并且没有对 通胀负面反映过。 所以保持鸽派的消息出来后可能的是反应下跌。 另一方面，过去 3 个月通胀一直在飙升，美联储正被迫做出回应的压力很大。 任何收紧政策的轻微倾向都对股市不利，因为这表明美联储政策正在发生变化。 我认为无论美联储的决定如何，对市场来说都是双输的局面。 这只是我作为交易者的直觉。