Sentiment Too Complacent, Market About To Reverse Down情绪过于自满，市场即将向下逆转

The S&P 500 has surged 92% since March 23, 2020 low. The market has ran up too much in such a short time and there is not too much room for it to run without correcting. 

The S&P 500 is facing historical high resistance at 4238. Volatility Index (VIX) is near historical low indicating sentiment is too complacent. 

Put/Call ratio is below 0.70 at 0.68. Historically, this low a ratio usually precedes a market reversal down. The On Balance Volume (OBV) has been on downtrend since early May 2021 and has been diverging with the S&P 500. This is also a signal precedes a market reversal down.

All it need is a trigger for a correction to begin. China is to release inflation number tomorrow and US is to report CPI on Thursday. These reports are likely negative for the market and correction may begin. A 10% correction would put S&P 500 at around 3800. SQQQ, FNGD, TZA and UVXY may be consider as ways to participate on market downturn.

自 2020 年 3 月 23 日的低点以来，标准普尔 500 指数已飙升 92%。 市场在如此短的时间内上涨太多，在没有修正的情况下将没有太多的空间再升。

标准普尔 500 指数面临历史高位阻力位 4238。波动率指数 (VIX) 又接近历史低点，显示投资人情绪过于自满而有下跌的风险。

看跌/看涨期权比率低于 0.70，为 0.68。 从历史上看，这种低比率通常在市场反转下跌前出现。 自 2021 年 5 月上旬以来，平衡量 (OBV) 一直处于下降趋势，并与标准普尔 500 指数走势背离。这也是市场反转下跌之前的信号。

市场所需要的只是一个开始修正的触发消息。 中国将于明天公布通胀数据，美国将于周四公布 CPI。 这些报告很可能对市场不利，可能会因此开始调整。 10% 的修正将使标准普尔 500 指数跌至 3800 水平附近。可以考虑用SQQQ、FNGD、TZA 和 UVXY 作为参与市场跌势的方式。