Trade Talk, Fund Outflow, Bank Earnings, Timing Recession 贸易谈判，资金流出，银行财报，衰退的时间性

。U.S. and Chinese negotiators wrapped up their latest round of trade talks on Friday and were scheduled to resume discussions next week to try to secure a pact that would end a tit-for-tat tariff battle that has roiled global markets.The two sides offered few details of the progress as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He concluded three days of meetings with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said a deal could be announced in the next four weeks. ---Reuters

。For the quarter, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.46% rose 14%, and added another 1.9% so far this month, putting the broad-market index just 1.3% shy of its Sept. 20 record, even as U.S. equity funds posted outflows of $39.1 billion, according to a Bank of America analysis of EPFR data. Woodward investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and his colleagues theorized in a Thursday research report that the divergence between outflows and outsize gains, perhaps, can be explained by corporate buybacks, as S&P 500 firms have repurchased $227 billion of their own stock in the first quarter of 2019, according to FactSet data, up from $143 billion in the first quarter of 2018. ---Market Watch

。Investors will focus on falling profits, a more dovish Federal Reserve and lower interest rates as major U.S. banks kick off what analysts expect to be the first quarter of contracting corporate earnings since 2016. On Friday, April 12, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co will post results to begin the earnings season in earnest. Citigroup Inc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc will report the following Monday, followed by Bank of America Corp and Morgan Stanley on Tuesday.
In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s cautious shift due to signs of softness in the U.S. economy and the subsequent drop in 10-year Treasury yields, S&P 500 banks are seen posting year-on-year first-quarter earnings growth of 2.3%, down from 8.2% forecast six months ago, according to Refinitiv data. ---Reuters

。According to James A. Kostohryz The median time from the trough in initial claims until recession has been 13 months. Absent an exogenous shock, the trough in unemployment claims is likely to occur 18-36 months prior to a recession. This means that, absent an exogenous shock, it's likely that the next US recession will likely come no sooner than 18 months from now. If a US recession is at least 18 months away, significant new highs for the S&P 500 are very likely.  ---James A. Kostohryz

。美国和中国的谈判代表上周五完成了最新一轮的贸易谈判，并计划在下周恢复讨论，试图达成一项协议，结束针对全球市场的针锋相对的关税战。中国国务院副总理刘鹤在华盛顿与美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱希泽和财政部长史蒂芬·姆努钦会晤三天后，双方提供的信息很少 。 美国总统唐纳德特朗普周四表示，可能会在未来四周宣布达成协议。---Reuters

。本季度，标准普尔500指数SPX + 0.46％上涨14％，本月迄今为止又增加了1.9％，使得大盘指数仅比其9月20日的记录只低1.3％，尽管美国股票基金发布流出量为391亿美元（ 根据美国银行对EPFR数据的分析）。 美国银行美林证券及其同事伍德沃德投资策略师在周四的一份研究报告中提出理论，资金流出量和股市超额上升之间的差异可能可以通过公司回购来解释，因为标准普尔500指数公司已经回购了2270亿美元自己的股票。 根据FactSet的数据，2019年第一季度的回购数据高于2018年第一季度的1430亿美元。---Market Watch

。投资者将会重点关注利润下降，美联储政策更加温和和低利率，以及美国主要银行开始发布分析师预期为自2016年以来的第一季度利润收缩。周四，4月12日，摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC）将发布结果。 花旗集团（C）和高盛集团（GS）将于周一报告，其次是美国银行（BAC）和摩根士丹利（MS）。由于美国经济疲软以及随后10年期国债收益率下降导致美联储的谨慎转变，标准普尔500指数银行第一季度盈利同比增长2.3％，根据Refinitiv的数据，六个月前的预测为8.2％。---Reuters

。根据James A. Kostohryz的说法，从最初失业救济申请的低谷到经济衰退时间中位数为13个月。 如果没有外生冲击，失业救济申请的低谷可能会在经济衰退前18-36个月发生。 这意味着，在没有外生冲击的情况下，下一次美国经济衰退很可能会在18个月之后到来。如果美国经济衰退至少需要18个月才到来，则标准普尔500指数创新高可能性很大。---James A. Kostohryz