2021 Predictions 2021年预测

A lot of people, analysts, economists, traders, experts and alike make predictions at the end of the year for next year. But knowing that most of the predictions are usually not becoming true according to past history, I am boldly making my own predictions also since at the worst I might just be as bad as most predictors and the best case is if I am lucky and beat other predictors and I will earn my bragging right.  Of course, my predictions are not going to be without logics and reasons. So here are my predictions for 2021:

1. Bitcoin price will reach $100000 because:

a. Bitcoin has now recognized by billionaires, hedge funds, investment funds and corporations as an investment asset and they have just begun to buy Bitcoin. If each of them just allocate 1% of their assets towards Bitcoin, Bitcoin price will go through the roof. 

b. Retail investors are still licking their wounds since the 2017 Bitcoin crash. Many of them are still worry of the 2017 crash will happen again and they have refrain from investing in Bitcoin so far. But as the institutions bidding price higher and higher, retail investors can't fight their greed and eventually jump in. This will further fuel Bitcoin price higher. 

c.  Bitcoin price appreciated 2600% in 2017 and this year since March low, Bitcoin has moved about 646% higher. Knowing Bitcoin price can move fast and big and it only need to go up 245% from 29000 to get to 100000, the 100000 price target may be too conservative!

2. The stock market will have big correction in the new year because:

a. 9 out of 12 (75%) investment banks are bullish on stocks for 2021.  Their average price target for the S&P 500 is 4192 in 2021, about 12.32% from today's 3732. Experience told me that when most of the analysts are bullish, one need to be a contrarian. 

b. Investors with a lot of stock gains and hold through 2020 in order to avoid capital gain tax will sell in the new year.

c. S&P 500 forward PE is 24 and the historic average range is between 15 and 18. Market is overvalued.

d.  Forward PE for big tech stocks AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT,  FB and NVDA  are too high Vs their earning growth rate for next year.  PE and earning growth rate should be about the same for fair value. It is overvalue if PE is much higher than earning growth rate.

Stock        Forward PE    2021 EPS Growth %

AAPL       31                   9.27

AMZN     72                   30.10

GOOG     28                   18.20

MSFT      30                   10.49

FB           26                   12.21

NVDA    44                    22.05

3. Many stocks which have moved multi-hundred percent during 2020 will get kill in 2021 because :

These high flyers have been driven higher only by hype and investors euphoric sentiment, they have ran far ahead of their fundamentals. Since they are priced for perfection, they cannot afford to have anything wrong. Things that can go wrong are earnings are not as good as expected, increased competition, worsening pandemic , worsening economy,  Global political turmoil, big correction in the stock market, change in fed policy, investor sentiment change...Etc.  The following is a lists of these stocks and their gains in 2020 and forward PE: 

NIO +1103%, no earnings, QS+893% , no earnings, FVRR +774%, 260 PE, TSLA +730%, 181 PE, JMIA +532%. no earnings, ZM +419%, 118 PE,  FSLY +350%, no earnings.

许多人，分析师，经济学家，交易员，专家等在年底都会对明年做预测。但是，根据过去的历史，我知道大多数预测通常不会成为现实，因此我大胆地也做出自己的预测，因为在最坏的情况下，我可能会像大多数预测者一样糟糕，而最好的情况是，如果我运气好并击败了其他预测者，我将获得自我吹捧一番的权利。当然，我的预测不会没有逻辑和理由。以下是我对2021年的预测：

1.比特币价格将达到$ 100000，因为：

a。比特币现在已经被亿万富豪，对冲基金，投资基金和企业认可为一种投资资产，他们刚刚开始购买比特币。如果他们每个人仅将其资产的1％分配到比特币，那么比特币的价格将飙升到很高。

b。自2019年比特币崩盘以来，散户投资者仍在舔伤口。他们中的许多人仍然对2017年的崩盘会再次发生而感到恐惧，到目前为止，他们一直还不敢投资比特币。但是，随着机构争相购买导致价格越来越高，散户投资者将无法抗拒心中的贪念并最终加入进来。这将进一步推动比特币价格上涨。

C。比特币价格在2017年升值2600％，今年自3月低点以来，比特币已经上涨了约646％。知道比特币的价格可以飞快上升而且涨幅又大，动辄上升几百%，它只需要从现在的约29000上涨245％便到100000，这是很容易的事情。看来100000的价格目标可能是太保守了！

2.由于以下原因，股市将在新的一年中大幅回调：

a。 12家投资银行中有9家（75％）对2021年股票持乐观态度。标准普尔500指数的平均价格目标是4192，相当于从今天的3732 上涨12.32％。经验告诉我，当大多数分析师都看涨时，我们需要成为一个逆势者。

b。 拥有大量股票收益而为了避免资本利得税而持股过年的投资者将在新的一年出售股票。

c。标普500的前瞻PE为24，历史平均水平在15到18之间。市场价值被高估了。

d。大型科技股(AAPL，AMZN，GOOG，MSFT，FB和NVDA) 的前瞻市盈率相对于明年的盈利增长率距离大。市盈率和收益增长率应大致相同股价才算合理 。如果PE远远高于盈利增长率，则股价过高。

股票            前瞻PE     2021年EPS增长率% 

 AAPL          31             9.27

 AMZN        72             30.10

 GOOG        28             18.20

 MSFT         30             10.49

 FB              26             12.21

 NVDA       44              22.05

3.许多在2020年期间上涨了百分之几百的股票将在2021年被屠杀，因为：

仅凭炒作和投资者的过度高涨的情绪把这些股票推高，股价远远超出了基本面是危险的。由于它们的价位已经反映了完美的基本面，因此它们不能承担任何出错。可能出错的是收益不如预期，竞争加剧，病毒疫情恶化，经济恶化，国际政治动荡，股市大幅度调整，美联储政策变化，投资者情绪变化等。以下是这些股票在2020年的涨幅及其前瞻PE：

NIO + 1103％，无利润，QS + 893％，无利润，FVRR + 774％，260 前瞻PE，TSLA + 730％，181前瞻PE，JMIA + 532％。无利润，ZM + 419％，118前瞻PE，FSLY + 350％，无利润。

    

IMMR Looks Great IMMR看起来很不错

Immersion Corporation (IMMR) creates, designs, develops, and licenses haptic technologies in North America, Europe, and Asia. Its technologies allow people to use their sense of touch to engage with various digital products. The company offers technology licenses, patent licenses, and combined licenses. It also provides software development kits, which consist of design tools, integration software, and effect libraries that allow for the design, encoding, and playback of tactile effects in content. In addition, the company offers design tools, application programming interfaces (APIs), reference designs, and firmware for haptic experiences to branded devices and other products. Further, the company licenses its patents to implement the licensed software to customers. Additionally, it provides engineering and integration services, design kits for prototyping, authoring tools, and platform independent solutions. The company offers its products to mobile communications, wearables, and consumer electronics; console and PC gaming; automotive; and medical markets. Immersion Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Immersion Corporation (IMMR) moved up over 37% today and its two day gains are 45%. Today's volume is 87 times average daily volume and that's a lot of trust in the stock. I am listing the goods of IMMR as follows:

1. Immersion Corporation (IMMR) has over 3,500 patents and a presence in more than 3 billion devices. The company is in the spotlight in 2020 as it's a component maker for haptic feel for the new Playstation 5 by Sony. According to a report by VGchartz, a third-party analytical website which tracks sales data throughout the games industry, the new PS5 sold through at least 2.1 million units on both November 12, when the console launched in North America, and November 19, when the PS5 launched in the UK and Europe. According to IMMR CEO, there are likely more than one haptic device for  for every PS5 purchase for multiple players. Sony has been ramping up demand for the Playstation 5, with an expected 9-10 million devices planned to ship in 2020. This is an increase from the prior planned 6 million and represents a great sign since it took the company eight months to ship 10 million Playstation 4s to retailers. This should be huge for IMMR.

2. Colliers Security analyst rated IMMR at Buy with a price target of 15 today.

3. Zach's Research rated IMMR as rank #2 ( BUY) stock.

4. IMMR has a forward PE of 14.95 for 2021 and earning growth is estimated to be +125% for 2021.

5. There are 21 hedge funds purchased IMMR stock.

6. 80% of IMMR stocks are own by institutions. Plenty of institution supports.

7. There are only 26.25 million shares float for IMMR.

8. Technically, IMMR is in an accelerated up trend with a lot of momentum. Its next two resistances are 15 and then all time high 17.71. Support is 10 to 12.

Immersion Corporation（IMMR 12.94）在北美，欧洲和亚洲创建，设计，开发和提供触觉技术许可证。它的技术使人们能够利用触觉与各种数字产品互动。该公司提供技术许可证，专利许可证和组合许可证。它还提供软件开发套件，其中包括设计工具，集成软件和效果库，这些功能库允许设计，编码和播放内容中的触觉效果。此外，该公司还提供设计工具，应用程序编程接口（API），参考设计和固件，以为品牌设备和其他产品提供触觉体验。此外，该公司许可其专利以向客户实施许可的软件。此外，它还提供工程和集成服务，用于原型制作的设计套件，创作工具以及与平台无关的解决方案。该公司向移动通信，可穿戴设备，消费电子产品，控制台和PC游戏，汽车和医疗市场提供产品。 Immersion Corporation成立于1993年，总部位于加利福尼亚州旧金山。

 Immersion Corporation（IMMR）今天上涨了37％以上，其两日涨幅为45％。今天的交易量是每日平均交易量的87倍，这显示出条子人对股票有多信任。尽管升了不小，IMMR的前景仍是很好的。我将IMMR的好处列出如下：

 1. Immersion Corporation（IMMR）拥有3500多项专利，并且在超过30亿个设备中都有参与。该公司在2020年备受关注，因为它是Sony新款Playstation 5的触觉组件制造商。根据第三方分析网站VGchartz的报告，该网站跟踪了整个游戏行业的销售数据，新的PS5于11月12日（在北美推出该游戏机）和11月19日在英国和欧洲推出，销售了至少210万台PS5。根据IMMR首席执行官的说法，每台PS5可能会购买不止一个触觉设备以便多人操作。索尼一直在增加对Playstation 5的需求，预计在2020年将发售9百万-1000万台设备。这比之前计划的600万台有所增加，这是一个好兆头，因为该公司花了八个月的时间才出货1000万台Playstation 4s。对于IMMR来说，这应该是分常正面的。

 2.Colliers证券分析师今天重申IMMR“买入”评级，目标价格为15。

 3. Zach's Research将IMMR排名为第二级（买入）的股票。

 4. IMMR的2021年前瞻市盈率为14.95，预计2021年的盈利增长为+ 125％。

 5.有21间对冲基金购买了IMMR股票。

 6.机构拥有IMMR股票的80％，大量的机构支持。 

 7. IMMR的流通量只有2625万股。

 8.  从技术上讲，IMMR处于加速上升的趋势，并且势头强劲。接下来的两个阻力是15，然后是历史最高水平17.71。支撑是10 至12.

BABA Is In Trouble BABA有麻烦

On December 24, China's State Administration for Market Regulation said that it's investigating the e-commerce giant over a policy that forces merchants to sell exclusively with Alibaba and skip rival platforms JD.com and Pinduoduo. Alibaba (BABA) stock dropped over 13% in the same day. 

More bad news came during the weekend as CNBC reported: "The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, summoned Ant executives on Saturday and ordered them to formulate a rectification plan and an implementation timetable of its business. The statement said that Ant Group lacked a sound governance mechanism, defied regulatory compliance requirements and engaged in regulatory arbitrage. The orders from regulators could limit Ant Group’s expansion and throw its lucrative finance businesses into disarrayChinese regulators last month halted Ant’s $37 billion stock debut in Shanghai and Hong Kong over regulatory changes." 

 People’s Bank of China’s deputy governor Pan Gongsheng released a statement on sunday: "Ant must return to its origins in online payments and prohibit irregular competition, protect customers’ privacy in operating its personal credit rating business, establish a financial holding company to manage its businesses, rectify any irregularities in its insurance, wealth management and credit businesses, and run its asset-backed securities business in accordance with regulations." 

This directive implies that Ant Group's credit, insurance and investment product lines may need to be dumped and presents a serious threat to the growth and most lucrative operations of billionaire Jack Ma’s online finance empire according to Bloomberg. Alibaba owns 1/3 of Ant Group. 

An article by Mootly Fool noted: "Jack Ma has been under a regulatory spotlight since October when he made several remarks that drew the ire of the CCP, mocking them for being too risk averse and criticizing the financial regulatory system in other ways. Chinese state-run media responded with its own attack on Ma and his speech, and shortly after that, it blocked the Ant Financial IPO, which was set to be the biggest ever in the world.“

With the above negative background information, Alibaba's stock will likely be under downward pressure for a while. The technicals of BABA stocks looks very bearish as it has formed a 4 month Head and Shoulder top formation. It also dropped below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages, this means the stock's short, intermediate and long term trends are all down. With Thursday's volume at 7.9 times average, BABA's momentum is down. So don't be brave to buy the dip. BABA's intial support is Thursday's low at 211 and intial resistance is Thursday's high at 230. However, since it has retraced more than 61.8% of the previous uptrend, the odd of a 100% downside retracement to 170 is high.

12月24日，中国国家市场监督管理总局表示，正在对商务巨头阿里巴巴就一项电子商务政策进行调查。该政策迫使商家仅与阿里巴巴进行销售，而跳过竞争对手京东和拼多多平台。阿里巴巴（BABA）股价当天下跌超过13％。

周末还有更多的坏消息，据 CNBC报道：“中国央行中国人民银行周六召集了蚂蚁高管，命令他们制定整改计划和业务实施时间表。声明说，蚂蚁集团缺乏健全的治理机制，无视监管合规要求并参与监管套利。监管机构的命令可能会限制蚂蚁集团的扩张并使其利润丰厚的金融业务陷入混乱。中国监管机构曾于上个月停止了蚂蚁金服在上海和香港的370亿美元IPO。” 

中国人民银行副行长潘功胜周日发表声明：“蚂蚁必须回到网上支付的起源，禁止不正当竞争，在经营个人信用评级业务时保护客户的隐私，建立金融控股公司来管理其业务，纠正其保险，财富管理和信贷业务中的任何违规行为，并按照规定经营其资产支持证券业务。” 根据彭博社的说法，该指令暗示可能需要抛弃蚂蚁集团的信贷，保险和投资产品线，并对亿万富翁马云在线金融帝国的发展和最有利可图的业务构成严重威胁。阿里巴巴拥有蚂蚁集团1/3的股份。

 Mootly Fool的一篇文章指出：“马云（Jack Ma）自10月份以来一直受到监管关注，当时他发表了几条引起中共愤怒的言论，嘲笑他们过分规避风险，并以其他方式批评金融监管体系。国家媒体对马云及其讲话做出了自己的回应，随后不久，又阻止了蚂蚁金服的IPO，如果能上市，这会是世界上规模最大的IPO。

 鉴于上述负面背景信息，阿里巴巴的股票可能会在一段时间内承受下行压力。 BABA股票的技术面非常看跌，因为它已经形成了四个月的头肩顶形态。它也跌破了20、50和200日移动平均线，这意味着该股的短期，中期和长期趋势都是下跌。由于周四的交易量是平均水平的7.9倍，BABA的势头向下。因此，不要趁低购买。 BABA的初始支撑位是周四的低点211，初始阻力位是周四的高点230。但是，由于它已经回撤了之前上升趋势幅度的61.8％，因此完全回撤100%上次涨幅的可能性高，那将会到170。

Bitcoin Surges To Nearly $26000, $30000 Imminent 比特币飙升至接近$26000, $30000在即

Bitcoin buyers staged a sneak attach during the Christmas Holiday and drove Bitcoin price to historical high above $25000! Bitcoin surged from December 24 close of $23591 to Saturday morning's  $25985 high, a $2394 gain in less than 48 hours.  I predicted this happening using Measured Move calculation  in my December 3, 2020 blog. The trend is so bullish that buyers cannot wait to buy. Bitcoin challenging $30000 looks imminent. The key for the bullishness is institutions are here to buy Bitcoin. The following twit by CoinTelegraph Editor in Chief Jon Rise describes this happening vividly:

CoinTelegraph Editor in Chief Jon Rice @JonRiceCrypto twitted about Bitcoin on October 27, 2020 2016: 

2016: The institutions are coming! 

2017: The institutions are coming! 

2018: The institutions are coming! 

2019: The institutions are coming! 

2020: The institutions are here! 

2021: Dammit, the institutions bought all the #Bitcoin! 

Following are Bitcoin holdings for corporations and investment funds:

GrayScale: 449596 Bitcoins as of September 2020

Microstrategy:  70000 Bitcoins as of December 2020

CoinShares: 69730 Bitcoins as of October 9, 2020

Guggenheim: 22000 as of December 2020

Galaxy Digital Holdings: 16651 Bitcoins as of June 30, 2020

3iQ: 8295 Bitcoins as of October 9, 2020

ETC Group: 5215 Bitcoins

Mass Mutual: 4400 Bitcoins as of December 2020

Square: 4709 Bitcoins as of October, 2020

Hut and Mining: 2954 Bitcoin as of Q2 2020

Voyager Digital: 1239 Bitcoins as of March 31, 2020.

Sky Capital:1100 Bitcoin as of December 2020

Riot Blockchain: 1053 Bitcoins as of June 30, 2020

In December 20, 2020  Bloomberg reported that Elon Musk inquired about converting “large transactions” of Tesla Inc.’s balance sheet into Bitcoin in a Twitter exchange with Michael Saylor, a prominent booster of the digital currency. On the same day Coindesk reported that Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at investment firm Jefferies, is reportedly planning to cut his exposure to gold for the first time in years in favor of a first-time ever position in bitcoin. Wood is set to cut his gold position from 50% to 45% and initiate a 5% bitcoin holding. Coindesk also reported that Cryptocurrency lending firm BlockFi announced its partnership with Visa to launch a bitcoin-back credit card in early 2021. 

It is happening, more and more corporations are planning to get into Bitcoin because they believe that's where money can be made. Imagine, if every major corporation buys bitcoin as reserve, bitcoin could have a dramatic rise.  Bitcoin can easily top $100000 by the end of 2021since it's only less than 300% gain from here and it's tiny compare with the one year rise of 2600% in 2017. Bitcoin's price rise is still in its early stage, it's not too late to participate. Following institutions participation, there will likely be the euphoric retail investors action to come!

比特币买家在圣诞节期间对比特币进行买入偷袭，将比特币价格推高至接近26,000美元的历史新高！比特币从12月24日收盘价23591美元飙升至周六上午的高位25985美元，在不到48小时的时间内上涨了2394美元。我在2020年12月3日的博客中使用升幅量度法（Measured Move）的计算预测了这种情况。比特币趋势是如此的看涨，以至于买家迫不及待的抢购。看来比特币向上挑战$30000在即。看涨的关键是机构正在进入比特币。

CoinTelegraph总编辑Jon Rise在以下的推文技巧生动地描述了这种情况：

CoinTelegraph总编辑Jon Rice @JonRiceCrypto在2020年10月27日对比特币的推文：

2016年：机构来了！

2017：机构来了！

2018：机构来了！

2019：机构来了！ 

2020年：机构已经到来了！ 

2021年：该死的，这些机构购买了所有比特币！

以下是企业及投资基金的比特币持有量：

Grayscale：截至2020年9月有449596比特币 

Microstrategy：截至2020年12月有70000比特币 

Guggenheim:截至2020年12月有22000个比特币

CoinShares：截至2020年10月9日有69730个比特币

Galaxy Digital Holdings：截至2020年6月30日有16651比特币 

3iQ：截至2020年10月9日有8295比特币 

ETC集团：5215比特币 

Mass Mutual:截至2020年12月有4400比特币 

Square：截至2020年10月有4709比特币 

Hut and Minging：截至2020年第二季度有2954比特币 

Voyager Digital：截至2020年3月31日有1239个比特币

Sky Capital:截至2020年12月有1100比特币

Riot Blockchain：截至2020年6月30日有1053个比特币 

 2020年12月20日，彭博社报道，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在Twitter 上向 Microstrategy de 迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）询问了如何将特斯拉公司资产负债表的“大笔交易”转换为比特币的问题。同一天，Coindesk报道说，投资公司Jefferies的全球股票策略主管克里斯托弗·伍德（Christopher Wood）计划数年来首次减少其黄金投资，转而使用有史以来第一次的比特币头寸。伍德准备将其黄金头寸从50％削减至45％，并开始持有5％的比特币。 Coindesk还报告称，加密货币借贷公司BlockFi宣布与Visa结成伙伴关系，将于2021年初推出比特币支持的信用卡。

情况正在发生，越来越多的公司计划进入比特币市场，因为他们认为这是可以赚钱的地方。想象一下，如果每个大型公司都购买比特币作为储备，比特币就会急剧上升。到2021年底，比特币很容易达到10万美元，因为从这还不到300％增幅，与2017年的2600％的一年上升相比，这是很微小的。比特币的上升还是刚刚起步，现在参与还不迟。继机构进场后，还有散户的疯狂追捧随之而来呢！

Reasons To Buy GM 买GM的理由

General Motor (GM 42.59) is America's biggest auto maker. It is a money making auto maker without EV, unlike other not profitable EV makers boosting their stock prices only by hypes and investors emotion. GM is a solid company ready to accelerate its EV development. As a company with 112 years of auto making experience and many manufacturing facilities ( GM has 1182 facilities across the U.S., including 11 assembly plants; 25 stamping, propulsion, component and battery plants; 19 parts distribution centers; and two engineering campuses), it is not hard to see that start up EV companies will not be its match down the road. Following are reasons to buy GM:

1. It's a value play. Forward PE is only 7 while SP500 Forward PE is 24. Price to Sales ratio is o.52 while the average of this ratio for the auto industry is 2. Price to Book ratio  is only 1.35 while under 3 is consider under value. Price to Cash ratio is only 1.63 while under 15 is consider good. 

2. It's a growth play. GM is targeting to sell over 1 million EVs by 2025. CEO Mary Barra said :"We're committed to fighting for EV market share until we are number one in North America, achieving margins similar to or higher than our ICE business and exceeding our previous target of selling 1 million vehicles globally by mid-decade." 

3. Plenty of institution sponsor as institutions own 80% of GM stocks.

4. Technically, GM has corrected back down to strong support at 40 after a surge from March low near 15 to November's all time high near 47. 40 looks like the floor for GM and resistances are 47. Analysts consensus rating is Strong Buy, price target is 50.82.

通用汽车（GM 42.59）是美国最大的汽车制造商。与其他不赚钱而只靠大肆炒作及投资人情绪来推高它们的股价的电动车制造商不同，GM是一家还没有电动车的赚钱汽车制造商。通用汽车是一家稳固的公司，准备加速其电动汽车的发展。作为拥有112年汽车制造经验和许多制造工厂的公司（通用汽车在美国拥有1182个工厂，包括11个装配厂； 25个冲压，推进，零部件和电池厂； 19个零件配送中心；以及两个工程园区），不难看出，将来新兴的电动汽车公司的发展将不能与它相比。以下是一些购买通用汽车的原因：

 1.这是一只价值股：前瞻市盈率仅为7而标普500前瞻PE则是24。价位/销售率仅为o.52，而汽车行业的平均价位/销售率为2。价位/帐面价值率仅为1.35，而低于3则被认为是价值被低估。价位/现金率仅为1.63，而低于15则已是不错。

2.这是一只成长股：通用汽车的目标是到2025年销售超过100万辆电动汽车。首席执行官玛丽·巴拉（Mary Barra）表示：“我们致力于争取电动汽车市场份额，直到我们在北美排名第一，实现与ICE业务相同或更高的利润率，并超越我们先前的目标是到这个十年的中期在全球销售100万辆汽车。” 

3. 机构拥有通用汽车80％的股份，大量机构赞助。

4.从技术上讲，在从3月的低点15飙升至11月的历史最高点47附近之后，通用汽车已经回调至40的强劲支撑。40看起来是通用汽车的价位底线，阻力位是47。分析师们的共识评级为强买，目标价为50.82。

Is TSLA Bubble Burst Imminent?TSLA泡沫爆破在即？

Throughout my career in the stock market, I have experienced market/stock boom and bust so many time and I never believe the hype in EV stocks such as TSLA and NIO will last because they are priced so rediculously against fundamentals.  Granted, they are good short term momentum trade, but never a good long term hold.  But I have stay away from them to avoid risks and they are not the only places that money can be made. 

According to Research Affiliates research article released yesterday, at the current $608 Billion capitalization, TSLA is larger than 9 biggest car makers in the world add together.  These car makers are: Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Ford, SAIC, Hyundai-Kia, General Motor, Renault Nissan, Volkswagen and Toyota. Just this fact, doesn't need to look further, TSLA stock price is way expensive.  TSLA's 734% surge this year is all hype without fundamental supports. Now, TSLA is to join the S&P 500 next Monday (December 22, 2020), experts said this may be the end of TSLA's rise. Another problem is since TSLA is so big (top 10) inside the S&P 500, it's demise will definitely drag the stock market with it since the S&P 500 valuation is also very high. 

                                                          Source Research Affliates

Exerpts from ZeroHedge article: On Monday TSLA Will  Join The S&P 500, Here Is What Happen Next?

Twitter user SqueezeMetrics who lays out why the index inclusion of TSLA may be the worst possible news for Tesla bulls as its "bursts the Tesla" bubble. 

How S&p inclusion bursts the Tesla bubble: Ever since June (at $200/share), Tesla stock has been driven by a perpetual motion machine of hype and call option flows -- nothing more. And everyone knows it.

Here's what not everyone knows: When a stock joins the S&P 500, it becomes part of a massive volatility complex, which is a terrifying web of arbitrage and pseudo-arbitrage relationships. Tesla will join the index as a top-ten component of a cap-weighted index. It's big. Its bigness will allow all manner of dispersion, relative value, and market-making traders to begin relying on Tesla's newfound correlation to the index. This will invariably cause arbitrageurs to buy SPX options/volatility and sell TSLA options/volatility to "close the spread." 

Since Tesla stock is driven by the returns on call options, it is a slave to "vanna": the relationship between option prices (implied volatility) and delta (stock exposure). In other words, since June, TSLA goes up only when implied volatility (IV) goes up (purple line is IV).When Tesla joins the index, these historic call option flows and the hype machine behind them will hit the big red fire truck that is the S&P, at 500mph. Implied volatility will be unable to rise. Call options will bleed value. New flows will be absorbed by real traders. With the call option hype trade hampered, the stock will have no possibility of further returns -- a deliciously ironic end to the ugliest of Robinhood's many ugly children. And an appropriately ironic fate for Tesla - a victim of its own "success."

Too bearish? We give the final word to investing icon Arnott whose assessment is hardly more optimistic: "When people say, ‘When is the Tesla bubble going to burst?’ I’ve jokingly said on the 22nd of December,” Arnott said. "Nobody knows, but that’s when the index addition argument disappears and that’s when the market starts to search out what the company’s really worth." We will know if Arnott is right in just a few days.

According to Research Affiliates article " Tesla, The Largest Cap Ever To Enter The S&P 500: A Buy Signal Or  A Bubble": "Tesla is worth about $1.4 million for every car the company is expected to produce this year and around $500,000 for every car the company has produced over its history. Tesla's valuation, per dollar of revenue, per dollar of profit, or per car produced, is well over 100 times that of the nine largest auto companies. " TSLA sure looks like a big bubble.

在我的整个财务职业生涯中，我经历了很多次市场/股票的繁荣和萧条，我从来都不相信TSLA和NIO等电动汽车的炒作推高股价会持续，因为它们的定价相对于基本面而言是如此的可笑。 当然，它们是很好的短期动量力易，但绝不是长期的持有的好股票。 我一直远离它们以避免风险，而且它们不是唯一可以赚钱的地方。

根据Research Affiliates昨日发表的研究文章，按目前的6,080亿美元市值，TSLA的规模超过全球9家最大的汽车制造商的总和。这些汽车制造商是：菲亚特克莱斯勒，本田，福特，上汽，现代起亚，通用，雷诺日产，大众汽车和丰田。正是这个事实，不需要进一步研究，TSLA股票价格非常离谱。 TSLA今年的734％涨幅都是在没有基本支撑的情况下被大肆炒作所推高的。现在，TSLA将在下周一（2020年12月22日）加入标准普尔500指数，专家表示这可能是TSLA崛起的终结。另一个问题是，由于TSLA在标准普尔500指数中如此之大（前10名），它的消亡肯定会拖累股市，因为标准普尔500的估值也很高。

                                                            源自Research Affliates

以下是ZeroHedge文章“周一TSLA将加入标准普尔500指数，接下来会发生什么？” 的摘记：

Twitter用户SqueezeMetrics阐明了为什么将TSLA纳入指数可能是特斯拉多头最糟糕的消息，因为它“刺破了特斯拉”泡沫。

标准普尔的加入如何刺破特斯拉泡沫：自6月以来（每股200美元），特斯拉股价一直受到炒作和看涨期权流动的永久运动机器的推动-仅此而已。每个人都知道的。

不是所有人都知道的是：当股票加入标准普尔500指数时，它就成为庞大的波动性综合体的一部分，这是套利和伪套利关系的恐怖网。特斯拉将作为上限加权指数的前十名加入该指数。好大。它的庞大性将使各种分散，相对价值和做市商开始依赖特斯拉新发现的与该指数的相关性。这将不可避免地导致套利者购买SPX期权/波动率并出售TSLA期权/波动率以“弥合价差”。

由于特斯拉股票受看涨期权收益的驱动，因此它是“虚假”的奴隶：期权价格（隐含波动率）与差额Delta（股票参与）之间的关系。换句话说，自6月以来，仅当隐含波动率（IV）上升（紫色线为IV）时，TSLA才会上升。当TSLA加入标准普尔时，这些看涨期权流量及背后的炒作机器就像红色的救火车以时速500英里撞向标准普尔。隐含波动率将无法上升。认购期权将流失价值。真正的交易者将吸收新的资金流。由于看涨期权的炒作交易受阻，该股票将没有进一步回报的可能-这是对最丑陋的罗宾汉Robin hood平台丑陋孩子们的一个讽刺的结尾。对于特斯拉来说，这是一个具有讽刺意味的命运，它本身就是“成功”的受害者。

太看跌了吗？我们将最终决定权交给投资偶像阿诺特Rob Arnolt，他的评估几乎也同样不乐观：“当人们说，'特斯拉泡沫何时破裂？'我开玩笑说12月22日，”阿诺特说。但是当指数加入的论据消失，那是市场开始寻找公司真正价值的时候。”我们将在短短几天内知道Arnott是否正确。

根据研究联盟Research Affliates 的文章: “特斯拉，有史以来最大的市值进入标准普尔500指数：买入信号还是泡沫”：“（基于特斯拉的市值）以特斯拉今年公司预计产量来算，每辆汽车价值约140万美元，以特斯拉总历史产量来算，每辆汽车价值约500,000美元。特斯拉的估值，每美元的营业额，每美元的利润或每辆生产的汽车的估值，都是9家最大的汽车公司的100倍以上。“看来TSLA是个大泡沫。

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Scary Statistics Against NIO对NIO不利的可怕统计

In the last year, led by TSLA feeding frenzy in EV stocks indiscriminately drove all EV stocks large and small to sky high valuations. One could and still can see bubble bursting in this kind of stocks. Sure enough in the past month, XPEV dropped 39% from top, while LI, SOLO, NIU, and NIO dropped 36%, 36%, 47%, 23% and 22% respectively. The focus here is NIO. NIO's valuation is way ahead of itself, when you buy NIO, you are paying a very dear price hoping that things will go perfectly smooth in the future. When the current stock price already reflecte d developments that can only be achieved many years later, you are definitely not getting a good deal.   Even though NIO dropped the least among these stocks, however base on the following statistics, is is not likely that NIO's current valuation can be sustained and more downside for the stock is likely. 

Technically, NIO topped out at $57.20. It found support at $39 and is now trading between 50 day moving average $39 support and 20 day moving average $47 resistance. Overall trend is still up since it is above 50 day moving average. The level to watch is $39, a bearish Head and Shoulder Top will then be confirmed and trend turns down once this level is broken. 

NIO negative statistics:

1. NIO stock is up 1624% this year so far while king of EV TSLA is only up 721% ( this is already a outrageous gain). The S&p 500 is only up 15% for the year. 

2. NIO is not profitable so there's no PE while S&P500 forward PE for 2021 is 24 ( This is already much higher than 10 year average of 15 and 5 year average of 18). TSLA and GM's forward PE are 163 and 7 respectively.

3. NIO Price to Sale ratio is 34 while TSLA is 21. The largest auto company in the US is GM and its Price to Sale is only 0.52! For this ratio, anything below 5 is healthy.

4. NIO Price to Book ratio is 44 while TSLA and GM are 36 and 1.37 respectively. For this ratio, anything below 5 is healthy.

5. NIO stock price is around $45 but analysts consensus price target is only $38. 

6. NIO sold only 14169 cars so far this year while TSLA sold 139300 and  GM sold 665192 cars so far this year.

7. NIO has a capitalization of $65 Billion and is larger than GM's $61 Billions！ This is ridiculous since GM sold 47 times more cars than NIO, how can NIO's capitalization larger than GM's. Of course, TSLA's capitalization at $607B is even more ridiculous as it's 10 times that of GM while selling only about 1/5 of GM sold in number of cars.

8. Competitions in the EV market is going to be fierce in the future. CNN posted a chart that projects biggest EV makers and their volume of productions by 2025 as follow. NIO is not on the list and TSLA only ranks 4th. 

过去一去年，由TSLA带动投资人对电动汽车股票的不加选择地注入了狂热，使所有大小的电动汽车股票都升到了极端高的估值水平。人们可以而且仍然可以看到这类股票的泡沫破裂。果然，过去一个月XPEV的股价下降了39％，而LI，SOLO，NIU和NIO分别下降了36％，36％，47％，23％和22％。这里的重点是蔚来NIO。蔚来的估值被推得极高，当您购买NIO时，您付出了非常高的价格，希望将来公司会发展完美的事事顺利。当现在的股价已反映了多年后才达到的发展时，您肯定不会得到好的回报。尽管NIO在这些股票中跌幅最小，但是基于以下统计数据，NIO的当前估值不可能持续下去，股票再跌的可能性大。

从技术上讲，蔚来汽车从最高价57.20美元回落。它在39美元处获得支撑，目前在50日移动均线39美元支撑位和20日移动均线47美元阻力位之间交易。因为仍高于50天移动平均线，总体趋势仍看涨。要关注的水平是39美元，一旦跌穿该水平将确认看跌的头肩顶形态，趋势就会转为下跌。

对NIO负面的统计：

1. 今年到目前为止，蔚来汽车的股价上涨了1624％，而电动汽车的龙头TSLA仅上涨了721％（这已经是惊人的增长）。标普500指数今年仅上涨了15％。

 2. NIO还没有盈利，因此没有市盈率，而S＆P500的2021年前瞻市盈率仅为24（这已经远远高于10年平均值15和5年平均值18）。相比之下， TSLA和GM的前瞻PE只分别为163和7。

 3. NIO的价格销售比是34，而TSLA是21。美国最大的汽车公司是通用汽车，其销售价格只有0.52！对于此比率，低于5才是健康的。

 4. NIO的价格对账面价值比率是44，而TSLA和GM分别是36和1.37。对于此比率，低于5才是健康的。 

 5.现在NIO的股价约为45美元，但分析师的共识目标价仅为38美元。

 6.今年截至目前，蔚来汽车仅售出14169辆汽车，而同期TSLA售出139300辆，通用汽车则售出665192辆。

 7. NIO的资本总额已达到650亿美元，大于GM的610亿美元！这是荒谬的，因为GM的汽车销量是NIO的47倍，NIO的资本总额又怎能超过GM的呢。当然，TSLA的市值$ 607B更加荒谬，因为它是GM的10倍，而汽车销量仅为GM的1/5。

8.未来电动汽车市场的竞争将会很激烈。 CNN发布了一张图表，预测2025年最大的电动汽车制造商及它们的产量。 NIO不在列表中，TSLA也仅排名第四。

Bitcoin: Difference Between Now and 2017 比特币：现在和2017年的不同处

Bitcoin broke above the psychological resistance $20000 today after 1 month of consolidation. In December 2017, Bitcoin went as high as $19666 and then crash 84% down to $3122 during the following 1 year. There is a big difference between now and 2017. In 2017, euphoric sentiment of retail investors drove  Bitcoin price to extreme, however, in 2020, institutions are driving Bitcoin up. Bitcoin should still have a lot of room to run since most retail investors are still not in yet. So be FOMO, be fear of missing out this big opportunity!

Below are the latest Bitcoin news round up:

1. Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC’s Mad Money and founder of financial news site TheStreet, explained in an interview on his news site why he chose to invest in Bitcoin. “You want to diversify into all sorts of asset classes,” said Cramer, who did not disclose the size of his investment. “It’s not a big position for me, but it’s certainly important to be diversified and Bitcoin is an asset. And I want to have a balance of assets,” he said. For hesitant investors, Cramer said “there’s ample literature” about Bitcoin, but that the history of Bitcoin’s volatility tells its own story. Among Cramer’s influencers are Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano, cofounder of Morgan Creek Digital, and Jason Sexton, who tweeted “Buy Bitcoin!!!!”.Robert Stevens of Decrypt reported 12/13/2020 

 2. On Thursday , 12/12/3030, the 169-year old Mass Mutual insurance firm announced bitcoin purchases worth $100 million, as well as a $5 million equity stake in NYDIG – a financial services firm focused on bitcoin with $2.3 billion in the asset under management. MassMutual's move suggests insurance firms and Pension funds are beginning to look at bitcoin as an investment/reserve asset alongside increased demand from wealthy investors and family offices.According to JPMorgan, bitcoin may find an additional demand of $600 billion if pensions insurance firms in the US, EU, UK and Japan.  ---ZeroHedge 12/13/2020

 3. At the start of 2020, Ripio, one of Argentina’s largest crypto exchanges, had around 400,000 users. It’s finishing the year with 1 million. Ripio’s chief brand officer, Juan Mendez, told CoinDesk that around 70% of Ripio users are from Argentina, with the remainder mostly concentrated in Brazil. According to Mendez, the platform also saw a tenfold increase in trading volume this year compared to last. “I’ve been with the exchange pretty much from the beginning and I’ve never seen this kind of growth. This is bigger than the 2017 spike on operations and on demand,” Mendez said. ---Coindesk 12/14/2020 

 4. According to statistics from on-chain analytics resource Glassnode, the number of Bitcoin wallets containing a whole coin or more is at a new all-time high. As of Sunday, almost 827,000 wallets had a balance of 1 BTC or more. ---CoinTelegraph 12/14/2020 

 5. In November, Ruffer allocated what is currently worth approximately 2.5% of its multi-strategies fund to bitcoin , per the memo, or roughly $15 million. The fund manages roughly $620 billion. "We see this as a small but potent insurance policy against the continuing devaluation of the world's major currencies," the London-based firm wrote. "Bitcoin diversifies the company's (much larger) investments in gold and inflation-linked bonds, and acts as a hedge to some of the monetary and market risks that we see." ---Coindesk 12/15/2020 

 6. Robert Kiyosaki, the best-selling author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” says Bitcoin is heading to $50,000 in 2021. “Glad I bought Bitcoin. Next stop $50k. Wall of institutional money coming 2021. Buy below $20k. If you missed Bitcoin, buy silver. Silver set to move due to AOC's Green New Deal. America in trouble. Future bright for gold silver Bitcoin and entrepreneurs." Bitcoin is in a favorable position to rally in the upcoming months because of its low correlation with the stock market. Traditional safe-haven assets, like gold, often pull back when US equities rally. In the case of BTC, it has shown a relatively low correlation with US stocks. Hence, Bitcoin has seen sharp uptrends even when equities increase in value.The lack of correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks likely comes from two factors. First, when risk-on assets increase, BTC benefits from an overall rise in investor appetite. Second, stocks have increased in recent months due to unprecedented central bank liquidity injections. Relaxed financial conditions benefit Bitcoin because investors move to hedge against inflation. ---CoinTelegraph 12/15/2020 

 7. According to Bloomberg's Erik Shatzker, a hedge fund specializing in volatility bets-one which is very familiar to regular Zero Hedge readers-has emerged as one of the largest investors in Bitcoin after quietly buying more than $600 million in cryptocurrencies and joining forces with legendary trader Alan Howard, co-founder of Brevan Howard Asset Management. Echoing what we have said repeatedly in recent months, namely that the next leg higher in bitcoin will come on the back of institutional rotation into the cryptocurrency, Eric Peters, CEO of One River Asset Management, told Bloomberg he set up a new company to seize on the growing interest in cryptocurrencies among institutional investors. In addition to its initial purchases, One River Digital Asset Management has commitments that will bring its holdings of Bitcoin and Ether to about $1 billion as of early 2021. ---ZeroHedge 12/16/2020 

8.Many financial advisors get questions about bitcoin from investors that don’t know a lot about the cryptocurrency and have just heard about it in the news. It can be easy to have FOMO, or fear of missing out, on the latest hot investing trend, according to Roger Ma, CFP and founder of New York-based financial planning firm lifelaidout. ---CNBC 12/16/2020 

9. Scott Minerd is the chief investment officer for Guggenheim Investments and manager of the $5.3B Guggenheim Macro Opportunities Fund (GIOIX, GIOAX). They made news last month with a rule change which would allow the fund to put up to 10% of its net asset value in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Speaking to Bloomberg's Tom Keene today, Minerd says his team's fundamental work suggests Bitcoin should be worth $400K.  ---SeekingAlpha 12/16/2020

比特币经过1个月的盘整后今天大举突破了心理阻力位20000美元！ 2017年12月，比特币最高达到19666美元，然后在接下来的一年内暴跌84％至3122美元。 现在的情况和2017年之间有很大的不同。在2017年，散户投资者的极端看涨情绪将比特币价格推到了极点，但是，在2020年，推动比特币价格上涨的是机构。 比特币应该仍然有很大的上升空间，因为大多数散户投资者还没有入市。 因此，现在要有FOMO（怕错过）的心态，不要错过这个巨大的机会！

下面是一些最新比特币新闻：

 1. CNBC的《疯狂的钱》（Mad Money）主持人，金融新闻网站TheStreet的创始人吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）在其新闻网站上接受采访时解释了为什么他选择投资比特币。克莱默说：“您想多元化进入各种资产类别。”他没有透露投资规模。 “对我来说，这不是一个大头寸，但多元化发展当然很重要，而比特币是一种资产。我想拥有资产平衡，”他说。对于犹豫不决的投资者，克莱默说“关于比特币的文献很多”，但是比特币的波动性历史说明了它的故事。克莱默的影响者包括Morgan Creek Digital的共同创始人Anthony“ Pomp” Pompliano和发推特“购买比特币！！”的JasonSexton。---Decrypt的罗伯特·史蒂文斯（Robert Stevens）报告2020年12月13日 

 2. 2020年12月12日，星期四，这家拥有169年历史的Mass Mutual保险公司宣布购买价值1亿美元的比特币，并购买了NYDIG的500万美元股权。NYDIG是一家专注于比特币的金融服务公司， 管理资产有23亿美元。 MassMutual的举动表明，保险公司和养老基金开始将比特币视为一种投资/储备资产，同时富裕投资者和家族办公室的需求也在增加。据摩根大通（JPMorgan）称，如果 美国，欧盟，英国和日本的养老保险公司投入，对比特币的需求可能达到6000亿美元。 ---ZeroHedge 12/13/2020

 3. 2020年初，阿根廷最大的加密货币交易所之一Ripio拥有约40万用户。今年以来，这一数字已达到100万。 Ripio的首席品牌官Juan Mendez告诉CoinDesk，Ripio的用户中约70％来自阿根廷，其余的大部分集中在巴西。根据Mendez的说法，该平台今年的交易量也比去年增长了十倍。 “从一开始我就一直在交易所工作，从未见过这种增长。这比2017年的运营和需求高峰要大。” Mendez说。 --- Coindesk 12/14/2020 

 4.根据链上分析资源Glassnode的统计，包含整枚或更多的比特币钱包数量创历史新高。截至周日，近827,000个钱包的余额为1 BTC或更多。 --- CoinTelegraph 12/14/2020 

 5. 在11月份Ruffer将其目前价值约2.5％的多策略基金分配给了比特币，约合1500万美元。该基金管理着大约6,200亿美元。总部位于伦敦的该公司写道：“我们认为这是针对全球主要货币持续贬值的小型但有效的保险政策。” “比特币使公司在黄金和通货膨胀相关债券上的（更大）投资多样化，并作为对冲我们看到的一些货币和市场风险的工具。” --- Coindesk 12/15/2020 

 6.罗伯特·清崎（Robert Kiyosaki）是《富爸爸穷爸爸》（Rich Dad Poor Dad）的最畅销作者，他说比特币在2021年将达到50,000美元。 2021年即将到来的机构资金将在2万美元以下买入。如果您错过了比特币，请购买白银。由于AOC的绿色新政，白银开始上涨。美国陷入困境。对于黄金白银比特币和企业家来说，前途一片光明。”比特币由于与股市的相关性较低，因此在接下来的几个月中处于有利位置。传统的避险资产，例如黄金，在美国股市上涨时通常会回落。就比特币而言，它与美国股票的相关性相对较低。因此，即使股票价值上涨，比特币也呈现出急剧的上升趋势。比特币与美国股票之间的相关性缺乏可能来自两个因素。在资产增加方面，比特币受益于整体投资者胃口；其次，近几个月来，由于央行前所未有的流动性注入，股票有所增加；宽松的金融条件使比特币受益，因为投资者开始对冲通货膨胀--- CoinTelegraph 12/15 / 2020 

 7.根据彭博社的埃里克·沙茨克（Erik Shatzker）的说法，专门从事波动性赌注的对冲基金-零对冲读者应该非常熟悉的对冲基金-在悄悄购买了超过6亿美元的加密货币并与之合作之后，已成为比特币的最大投资者之一。传奇交易员艾伦·霍华德（Alan Howard），布雷文·霍华德（Brevan Howard）是资产管理公司的联合创始人。 One River Asset Management首席执行官埃里克·彼得斯（Eric Peters）告诉彭博社，他呼应近几个月来我们反复重申的观点，即比特币的下一轮上涨将源于机构向加密货币的轮换。机构投资者对加密货币的兴趣日益浓厚。除了最初购买外，One River Digital Asset Management还承诺到2021年初将其持有的比特币和以太币增至约10亿美元。--- ZeroHedge 12/16/2020

8. 许多财务顾问从对加密货币了解不多的投资者那里得到了有关比特币的问题，而他们只是在新闻中听说过。总部设在纽约的金融规划公司lifelayoutout的首席财务官罗杰（Roger Ma）表示，在最新的热门投资趋势下，很容易产生FOMO（担心错过）这一机会的情况。---CNBC 12/16/2020

9. 斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）是古根海姆投资（Guggenheim Investments）的首席投资官，还是53亿美元的古根海姆宏观机会基金（GIOIX，GIOAX）的经理。 他们在上个月发布了一项规则更改的消息，该规则更改允许该基金将其净资产价值的10％存入灰度比特币信托（GBTC）。 Minerd今天在接受彭博社（Bloomberg）的汤姆·基恩（Tom Keene）采访时说，他的团队的基本面研究显示比特币应该值40万美元。---SeekingAlpha 12/16/2020

Powerful Bitcoin Breakout强劲的比特币突破

Bitcoin, after trading between $16000 and $2000 for about a month finally broke out and is making historically high. One could see it really coming after reports of Bitcoin buying from billionaires, hedge funds, mutual funds and corporations in recent months. People are warming up to Bitcoin as an alternative investment asset to hedge against financial crisis, the risks of fiat currencies, inflation and the over- extended global stock markets. Bitcoin is slowly replacing the functions of gold.  Rising about 195%, Bitcoin has out performed S&P 500's +15% and gold's +23% in the past year by a huge margin. With high tech stocks being the most crowed trade and people just started to trust Bitcoin, it is not hard to see that Bitcoin will be the best bet for great return next year.  With the quick move of Bitcoin, the $50000 to $100000 price targets for Bitcoin next year is not far fetch at all.  Bitcoin related ETFs and stocks are GBTC, BITW, MARA, RIOT, PYPL, SQ, MSTR, MOGO and OCFT.

比特币在经过大约一个月的16000美元至20000美元之间的盘整后，终于向上爆发并创下历史新高。在最近几个月的报道称亿万富豪，对冲基金，共同基金和企业都开始购买比特币后，人们不难看到突破的到来。人们开始热衷于使用比特币作为对冲金融危机，法定货币风险，通货膨胀和全球股票市场过度扩张的投资资产。比特币正在慢慢取代黄金的功能。在过去的一年中，比特币上涨了约195％，其表现远远超过标准普尔500指数的+ 15％和黄金的+ 23％。随着高科技股成为最挤拥的交易及人们开始信任比特币来看，不难预期，比特币将成为明年获得丰厚回报的最佳选择。以比特币价位移动的快速，明年比特币的目标价格$ 50000至$100000根本不算什么。与比特币有关的ETF及股票有 GBTC, BITW, MARA, RIOT, PYPL, SQ, MSTR, MOGO及 OCFT。

Bitcoin Sets Up As the Best Bet For 2021, What To Buy?比特币会是2021年的最佳投资，该买什么参与？

After Bitcoin rallied about 420% since  March low at $3850 to the recent $19918 high, It has been consolidating between 16200 to near 19918 for the past month already and it doesn't look like it wants to come down. Buy on dips forces have been strong. Pressure looks gathering to break 20000 and it doesn't look like it will stop until this level is broken. 

In fact, there is no incentive to sell as good news keep on coming day after day. The latest news is the Microstrategy (MSTR) says it sold $650 million of convertible notes and plans to buy about 35220 bitcoin . The company already owns 40824 bitcoins before this plan. The other news came out on Friday is that the 189 year oil Massachusetts Mutual Insurance  said it purchased $100 million in Bitcoin. 

Billionaires, hedge funds, mutual funds, corporations and institutions are recognizing that Bitcoin is an investment asset that cannot be ignored and they have been buying in. Now what need to happen is the waking up of retail investors and a bitcoin feeding frenzy is going to happen like the dot coms in the 2000, the work- at -home and EV stocks this year.  The easy to use platforms from Square (SQ), PayPal (PYPL) and Robinhood which have hundreds of millions of accounts, when these accounts start to push the buy button , it's going to set Bitcoin on fire. Don't forget, there are also 190 crypto currency exchanges in the world that people can buy Bitcoin too. 

The low estimate for next years price targets ranged from $50000 to $318000. These targets are not outrageous because surges of ranging from 200% to 2600% in a year occurred in the history of Bitcoin. In fact I just mentioned at the beginning of this blog that in the last 9 months, Bitcoin rose nearly 420%. A 200% move above $20000 means Bitcoin reaches $60000 by end of next year and for 2600% move would mean $540000! So, believe it!

For more about Bitcoin on this blog, please refer to blogs Why Bitcoin Can Go Above $50000 Next Year Easily; Bitcoin Breakout Imminent imminent; and Bitcoin Is Hot, Here Is All You Need To Know.

Following are some ETFs and stocks to participate in Bitcoin's surge:

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is solely and passively invested in Bitcoin, enabling investors to gain exposure to BTC in the form of a security while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping BTC directly.

Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) A secure way to get diversified exposure to bitcoin and leading cryptocurrencies. The fund seeks to hold the 10 most highly valued cryptocurrencies, screened & monitored for certain risks, weighted by market capitalization, and rebalanced monthly. The fund provides the security and simplicity of a traditional investment vehicle, with shares tradable in brokerage accounts using ticker “BITW”

Riot Blockchain, Inc., (RIOT)together with its subsidiaries, focuses on building, supporting, and operating Blockchain technologies ecosystem. It is involved in digital currency mining operation, which utilizes specialized computers that generate digital currency primarily bitcoin. The company also holds interests in various activities, including purchasing and selling digital currencies; provides accounting, audit, and verification services for blockchain based assets, such as cryptocurrencies; and develops TessPay, a payments ecosystem for component and sub-component supply chain settlement solution, as well as other blockchain solutions for telecommunications companies. As of December 31, 2019, approximately 7,400 of the miners were installed and operating. The company was formerly known as Bioptix, Inc. and changed its name to Riot Blockchain, Inc. in October 2017. Riot Blockchain, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Castle Rock, Colorado.

Marathon Patent Group, Inc. (MARA)operates as a digital asset technology company that mines cryptocurrencies. It owns cryptocurrency mining machines and a data center to mine digital assets in Quebec, Canada. The company was formerly known as American Strategic Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Marathon Patent Group, Inc. in February 2013. Marathon Patent Group, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada. MARA said in November  that once all of its 23,560 cryptocurrency miners are deployed in the second quarter of 2021, it sees potential to produce 15 to 20 bitcoins per day, at an average cost of $3,863 per bitcoin. The company sees potential to generate revenue of $8.8 million per month, and $6.7 million in gross profit per month. On December 9,2020, Marathon Patent Group (MARA) inked a contract with Bitmain to purchase 10K Antminer S-19j Pro ASIC Miners wherein an initial batch of 6K miners will be received in August 2021 while remaining to be delivered in September 2021. Post delivery and full deployment, Marathon's mining portfolio will consist of 33,560 state of the art ASIC miners, generating 3.56 EH/s.

Square, Inc. (SQ) provides, together with its subsidiaries, payment and point-of-sale solutions in the United States and internationally. The company's commerce ecosystem includes point-of-sale software and hardware that offers sellers to payment and point-of-sale solutions. It provides hardware products, including Magstripe reader, which enables swiped transactions of magnetic stripe cards; Contactless and chip reader that accepts Europay, MasterCard, and Visa (EMV) chip cards and Near Field Communication payments; Square Stand, which enables an iPad to be used as a payment terminal or full point of sale solution; Square Register that combines its hardware, point-of-sale software, and payments technology; Square Terminal, a portable payments device that replaces keypad terminals, which accepts various payment types, such as tap, dip, and swipe, as well as prints receipts; and managed payments solutions. The company also offers various software products, including Square Point of Sale; Square Virtual Terminal; Square Appointments; Square for Retail; Square for Restaurants; Square Invoices, Square Online Store; Square Loyalty, Marketing, and Gift Cards; and Square Dashboard. In addition, it offers developer platform, which includes application programming interfaces and software development kits. Further, it provides managed payments, instant transfer, Square Card, Square Capital, and payroll. Additionally, it provides Cash App, which enables to send, spend,  store money and buy and sell stocks and Bitcoin; and Weebly that offers customers website hosting and domain name registration solutions. Square, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California. Up to October 2020, SQ owns 4079 Bitcoins.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates as a technology platform and digital payments company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide. Its payment solutions include PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, and iZettle products. The company's payments platform allows consumers to send and receive payments, withdraw funds to their bank accounts, and hold balances in their PayPal accounts in various currencies. It also offers gateway services that enable merchants to accept payments online with credit or debit cards, as well as digital wallets. PayPal Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California. PayPal has recently allow its accounts to trade Bitcoin and other major crypto currencies. 

MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) provides enterprise analytics software and services worldwide. It offers MicroStrategy 2020, an enterprise platform, which provides a modern analytics experience by delivering insights across multiple devices to users via hyperintelligence products, visualization and reporting capabilities, mobility features, and custom applications developed on the platform; analysts and data scientists with seamless access to trusted, governed data directly within their tools; and APIs and gateways, multiple deployment options, enterprise semantic graph, scalability, and security. The company also provides MicroStrategy Support that helps customers to achieve their system availability and uptime goals, and to improve the overall experience through highly responsive troubleshooting and proactive technical product support. In addition, it offers MicroStrategy Consulting that provides customers with architecture and implementation services to help them quickly realize results, and helps to achieve returns on investment derived from understanding of data; and MicroStrategy Education that offers free and paid learning options. The company provides its services through enterprise sales force and channel partners. It serves companies from a range of industries, including retail, consulting, technology, manufacturing, finance, banking, insurance, healthcare, education, and telecommunications, as well as the public sector. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia. MSTR owns 40824 Bitcoins and plans to purchase more.

在比特币自三月低点3850美元上涨约420％至最近的19918美元高点之后，过去一个月它一直在16200美元至19918美元附近进行盘整，看起来它并不想下跌。逢低买入的力量很强。突破20000美元的 压力似乎在累积，并且看起来不会停止，直到这个水平被击破。

实际上，随着日复一日的好消息不断涌现，投资人卖出比特币的意愿不大。最新消息是微策略公司（MSTR）表示，它已出售了6.5亿美元的可转换债券，并计划用来购买约35220个比特币。在此计划之前，该公司已经拥有40824个比特币。周五的另一个消息是，拥有189年历史的马萨诸塞州共同保险公司表示已购买了1亿美元的比特币。

亿万富豪，对冲基金，共同基金，企业和机构已经意识到比特币是一种不能忽视的投资资产，并且一直在买进。相似于 2000年的互联网，今年的居家工作和电动汽车股票的疯涨将发生在比特币。 Square（SQ），PayPal（PYPL）和Robinhood的易于使用购买比特币的平台拥有数亿个帐户，一旦散户意识到比特币的好，这将点燃比特币飙升。别忘了，全球还有190个加密货币交易所可供人们购买比特币。

分析师们明年的比特币价格目标为$ 50000至$ 318000。这些目标并不是胡扯，因为在比特币的历史中，曾出现过一年从200％到2600％的激增。实际上，我刚刚在此博客的开头提到，在过去9个月中，比特币已上涨了近420％。 在 20000美元的基础上，200%的上涨意味着比特币到明年年底将达到$ 60000，而2600％的上涨则意味着$ 540000！所以，相信它！

有关此博客上有关比特币的更多信息，请参阅博客:为什么明年比特币可以轻松升至$ 50000以上；比特币突破在即；比特币炙手可热，这里有您所需要知道的。

 以下是参与比特币上涨的一些ETF和股票：

灰度比特币信托（Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC）是对比特币的唯一和被动投资，使投资者能够以证券形式参与比特币，同时避免直接购买，存储和保管比特币的挑战。

 Bitwise 10加密指数基金（BITW）是一种安全的方式来获得比特币和主要加密货币的多元化参与。该基金寻求持有价值最高的10种加密货币，对某些风险进行筛选和监控，以市值加权，并每月重新平衡。该基金提供了传统投资工具的安全性和简便性。

 Riot Blockchain，Inc.（RIOT）及其子公司一起致力于建立，支持和运营区块链技术生态系统。它涉及数字货币挖掘操作，该操作利用专门的计算机生成主要是比特币的数字货币。该公司还对各种活动感兴趣，包括买卖数字货币；以及为基于区块链的资产（例如加密货币）提供会计，审计和验证服务；并开发了TessPay，这是一个用于组件和子组件供应链结算解决方案的支付生态系统，以及面向电信公司的其他区块链解决方案。截至2019年12月31日，约有7,400采矿机已安装并运行。该公司的前身为Bioptix，Inc.，并于2017年10月更名为Riot Blockchain，Inc.。Riot Blockchain，Inc.成立于2000年，总部位于科罗拉多州的Castle Rock。

Marathon Patent Group，Inc.（MARA）是一家开采加密货币的数字资产技术公司。它拥有加密货币采矿机和一个数据中心，用于挖掘加拿大魁北克的数字资产。该公司以前称为American Strategic Minerals Corporation，并于2013年2月更名为Marathon Patent Group，Inc.。Marathon Patent Group，Inc. 成立于2010年，总部位于内华达州拉斯维加斯。MARA在2020年11月表示，一旦在2021年第二季度部署了所有23,560种加密货币矿机，它就有望每天生产15至20个比特币，平均成本为每个比特币3,863美元。 该公司认为有潜力每月产生880万美元的收入，每月产生670万美元的毛利润。 2020年12月9日，马拉松专利集团（MARA）与Bitmain签订了购买10K Antminer S-19j Pro ASIC矿机的合同，其中首批6K矿工将在2021年8月收到，其余将在2021年9月交付。 交付和全面部署之后，Marathon的采矿业务将包括33,560个最先进的ASIC矿工，产生3.56 EH / s。

Square，Inc.（SQ）及其子公司在美国和全球范围内提供付款和销售点解决方案。该公司的商业生态系统包括销售点软件和硬件，可为卖家提供付款和销售点解决方案。它提供硬件产品，包括Magstripe读卡器，该卡可实现磁条卡的刷卡交易；接受Europay，MasterCard和Visa（EMV）芯片卡以及近场通信支付的非接触式芯片读取器； Square Stand，可将iPad用作支付终端或完整的销售点解决方案； Square Register结合了其硬件，销售点软件和支付技术； Square Terminal，一种便携式支付设备，取代了键盘终端，该设备可以接受各种支付类型，例如点击，浸入和刷卡，以及打印收据；和托管付款解决方案。该公司还提供各种软件产品，包括Square Point of Sale；方形虚拟终端；广场约会；零售广场；餐厅广场；方形发票，方形在线商店；广场会员卡，行销卡和礼品卡；和方形仪表板。此外，它提供了开发人员平台，其中包括应用程序编程接口和软件开发套件。此外，它提供托管付款，即时转账，Square Card，Square Capital和工资单。此外，它还提供了Cash App，可以进行汇款，支出，存储和购买股票及比特币。和Weebly为客户提供网站托管和域名注册解决方案。 Square，Inc.成立于2009年，总部位于加利福尼亚州旧金山。到十月份为止，SQ 现在拥有4079个比特币。

PayPal Holdings，Inc.( PYPL) 是一家技术平台和数字支付公司，可以代表全球消费者和商家进行数字和移动支付。其支付解决方案包括PayPal，PayPal Credit，Braintree，Venmo，Xoom和iZettle产品。该公司的付款平台允许消费者发送和接收付款，将资金提取到他们的银行帐户，以及在PayPal帐户中以各种货币保存余额。它还提供网关服务，使商家能够使用信用卡或借记卡以及数字钱包在线接受付款。PayPal Holdings，Inc.成立于1998年，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞。PayPal最近允许其帐户交易比特币和其他主要的加密货币。

MicroStrategy Incorporated（MSTR）在全球范围内提供企业分析软件和服务。它提供企业平台MicroStrategy 2020，该平台通过超智能产品，可视化和报告功能，移动性功能以及在平台上开发的自定义应用程序为用户提供跨多个设备的洞察力，从而提供现代的分析体验。分析师和数据科学家可以直接在其工具中无缝访问受信任的受管数据； API和网关，多种部署选项，企业语义图，可伸缩性和安全性。该公司还提供MicroStrategy支持，可通过快速响应的故障排除和主动的技术产品支持来帮助客户实现其系统可用性和正常运行时间目标，并改善整体体验。此外，它还提供MicroStrategy Consulting，可为客户提供体系结构和实施服务，以帮助他们快速实现结果，并帮助实现从对数据的理解中获得的投资回报； MicroStrategy Education提供免费和付费的学习选项。该公司通过企业销售人员和渠道合作伙伴提供服务。它为来自各个行业的公司提供服务，包括零售，咨询，技术，制造，金融，银行，保险，医疗保健，教育和电信以及公共部门。该公司成立于1989年，总部位于弗吉尼亚州的泰森斯角。MSTR现在拥有40824 比特币并计划继续购买。