In the last year, led by TSLA feeding frenzy in EV stocks indiscriminately drove all EV stocks large and small to sky high valuations. One could and still can see bubble bursting in this kind of stocks. Sure enough in the past month, XPEV dropped 39% from top, while LI, SOLO, NIU, and NIO dropped 36%, 36%, 47%, 23% and 22% respectively. The focus here is NIO. NIO's valuation is way ahead of itself, when you buy NIO, you are paying a very dear price hoping that things will go perfectly smooth in the future. When the current stock price already reflecte d developments that can only be achieved many years later, you are definitely not getting a good deal. Even though NIO dropped the least among these stocks, however base on the following statistics, is is not likely that NIO's current valuation can be sustained and more downside for the stock is likely.
Technically, NIO topped out at $57.20. It found support at $39 and is now trading between 50 day moving average $39 support and 20 day moving average $47 resistance. Overall trend is still up since it is above 50 day moving average. The level to watch is $39, a bearish Head and Shoulder Top will then be confirmed and trend turns down once this level is broken.
1. NIO stock is up 1624% this year so far while king of EV TSLA is only up 721% ( this is already a outrageous gain). The S&p 500 is only up 15% for the year.
2. NIO is not profitable so there's no PE while S&P500 forward PE for 2021 is 24 ( This is already much higher than 10 year average of 15 and 5 year average of 18). TSLA and GM's forward PE are 163 and 7 respectively.
3. NIO Price to Sale ratio is 34 while TSLA is 21. The largest auto company in the US is GM and its Price to Sale is only 0.52! For this ratio, anything below 5 is healthy.
4. NIO Price to Book ratio is 44 while TSLA and GM are 36 and 1.37 respectively. For this ratio, anything below 5 is healthy.
5. NIO stock price is around $45 but analysts consensus price target is only $38.
6. NIO sold only 14169 cars so far this year while TSLA sold 139300 and GM sold 665192 cars so far this year.
7. NIO has a capitalization of $65 Billion and is larger than GM's $61 Billions！ This is ridiculous since GM sold 47 times more cars than NIO, how can NIO's capitalization larger than GM's. Of course, TSLA's capitalization at $607B is even more ridiculous as it's 10 times that of GM while selling only about 1/5 of GM sold in number of cars.
8. Competitions in the EV market is going to be fierce in the future. CNN posted a chart that projects biggest EV makers and their volume of productions by 2025 as follow. NIO is not on the list and TSLA only ranks 4th.
过去一去年，由TSLA带动投资人对电动汽车股票的不加选择地注入了狂热，使所有大小的电动汽车股票都升到了极端高的估值水平。人们可以而且仍然可以看到这类股票的泡沫破裂。果然，过去一个月XPEV的股价下降了39％，而LI，SOLO，NIU和NIO分别下降了36％，36％，47％，23％和22％。这里的重点是蔚来NIO。蔚来的估值被推得极高，当您购买NIO时，您付出了非常高的价格，希望将来公司会发展完美的事事顺利。当现在的股价已反映了多年后才达到的发展时，您肯定不会得到好的回报。尽管NIO在这些股票中跌幅最小，但是基于以下统计数据，NIO的当前估值不可能持续下去，股票再跌的可能性大。
从技术上讲，蔚来汽车从最高价57.20美元回落。它在39美元处获得支撑，目前在50日移动均线39美元支撑位和20日移动均线47美元阻力位之间交易。因为仍高于50天移动平均线，总体趋势仍看涨。要关注的水平是39美元，一旦跌穿该水平将确认看跌的头肩顶形态，趋势就会转为下跌。
对NIO负面的统计：
1. 今年到目前为止，蔚来汽车的股价上涨了1624％，而电动汽车的龙头TSLA仅上涨了721％（这已经是惊人的增长）。标普500指数今年仅上涨了15％。
2. NIO还没有盈利，因此没有市盈率，而S＆P500的2021年前瞻市盈率仅为24（这已经远远高于10年平均值15和5年平均值18）。相比之下， TSLA和GM的前瞻PE只分别为163和7。
3. NIO的价格销售比是34，而TSLA是21。美国最大的汽车公司是通用汽车，其销售价格只有0.52！对于此比率，低于5才是健康的。
4. NIO的价格对账面价值比率是44，而TSLA和GM分别是36和1.37。对于此比率，低于5才是健康的。
5.现在NIO的股价约为45美元，但分析师的共识目标价仅为38美元。
6.今年截至目前，蔚来汽车仅售出14169辆汽车，而同期TSLA售出139300辆，通用汽车则售出665192辆。
7. NIO的资本总额已达到650亿美元，大于GM的610亿美元！这是荒谬的，因为GM的汽车销量是NIO的47倍，NIO的资本总额又怎能超过GM的呢。当然，TSLA的市值$ 607B更加荒谬，因为它是GM的10倍，而汽车销量仅为GM的1/5。
8.未来电动汽车市场的竞争将会很激烈。 CNN发布了一张图表，预测2025年最大的电动汽车制造商及它们的产量。 NIO不在列表中，TSLA也仅排名第四。
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