2021 Predictions 2021年预测

A lot of people, analysts, economists, traders, experts and alike make predictions at the end of the year for next year. But knowing that most of the predictions are usually not becoming true according to past history, I am boldly making my own predictions also since at the worst I might just be as bad as most predictors and the best case is if I am lucky and beat other predictors and I will earn my bragging right.  Of course, my predictions are not going to be without logics and reasons. So here are my predictions for 2021:

1. Bitcoin price will reach $100000 because:

a. Bitcoin has now recognized by billionaires, hedge funds, investment funds and corporations as an investment asset and they have just begun to buy Bitcoin. If each of them just allocate 1% of their assets towards Bitcoin, Bitcoin price will go through the roof. 

b. Retail investors are still licking their wounds since the 2017 Bitcoin crash. Many of them are still worry of the 2017 crash will happen again and they have refrain from investing in Bitcoin so far. But as the institutions bidding price higher and higher, retail investors can't fight their greed and eventually jump in. This will further fuel Bitcoin price higher. 

c.  Bitcoin price appreciated 2600% in 2017 and this year since March low, Bitcoin has moved about 646% higher. Knowing Bitcoin price can move fast and big and it only need to go up 245% from 29000 to get to 100000, the 100000 price target may be too conservative!

2. The stock market will have big correction in the new year because:

a. 9 out of 12 (75%) investment banks are bullish on stocks for 2021.  Their average price target for the S&P 500 is 4192 in 2021, about 12.32% from today's 3732. Experience told me that when most of the analysts are bullish, one need to be a contrarian. 

b. Investors with a lot of stock gains and hold through 2020 in order to avoid capital gain tax will sell in the new year.

c. S&P 500 forward PE is 24 and the historic average range is between 15 and 18. Market is overvalued.

d.  Forward PE for big tech stocks AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT,  FB and NVDA  are too high Vs their earning growth rate for next year.  PE and earning growth rate should be about the same for fair value. It is overvalue if PE is much higher than earning growth rate.

Stock        Forward PE    2021 EPS Growth %

AAPL       31                   9.27

AMZN     72                   30.10

GOOG     28                   18.20

MSFT      30                   10.49

FB           26                   12.21

NVDA    44                    22.05

3. Many stocks which have moved multi-hundred percent during 2020 will get kill in 2021 because :

These high flyers have been driven higher only by hype and investors euphoric sentiment, they have ran far ahead of their fundamentals. Since they are priced for perfection, they cannot afford to have anything wrong. Things that can go wrong are earnings are not as good as expected, increased competition, worsening pandemic , worsening economy,  Global political turmoil, big correction in the stock market, change in fed policy, investor sentiment change...Etc.  The following is a lists of these stocks and their gains in 2020 and forward PE: 

NIO +1103%, no earnings, QS+893% , no earnings, FVRR +774%, 260 PE, TSLA +730%, 181 PE, JMIA +532%. no earnings, ZM +419%, 118 PE,  FSLY +350%, no earnings.

许多人，分析师，经济学家，交易员，专家等在年底都会对明年做预测。但是，根据过去的历史，我知道大多数预测通常不会成为现实，因此我大胆地也做出自己的预测，因为在最坏的情况下，我可能会像大多数预测者一样糟糕，而最好的情况是，如果我运气好并击败了其他预测者，我将获得自我吹捧一番的权利。当然，我的预测不会没有逻辑和理由。以下是我对2021年的预测：

1.比特币价格将达到$ 100000，因为：

a。比特币现在已经被亿万富豪，对冲基金，投资基金和企业认可为一种投资资产，他们刚刚开始购买比特币。如果他们每个人仅将其资产的1％分配到比特币，那么比特币的价格将飙升到很高。

b。自2019年比特币崩盘以来，散户投资者仍在舔伤口。他们中的许多人仍然对2017年的崩盘会再次发生而感到恐惧，到目前为止，他们一直还不敢投资比特币。但是，随着机构争相购买导致价格越来越高，散户投资者将无法抗拒心中的贪念并最终加入进来。这将进一步推动比特币价格上涨。

C。比特币价格在2017年升值2600％，今年自3月低点以来，比特币已经上涨了约646％。知道比特币的价格可以飞快上升而且涨幅又大，动辄上升几百%，它只需要从现在的约29000上涨245％便到100000，这是很容易的事情。看来100000的价格目标可能是太保守了！

2.由于以下原因，股市将在新的一年中大幅回调：

a。 12家投资银行中有9家（75％）对2021年股票持乐观态度。标准普尔500指数的平均价格目标是4192，相当于从今天的3732 上涨12.32％。经验告诉我，当大多数分析师都看涨时，我们需要成为一个逆势者。

b。 拥有大量股票收益而为了避免资本利得税而持股过年的投资者将在新的一年出售股票。

c。标普500的前瞻PE为24，历史平均水平在15到18之间。市场价值被高估了。

d。大型科技股(AAPL，AMZN，GOOG，MSFT，FB和NVDA) 的前瞻市盈率相对于明年的盈利增长率距离大。市盈率和收益增长率应大致相同股价才算合理 。如果PE远远高于盈利增长率，则股价过高。

股票            前瞻PE     2021年EPS增长率% 

 AAPL          31             9.27

 AMZN        72             30.10

 GOOG        28             18.20

 MSFT         30             10.49

 FB              26             12.21

 NVDA       44              22.05

3.许多在2020年期间上涨了百分之几百的股票将在2021年被屠杀，因为：

仅凭炒作和投资者的过度高涨的情绪把这些股票推高，股价远远超出了基本面是危险的。由于它们的价位已经反映了完美的基本面，因此它们不能承担任何出错。可能出错的是收益不如预期，竞争加剧，病毒疫情恶化，经济恶化，国际政治动荡，股市大幅度调整，美联储政策变化，投资者情绪变化等。以下是这些股票在2020年的涨幅及其前瞻PE：

NIO + 1103％，无利润，QS + 893％，无利润，FVRR + 774％，260 前瞻PE，TSLA + 730％，181前瞻PE，JMIA + 532％。无利润，ZM + 419％，118前瞻PE，FSLY + 350％，无利润。