Throughout my career in the stock market, I have experienced market/stock boom and bust so many time and I never believe the hype in EV stocks such as TSLA and NIO will last because they are priced so rediculously against fundamentals. Granted, they are good short term momentum trade, but never a good long term hold. But I have stay away from them to avoid risks and they are not the only places that money can be made.
According to Research Affiliates research article released yesterday, at the current $608 Billion capitalization, TSLA is larger than 9 biggest car makers in the world add together. These car makers are: Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Ford, SAIC, Hyundai-Kia, General Motor, Renault Nissan, Volkswagen and Toyota. Just this fact, doesn't need to look further, TSLA stock price is way expensive. TSLA's 734% surge this year is all hype without fundamental supports. Now, TSLA is to join the S&P 500 next Monday (December 22, 2020), experts said this may be the end of TSLA's rise. Another problem is since TSLA is so big (top 10) inside the S&P 500, it's demise will definitely drag the stock market with it since the S&P 500 valuation is also very high.
Exerpts from ZeroHedge article: On Monday TSLA Will Join The S&P 500, Here Is What Happen Next?
Twitter user SqueezeMetrics who lays out why the index inclusion of TSLA may be the worst possible news for Tesla bulls as its "bursts the Tesla" bubble.
How S&p inclusion bursts the Tesla bubble: Ever since June (at $200/share), Tesla stock has been driven by a perpetual motion machine of hype and call option flows -- nothing more. And everyone knows it.
Here's what not everyone knows: When a stock joins the S&P 500, it becomes part of a massive volatility complex, which is a terrifying web of arbitrage and pseudo-arbitrage relationships. Tesla will join the index as a top-ten component of a cap-weighted index. It's big. Its bigness will allow all manner of dispersion, relative value, and market-making traders to begin relying on Tesla's newfound correlation to the index. This will invariably cause arbitrageurs to buy SPX options/volatility and sell TSLA options/volatility to "close the spread."
Since Tesla stock is driven by the returns on call options, it is a slave to "vanna": the relationship between option prices (implied volatility) and delta (stock exposure). In other words, since June, TSLA goes up only when implied volatility (IV) goes up (purple line is IV).When Tesla joins the index, these historic call option flows and the hype machine behind them will hit the big red fire truck that is the S&P, at 500mph. Implied volatility will be unable to rise. Call options will bleed value. New flows will be absorbed by real traders. With the call option hype trade hampered, the stock will have no possibility of further returns -- a deliciously ironic end to the ugliest of Robinhood's many ugly children. And an appropriately ironic fate for Tesla - a victim of its own "success."
Too bearish? We give the final word to investing icon Arnott whose assessment is hardly more optimistic: "When people say, ‘When is the Tesla bubble going to burst?’ I’ve jokingly said on the 22nd of December,” Arnott said. "Nobody knows, but that’s when the index addition argument disappears and that’s when the market starts to search out what the company’s really worth." We will know if Arnott is right in just a few days.
According to Research Affiliates article " Tesla, The Largest Cap Ever To Enter The S&P 500: A Buy Signal Or A Bubble": "Tesla is worth about $1.4 million for every car the company is expected to produce this year and around $500,000 for every car the company has produced over its history. Tesla's valuation, per dollar of revenue, per dollar of profit, or per car produced, is well over 100 times that of the nine largest auto companies. " TSLA sure looks like a big bubble.
在我的整个财务职业生涯中，我经历了很多次市场/股票的繁荣和萧条，我从来都不相信TSLA和NIO等电动汽车的炒作推高股价会持续，因为它们的定价相对于基本面而言是如此的可笑。 当然，它们是很好的短期动量力易，但绝不是长期的持有的好股票。 我一直远离它们以避免风险，而且它们不是唯一可以赚钱的地方。
根据Research Affiliates昨日发表的研究文章，按目前的6,080亿美元市值，TSLA的规模超过全球9家最大的汽车制造商的总和。这些汽车制造商是：菲亚特克莱斯勒，本田，福特，上汽，现代起亚，通用，雷诺日产，大众汽车和丰田。正是这个事实，不需要进一步研究，TSLA股票价格非常离谱。 TSLA今年的734％涨幅都是在没有基本支撑的情况下被大肆炒作所推高的。现在，TSLA将在下周一（2020年12月22日）加入标准普尔500指数，专家表示这可能是TSLA崛起的终结。另一个问题是，由于TSLA在标准普尔500指数中如此之大（前10名），它的消亡肯定会拖累股市，因为标准普尔500的估值也很高。
以下是ZeroHedge文章“周一TSLA将加入标准普尔500指数，接下来会发生什么？” 的摘记：
Twitter用户SqueezeMetrics阐明了为什么将TSLA纳入指数可能是特斯拉多头最糟糕的消息，因为它“刺破了特斯拉”泡沫。
标准普尔的加入如何刺破特斯拉泡沫：自6月以来（每股200美元），特斯拉股价一直受到炒作和看涨期权流动的永久运动机器的推动-仅此而已。每个人都知道的。
不是所有人都知道的是：当股票加入标准普尔500指数时，它就成为庞大的波动性综合体的一部分，这是套利和伪套利关系的恐怖网。特斯拉将作为上限加权指数的前十名加入该指数。好大。它的庞大性将使各种分散，相对价值和做市商开始依赖特斯拉新发现的与该指数的相关性。这将不可避免地导致套利者购买SPX期权/波动率并出售TSLA期权/波动率以“弥合价差”。
由于特斯拉股票受看涨期权收益的驱动，因此它是“虚假”的奴隶：期权价格（隐含波动率）与差额Delta（股票参与）之间的关系。换句话说，自6月以来，仅当隐含波动率（IV）上升（紫色线为IV）时，TSLA才会上升。当TSLA加入标准普尔时，这些看涨期权流量及背后的炒作机器就像红色的救火车以时速500英里撞向标准普尔。隐含波动率将无法上升。认购期权将流失价值。真正的交易者将吸收新的资金流。由于看涨期权的炒作交易受阻，该股票将没有进一步回报的可能-这是对最丑陋的罗宾汉Robin hood平台丑陋孩子们的一个讽刺的结尾。对于特斯拉来说，这是一个具有讽刺意味的命运，它本身就是“成功”的受害者。
太看跌了吗？我们将最终决定权交给投资偶像阿诺特Rob Arnolt，他的评估几乎也同样不乐观：“当人们说，'特斯拉泡沫何时破裂？'我开玩笑说12月22日，”阿诺特说。但是当指数加入的论据消失，那是市场开始寻找公司真正价值的时候。”我们将在短短几天内知道Arnott是否正确。
根据研究联盟Research Affliates 的文章: “特斯拉，有史以来最大的市值进入标准普尔500指数：买入信号还是泡沫”：“（基于特斯拉的市值）以特斯拉今年公司预计产量来算，每辆汽车价值约140万美元，以特斯拉总历史产量来算，每辆汽车价值约500,000美元。特斯拉的估值，每美元的营业额，每美元的利润或每辆生产的汽车的估值，都是9家最大的汽车公司的100倍以上。“看来TSLA是个大泡沫。
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