Why Bitcoin Can Go Above $50000 Next Year Easily为什么比特币明年可以轻松升至$ 50000以上

Bitcoin is a hot commodity lately for the following reasons:

1. Bitcoin is a hedge against financial crisis and inflation

2. Money managers begin to accept it as a new form of investment asset

3. It is a strong competitor to gold, so money likely come out of gold into Bitcoin

4. It is increasingly wide adaptation worldwide

5. limited amount of Bitcoin availability and unreplenishable making it a good storage of value.

6. Bitcoin's market cap is only around $350 billions, it has a lot of room to expand

Lately, big investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Jack Dorsey, Michael Saylor,  Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas among others have all put a portion of their vast wealth in Bitcoin. PayPal with over 300 millions accounts has started crypto currency trading services in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Lite Coin. Square with over 30 million accounts allows its customer to trade Bitcoin and it has been purchasing Bitcoin itself.  Enterprise software company Microstrategy Inc has accumulated 40824 Bitcoins as corporate treasury reserve. All the above recent developments have raised tremendous interest in Bitcoin and pushed Bitcoin to the brink of breaking above the psychological price celling of $20000. 

While breaking above the $20000 level is a high probability event, how high can it go next year is on everybody's mind.  Followings are some of the forecasts:  Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of CitiFXTechnicals, $318000,  Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital, $60000, Tom Lee of Fundstrat, $60000, and BTIG strategists said Bitcoin should reach $50000 by the end of 2021.

Are the above estimates too high? Not really. Let's revisit how Bitcoin has been performing in the past: From December 2016 low of $721 to December 2017 high of 19666, the 1 year return was 2600%. From December 22, 2018's $3160 to June 29, 2019, the half year return was 340%. The latest move was from November 30, 2019's 6515 to December 1, 2020's $19918, the 1 year return was 200%. Base on these big percentage moves in the past, Bitcoin more than doubling in a year can be easy especially when bullish sentiment runs rampant. Besides, in the recent U.S. stock market, investors craziness to ignore the outrageously high valuations and poured into big high-tech,   electric vehicles and work at home stocks has not yet occurred in Bitcoin trading. I bet you, this will happen soon. Bitcoin is an investment product of the modern era. Big  investors and institutions have now begun to participate, and there will be an influx of retail investors soon. Although retail investors still don't understand what Bitcoin is all about, once they see that this investment asset has been rising non-stop, the idea of "fear of missing out" will cause them to swarm into buying and drive Bitcoin to rise wildly.

Following are some latest news on Bitcoin for your reference. For more Bitcoin blogs, please refer to Bitcoin Breakout Imminent https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/12/bitcoin-breakout-imminent.html and  Bitcoin Is Hot, Here Is All You Need To Know https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/preview/5935202388512489961/5894590197771801508:

1. Barron's interview with Niall Ferguson: 

Nial Ferguson, 56, is one of the world's leading historians, prolific author, and creator of the TV series, The Ascent of Money, which won an International Emmy Award. 

In a new edition of my book, The Ascent of Money, two years ago, I observed that if all the millionaires in the world collectively decided to hold 0.2% of their assets in Bitcoin, the Bitcoin price would be $15,000, which it reached this year. If it was 1%, then the price would be $75,000 per Bitcoin. So, as people adopt this as a new form of asset that has a respectable place in a diversified portfolio, there is still quite a bit of upside. 

2. Paul Tudor Jones 's perspective:

Paul Tudor Jones II ( 66) is an American billionaire hedge fund manager, conservationist and philanthropist. In 1980, he founded his hedge fund, Tudor Investment Corporation, an asset management firm headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut. He was famous in his success in Futures trading and became even more famous after he predicted the crash of 1987 stock market and profited from it.

In May 2020, Paul Tudor Jones wrote that bitcoin was a great inflation hedge and revealed that he put about 2% of his portfolio in the cryptocurrency. Jones later stated that he sees massive upside in bitcoin. Last Thursday during his interview with Yahoo Finance he said "with a market cap of $500 billion, it's the wrong market cap in a world where you've got $90 trillion worth of equity market cap, and God knows how many trillions of fiat currency, etc. So, it's the wrong market cap, for instance, relative to gold, which is $8 or $9 trillion," he added. "Bitcoin reminds me so much of the internet stocks of 1999 because the internet was in its infancy. No one knew how to value it because of the world of possibilities that lay ahead ." Bitcoin's current market cap is approximately $350 billion.

3. CoinDesk article:

 "In a research note produced for clients, seen by CoinDesk, Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, co-head of the portfolio strategy team at Bernstein Research, said the firm had previously ruled out bitcoin as an investment asset back inJanuary of 2018, soon after bitcoin had hit its all-time high close to $20,000. But post-pandemic changes to the policy environment, debt levels and diversification options for investors mean the asset manger now has “to admit [bitcoin] does” have  a role in asset allocation, at least over the long term.

4. Microstategy Inc  (MSTR), provider of enterprise analytics software and services worldwide last week purchased 2,574 bitcoins for $50.0 million in cash bringing the business intelligence company's treasury holdings to approximately 40,824 bitcoins. MicroStrategy first bought $250 million in bitcoin (BTC, +0.34%) (BTC) on Aug. 11. followed by an additional $175 million worth of BTC one month later. CEO Michael Saylor said the latest purchase is part of MicroStrategy's treasury reserve policy of eschewing inflation-prone cash for bitcoin. The 55 year-old executive heralds bitcoin as the "most rational" vessel for value storage anywhere in the world.

5. CNBC report :

Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital, thinks this comeback rally is only just getting started. He sees bitcoin rising to $60,000 by next year. Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of CitiFXTechnicals, said the charts signaled that bitcoin could reach $318,000 by December 2021, in a report meant for Citibank’s institutional clients and obtained by CNBC.

6.  Raoul Pal's Twit:

A former hedge fund manager who retired at 36, Raoul Pal is a co-founder of Real Vision, a financial media company offering in-depth video interviews and research publications from the world's best investors. 

He said after Stanley Druckenmiller purchased bitcoin: "The significance of the worlds greatest and most respected money manager- Stan Druckenmiller saying just now that he is long bitcoin can not be overstated. That has removed every obstacle for any hedge fund or endowment to invest.

比特币最近成为热门商品，原因如下：

 1.比特币可用作金融危机及通胀的对冲

 2.资金经理开始接受它作为一种新的投资资产形式

 3. 它是黄金的强劲对手，资金将从黄金出来进入比特币

 

 4. 比特币在全世界应用范围越来越广

 5.有限的比特币数量和不可补充性使其成为良好的价值存储。

 6.比特币的市值只有3500亿美元左右，还有很大的扩大空间。

 最近，诸如斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller），保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones），杰克·多尔西（Jack Dorsey），迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor），墨西哥亿万富翁里卡多·萨利纳斯（Ricardo Salinas）等大投资者都将部分巨额财富投入了比特币。 PayPal拥有超过3亿个帐户，已启动了加密货币包括比特币（Bitcoin)，以太坊（Etherem)，比特币现金(Bitcoin Cash)和精简币(lite Coin) 的交易服务。 Square拥有超过3000万个帐户，其客户可以交易比特币，并且它自己一直在购买比特币。企业软件公司Microstrategy Inc已累积了40824个比特币作为公司库存储备。以上所有最近的发展都引起了人们对比特币的极大兴趣，并将比特币推向了突破20000美元重要心理价位的边缘。

虽然突破$ 20000的水平已是一个高概率事件，但明年它能升到多少却在每个人的脑海中。以下是一些预测：CitiFXTechnicals全球负责人汤姆·菲茨帕特里克（Tom Fitzpatrick），318000美元，投资公司Galaxy Digital首席执行官迈克·诺沃格拉茨（Mike Novogratz），60000美元，Fundstrat的汤姆·李（Tom Lee），60000美元，以及BTIG策略师表示，比特币应该在2021年底达到50000美元。 

上面所提到的估计是不是太高？不是的。 让我们回顾一下比特币过去的表现：从2016年12月的低点721美元到2017年12月的高点19666美元，一年上涨2600％。从2018年12月22日的3160美元到2019年6月29日的13880美元，半年上涨340％。最近的上涨是从2019年11月30日的6515美元到2020年12月1日的19918美元，一年上涨200％。基于过去的这些大比例变化，比特币在一年内翻一番以上是很容易的事情，尤其是当看涨情绪高涨时。在最近的美国股票市场上投资人无视离谱的高估值而大举涌入大型高科技，电动汽车和居家股票的疯狂行为尚未在比特币中发生。和您打赌，这很快就会发生了。比特币是摩登时代的投资产品，大户和机构现在已开始介入，随之而来的将是散户涌进。虽然散户还不明白比特币是甚么一回事，但它们一旦看到这个投资资产一直在升，“怕错过”的想法就会导致他们一窝蜂的涌入购买而推动比特币疯狂上升。

以下是有关比特币的一些最新新闻，供您参考。有关更多比特币博文，请参阅“比特币突破在即” https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/12/bitcoin-breakout-imminent.html和“比特币炙手可热，这里有您所需要知道的https:// www. blogger.com/blog/post/edit/preview/5935202388512489961/5894590197771801508

1.巴伦 （Barron）对尼尔·弗格森（Nial Ferguson）的采访： 现年56岁的尼尔·弗格森是世界领先的历史学家之一，是位多产的作家，也是电视连续剧《金钱的上升》的创作者，该电影获得了国际艾美奖。他说：“  两年前，在我的新书《金钱的上升》中，我观察到，如果世界上所有的百万富翁集体决定将其资产的0.2％持有比特币，那么比特币的价格将达到15,000美元。如果是1％，那么每个比特币的价格将为75,000美元。因此，随着人们将它作为一种新的资产形式在多元化的投资组合中占有可观的地位，它仍有很大的上升空间。”

 2. 保罗·都铎·琼斯Paul Tudor Jones的观点： 保罗·都铎·琼斯二世（66岁）是美国亿万富翁对冲基金经理，保护主义者和慈善家。 1980年，他创立了对冲基金Tudor Investment Corporation，这是一家资产管理公司，总部位于康涅狄格州斯坦福德。他以在期货交易中的成功而闻名，并在他预测1987年股市崩盘并从中获利后变得更加著名。 2020年5月，保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）写道比特币是一个很好的通胀对冲工具，并透露他将自己投资组合的2％投入了该加密货币。琼斯认为比特币具有巨大的上涨空间。上周四，在接受Yahoo Finance采访时，他说：“市值达到5000亿美元是一个错误的市值。这个世界拥有90万亿美元的股票市值，而上帝才知道多少万亿法定货币，因此，这是错误的市值，例如相对于黄金的8或9万亿美元。” “比特币让我想起了1999年的很多互联网股票，因为互联网还处于起步阶段。由于存在着无限的可能性，因此没人知道如何对其进行估值。” 比特币目前的市值约为3500亿美元。

 3. CoinDesk文章： “在为客户制作的研究报告中，Bernstein Research投资组合战略团队的联合负责人Inigo Fraser-Jenkins表示，随着比特币曾创下接近20,000美元的历史新高后，该公司曾在2018年1月排除比特币作为投资资产，但Covid-19大流行后政策环境，债务水平和投资者多样化选择的变化意味着资产管理人现在必须“承认[比特币]确实”在资产配置中发挥作用。

 4.全球企业分析软件和服务提供商Microstategy Inc（MSTR）上周以5,000万美元的现金购买了2,574枚比特币，使该商业情报公司的库存资产增至约40,824枚比特币。 MicroStrategy于8月11日首次购买了2.5亿美元的比特币，一个月后又购买了价值1.75亿美元的比特币。首席执行官迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）表示，此次最新购买是MicroStrategy的国库储备政策的一部分，该政策避免使用容易产生通货膨胀的现金来购买比特币。这位现年55岁的高管将比特币视为全球任何地方进行价值存储的“最合理”的工具。

 5. CNBC报告： 投资公司银河数码（Galaxy Digital）的首席执行官Mike Novogratz认为，这次的反弹才刚刚开始。他预计到明年比特币将升至60,000美元。 CitiFXTechnicals的全球负责人汤姆·菲茨帕特里克（Tom Fitzpatrick）表示，图表表明，到2021年12月，比特币的价格可能达到31.8万美元。

 6.拉乌尔·帕尔（ Raoul Pal）的推文： Raoul Pal是一名前对冲基金经理，36岁，他是Real Vision的共同创始人。RealVision是一家金融媒体公司，提供来自全球最佳投资者的深入视频采访和研究出版物。 他在斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）购买比特币后说：“世界上最伟大，最受尊敬的资金经理斯坦·德鲁肯米勒（Stan Druckenmiller）买比特币的举动的重要性不能轻视。因为这消除了所有对冲基金或捐赠基金购买比特币的障碍。