It's A Bad Day In The Stock Market 今天是股市糟糕的一天

The stock market had a bad day today with Dow -603.41 (-2.09%), S&P 500-58.14 (-1.77%) and
Nasdaq Composite -148 (-1.59%). This is the worst one day drop since August 2019. Technically, Dow is now below its 50 day moving average, S&P 500 touching its50 day moving average while the Nasdaq Composite is below its 20 day moving average.  Technical sell signals for the S&P 500 are CCI has already broken below 0 line and the -DI has crossed above +DI on the Direction Indicator. Market's short term trend is now down. Since the S&P 500 is only about little over 3% down from the top 3338 level, it's too small of a correction for an over extended market and more downside action is likely. The S&P 500 may need to go down to 200 day moving average at 3011 for a 9.8% correction from the top.

Fundamentally, weak oil (USO), weak commodity prices (DBC), 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) trending lower, gold (GLD) trending higher and rising volatility ($VIX) are indications for slow economy and weak stock market to come.

This is how varies market are doing:

This is how various sectors are doing:

This is how the S&P 500 stocks are doing:

今日股市表现不佳，道琼斯指数-603.41（-2.09％），标准普尔500-58.14（-1.77％）和
纳斯达克综合指数-148（-1.59％）。这是自2019年8月以来最糟糕的一天跌幅。从技术上讲，道琼斯指数现在低于其50天移动均线，标准普尔500指数碰到其50天移动均线，而纳斯达克综合指数则低于其20天移动均线。 S＆P 500的技术卖出信号有CCI已跌破0线及方向指示的-DI向上交叉+ DI。市场的短期趋势现在看跌。由于标准普尔500指数仅较3338的最高水平下跌约3％多一点，因此对于过度扩张的市场而言，它的校正幅度太小，所以很可能会有更多下行行动。标普500指数可能会跌至3011的200天移动平均线，大约从高位回落9.8％才是较合理的跌幅。

从基本面上看来，疲软的油价（USO），疲软的大宗商品价格（DBC），十年期国债收益率（$ TNX）趋于下降，黄金（GLD）趋于上升，波动指数$ VIX）攀升都是造成将来经济放缓和股市疲弱的启示。

这是各种市场的表现：

这是各大行业的表现：

这是S&P 500股票的表现：

State Of The Wuhan Coronavirus And Reactions 武汉冠状病毒的现状及反应

The Wuhan coronavirus has now spread to at least 18 other countries and has dampened sentiment over global economic growth.  Confirmed cases in China rise to 9,925 and  213 dead as of 12Noon Pacific Time January 31, 2020.  Research suggests 75,800 infected in Wuhan. The virus has now spread to 18 countries.  People have been focus on WuHan city and HuBei province development, but virus has spread to all the provinces inside China. The provinces and cities with the highest population are jumping on confirmed cases and should be worried. As of 12Noon Pacific Time January 31,2020, provinces and city with the higest confirmed cases besides HuBei and WuHan are ZheJiang 538 cases, GuangDong 436 cases, HeNan 352 cases, HuNan 332 cases, JiangXi 240 cases, AnHui 237 cases and the city of ChongQing 211 cases.  These are the places with potential problems. Aslo the 2nd most populated country India has 1,000 suspected virus cases 'under observation'.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency on Yesterday but did not recommend restrictions on international trade and travel.   However, the State Department has advised against travel to China, and has permitted nonemergency employees at its diplomatic offices there to leave China. In addition the Trump administration on Friday declared the coronavirus a public health emergency in the United States, and announced that people who pose a risk of transmitting the disease will temporarily be suspended from entering the U.S. American and Delta announced they are suspending service to mainland China. There are more than 43 airlines cancel flights to China. North Korea and Singapore closes borders to Chinese travelers. Iran cancels flights to and from China.

Goldman Sachs analyst anticipates a 0.4 percentage point slowdown of U.S. annualized growth in the first quarter, while JP Morgan analyst said slow down by 0.3%. But how can one put a fix number of economic damage to a situration that is still out of control especially at least 70% of China's economy is to stay shut?Look out, the Wuhan coronavirus may have some more bad news to come.

武汉冠状病毒目前已经传播到至少18个其他国家，并削弱了人们对全球经济增长的信心。截至2020年1月31日太平洋时间中午12点，中国确诊病例上升到9,925，死亡人数为213。有研究推测武汉会有75,800感染者。人们一直都只关注着武汉市和湖北省的病例发展，但是病毒已经蔓延到中国境内的所有省份。人口最多的省市确诊病例正在迅速增加也应该令人担忧。截至2020年1月31日太平洋时间中午12时，除湖北省和武汉市外，其他确诊病例最多的省市为浙江538例，广东436例，河南352例，湖南332例，江西240例，安徽237例，重庆211例。这些都是有潜在问题的地方。另外人口第二多的国家印度已有1,000宗疑似病毒病例并“正在受监察”中。

世界卫生组织（WHO）昨天宣布全球健康紧急情况，但不建议限制国际贸易和旅行。但是，美国国务院建议不要前往中国，并允许外交机构的非紧急雇员离开中国。此外，特朗普政府周五宣布将冠状病毒列为美国的公共卫生紧急事件，并宣布有可能传播这种疾病的人将被暂时禁止进入美国。美国航空及达美航空宣布将暂停中国大陆的服务。有超过43家航空公司取消飞往中国的航班。朝鲜和新加坡对中国游客不开放边境。伊朗取消了往返中国的航班。

高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师预计第一季度美国年化增速将下降0.4个百分点，而摩根大通（JP Morgan）分析师则表示会放缓0.3％。但是，如何能够对仍然无法控制的情况对经济损失作定量评估呢，尤其是中国至少70％的经济正在停顿之中。当心，武汉冠状病毒可能还会带来更多的坏消息。

Why The Stock Market Turn Around Today 为什么今天股票市场转上

The Dow Jones Industrial turned around an over 200 point slide to a 125 point rally today. One of the reason given is that even though the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency but did not recommend restrictions on international trade and travel. Another reason may be because that many people think that the Wuhan coronavirus crisis is temporary.  The 3rd reason is earnings related. Both MSFT and TSLA reported good earnings and AMZN also expected to be good which provide support. The 4th reason is technical, the Dow hit it's 50 day moving average support at 28431 and bounced off.

Should we trust WHO's decision when only last week it called the outbreak a local crisis? The danger of WHO's action and the virus crisis is only temporary thinking is that this time it may be different since the spread of the virus has not been contained yet and no body know how far will it go. As for earnings, this is probably the last time stock prices appreciate as earning season is drawing close to an end and slowing economy is the next thing to worry about.

The stock market may rally early tomorrow due to strong AMZN earnings but may end weak due to investor selling stock ahead of the weekend. It is prudent not to chase stocks at this point when there's a crisis going on; economic slow down may be around the corner; and the stock market rally is at euphoric and unsustainable stage.

Latest Wuhan coronavirus update:

今天道琼斯工业平均指数从下跌200多点反转至上涨125点作收。原因之一是，尽管世界卫生组织（WHO）已宣布了武汉疫情为全球卫生紧急情况，但并未建议限制国际贸易和旅行。另一个原因可能是因为许多人认为武汉冠状病毒危机是暂时的。第三个原因与收益有关。 MSFT和TSLA均报出好财报，而AMZN财报也有望好于预期对股市提供支持。第四个原因是技术因素，道琼斯工业平均指数达到其50天移动平均支撑位28431而反弹。

仅在上周，世卫组织将疫情称为局部危机，而今天则升级为全球卫生紧急情况，我们是否应该相信世卫组织的决定？世卫组织采取的行动和病毒危机只是暂时的想法是危险的，这次情况可能有所不同因为目前尚未能遏制病毒的传播，而且没有人知道它会怎样发展。至于财报，这可能是股票价格最后一次升值，因为财报季节已临近尾声，而经济放缓是接下来要担心的事情。

由于AMZN的强劲收益，股市可能会在明天开始阶段上升，但由于投资者在周末之前或会抛售股票避险而可能导致股市收弱。因为武汉疫情危机仍在持续而或会导致经济放缓，加上股市正处于极度乐观和不可持续的阶段，现在谨慎的做法不要追逐股票。

武汉疫情最新情况：

These Statistics Are Worrisome 这些统计数据令人担忧

As of 8AM Pacific Time today, Wuhan Coronavirus death toll climbs to 171 and 8235 cases confirmed worldwide.

What is worrisome is when I look at the confirmed cases in big provinces and major cities with huge population besides Hubei and Wuhan. Following is a list of the present situations: (Virus has spread to all 34 provinces, the list only lists number of cases above 100)

Provinces/Cities        Population                Confirmed Cases

Zhejiang                    54,426,891               428
GuangDong              113,460,000              354
Henan                         94,000,000              278
Hunan                         67,000,000              277
Anhui                          70,270,000              200
ChongQing (City)        8,518,000              182
Jiangxi                        44,567,475              162
ShanDong                   95,793,000              158
SiChuan                      81,000,000              142
JiangSu                       78,659,903              129
Beijing (City)              21,540,000              114
ShangHai (City)          24,240,000              112
FuJian                         38,560,000              101


If we look at the virus progress curve by Bianco Research below, there were only 43 confirmed cases on January 16, 2020 in HuBei province  and has ballooned to 4903 as of today.  The worry is how many cases spread to in the above areas in two weeks with the spreading speed of HuBei as reference?    

截至今天太平洋时间上午8点，武汉冠状病毒全世界死亡人数上升至171和8235确诊病例。

令人担忧的是，当我查看除湖北和武汉之外的人口大省和大城市的确诊病例时，以下是当前情况的列表：（病毒已蔓延到所有34个省，下列列表仅列出了100例以上的病例的省市）

省/市                             人口                   确诊病例

浙江                               54,426,891        428
广东                              113,460,000       354
河南                               94,000,000        278
湖南                               67,000,000        277
安徽                               70,270,000        200
重庆（市）                     8,518,000        182
江西                               44,567,475        162
山东                               95,793,000        158
四川                               81,000,000        142
江苏                               78,659,903        129
北京（市）                   21,540,000        114
上海（市）                   24,240,000        112
福建                               38,560,000        101


下面Bianco Research的病毒进展曲线显示湖北确诊的病例在2020年1月16日时只有43例，到今天已激增至4903例。担心的是，以湖北的扩散速度作参考，两周后上述地区会扩散到多少病例？

Stock Market Is Coming Down, What To Buy 股市下跌，买什么

After selling off about 2.7% on last Friday and this Monday, at today's high the S&P500 had  recovered about 60% of the losses. Dip buying, betting on good earnings and hoping Federal Reserve may say some good words are reasons for the bounce. However, investors rushed to sell before the market close today after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rate unchanged and no change on outlook. Of course, mixed corporate earning reports also played a part in the selling. This week's better than expected earnings are AAPL, MCD, MSFT, MXIM, DOW, MSFT and TSLA, while worse than expected earnings are AMD, T, BA, XLNX, FB, MMM, PFE and SBUX. Stocks with good earnings but very overbought are AAPL, TSLA and MSFT. Even though these stocks are up after earnings but are very ripe for profit taking.

Now that many influential earnings are already out and the Fed has had its meeting, they are no longer the supports for the market. The key focus will be back to the rapidly worsening Wuhan Coronavirus situation. The latest death toll climbs to 170 and 7,783 cases confirmed worldwide as of
6PM Pacific Time.

Futures market  heat map at 7:41 PM Pacific Time:

Technically, the S&P 500 chart already indicates that the bounce is over and the next leg down has started. A 4% drop from all time high is a drop to 50 day moving average at 3206. A drop to 200 day moving average 3008 is 9.9% drop from all time high. A 9.9% drop is not impossible since during the SARS period, the S&P 500 dropped 17.5%.

The 4 ETFs likely move up big are Ultra VIX Short Term Future 1.5X： UVXY,  Semiconductor Bear 3X ：SOXS, Short QQQ 3X： SQQQ and Small Cap Bear 3X：TZA.

在上周五和本周一标准普尔50下跌 约2.7％后，在今天的高点，标准普尔500收复了大约60％的损失。逢低买入，押注好盈利并希望美联储可能会说一些好话都是反弹的原因。然而，在美联储决定维持利率及前景不变之后，投资者在今天收盘前抛售股票。当然，好坏掺半的企业财报也是抛售的原因。本周好于预期的财报是AAPL，MCD，MSFT，MXIM，DOW，MSFT和TSLA，而差于预期的财报是AMD，T，BA，XLNX，FB，MMM，PFE和SBUX。财报好但超买严重的股票有AAPL，TSLA和MSFT。即使这些股票在财报后上涨，但获利了结的条件已经成熟。

既然许多有影响力的财报已经报出，而且美联储也召开了会议，那么这两个因素将不再是市场的支撑。重点将放在迅速恶化的武汉冠状病毒形势上。截至太平洋时间下午6点，全球最新死亡人数上升至170和7,783确诊病例。

太平洋时间下午7:41的期货市场热图：

从技术上讲，标准普尔500指数显示反弹已经结束，下一轮下跌已经开始。 从历史最高点下跌4％就是跌至50日移动均线3206。跌至200天移动平均线3008则是从历史最高点回落9.9％。 由于在SARS期间，标普500指数下跌了17.5％，因此这次下跌9.9％也不过份。

在市场下跌时下面4种ETF大幅上涨的机会大，它们分别是VIX短期期货1.5倍：UVXY，半导体3倍看跌：SOXS，QQQ 3倍看跌：SQQQ和小盘股3倍看跌：TZA。

Black Swan Event For Financial Markets Has Just Happened 金融市场的黑天鹅事件刚刚发生

"About 5 million residents left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday, as health officials ­warned the virus’ ­ability to spread was ­getting ­stronger. There were about 9 million people remaining in the city after the lockdown, Zhou told a press conference. Of the 2,700 people currently under observation in the city, about 1,000 were likely to be confirmed cases. As of Sunday, Wuhan had 533 new confirmed cases." ---South China Morning Post

The latest case distribution worldwide are shown in the following graphs:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and former Wall Street trader, wrote about the Black Swan concept in his 2001 book Fooled by Randomness which concerned financial events.  In his later book, The Black Swan, he defines three attributes that are common to all black swan events:

The event is unpredictable (to the observer)
The event has widespread ramifications
After the event has occurred, people will assert that it was indeed explainable and predictable (hindsight bias).

The Wuhan Coronavirus sure satisfies the first two criteria listed above since the event was not predicted and the spread of virus is still not contained. The Wuhan Coronavirus is similar to the
2003 SARS out break. The S&P 500 was down 17.3% over a 2 month period when SARS hit.

So it is reasonable to project the Wuhan Coronavirus out break will cause the S&P500 to have a similar sharp correction especially after an one year rise of 25%. A correction down to 200 day moving average at around 3000 level is about 10% down from the 3338 top. If it comes down for a 38% retracement to 2956, it would be a 11.4% drop from the top. For a 50% retracement down to 2839, it would be a 15% drop from the top.

S&P 500 Futures was trading down 33 points （-1%） at 3:33 PM Pacific Time on Sunday.




“武汉市长周贤旺周日透露，由于致命的冠状病毒流行在春节假期期间，约有五百万居民在封锁前离开了武汉。卫生官员警告说，这种病毒的传播能力已越来越强。 封锁武汉之后，大约有900万人留在这座城市。 在该市目前正在观察的2700人中，约有1000例很可能会是确诊病例。 周日，武汉已有533新增确诊病例。” ---《南华早报》

下图显示了全球最新的病例分布：

金融学教授，前华尔街交易员纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）在其2001年的书《愚昧无知》中谈到涉及金融事件黑天鹅的概念。 在他后期的书《黑天鹅》中，他定义了所有黑天鹅事件共有的三个属性：

事件是不可预测的
该事件产生了广泛的影响
事件发生后，人们会断言该事件确实是可以解释和可预测的（事后偏差）。

武汉冠状病毒肯定可以满足上面列出的前两个标准，因为该事件没有被预测到并且病毒的传播仍然没有得到控制。 武汉冠状病毒类似于2003年SARS的爆发。 在SARS爆发后的两个月内，标普500指数下跌了17.3％。

因此，可以合理预期武汉冠状病毒的爆发将使标普500指数出现类似的大幅回调，尤其是在一年上涨25％之后。 如果向下修正至200天移动平均线3000点附近大约是从顶部3338水平要跌10％。 如果跌至2956的38％的回撤线水平，那将是从顶部下跌约11.4％。 至于回落至2839的50％回调线，它将从顶部下跌15％。

周日太平洋时间下午3:33，标普500期货下跌33点（-1％）。

Good Time To Buy UVXY And SQQQ 这是买入UVXY及SQQQ的好时机

Major US stock market indices are reversing from up to down today on the face of strong earnings from Intel (INTC). If the indices close near their lows today, it will signify the beginning of a downside correction. The indices have formed the bearish Intraday Reversal and bearish Engulfing chart patterns. UVXY and SQQQ may be the ETFs to buy for big gain since both have dropped 83% and 66% respectively in the last 1 year. What comes down hard also rallies hard.

There are too many negatives for the market to list, followings are only a few of them:

1. What melt up usually follow by melt down. SPX melted up 17% from October 2019 low to January 2020 high, up 42% from Dec 2018 low to January 2020 high. Stock market's almost non-stop melt up will inevitably usher in melt down, past examples are melt downs in 1987, 2000 and 2008.

2. Economic growth is slowing. The Washington-based IMF forecast in October a global growth rate of 3% for 2019 and of 3.4% for 2020. The IMF has now revised down those forecasts to 2.9% and 3.3%, respectively. The downward revision was mostly due to lower growth in India. For 2021, the Fund has forecast a growth rate of 3.4%. A worse-than-expected 0.3% MoM drop in the Conference Board leading economic index, ending the year with 5 down months in the last six.

3. Leading stock price is over doing it. After stock surging 107% in the past 1 year, Apple (AAPL) 's forward PE is now over 21 but it's consensus projected earning growth this year is -2.6%. Stock price appreciation has been out pacing earning growth by a big margin. When AAPL price comes down to reality, sharp drop in the stock market will ensure.

4. Wuhan virus spread may cause economic slow down in China and the world. Chinese GDP grew at an 11.1% annualized rate in Q1 2003 as SARS was discovered; that figure dipped to 9.1% in Q2 2003. Followings are the latest virus statistics:
。Total number of confirmed cases now 900+, 26 dead.
。China restricts travel for 40+ million people as the death toll surges.
。Two deaths have been reported outside Wuhan.
。Some residents displaying symptoms are being turned away from hospitals.
。Hospitals in Wuhan make urgent pleas for help and supplies.
。Experts believe the virus spread will get worse due to Chinese New Year population flow.

5. Fear is looming underneath.  Although major indices still look calm on the surface, but the CNNMoney.com Fear and Greed index has fallen from 99 to today's 64 in less than 2 weeks and CBOE Put/ Call Ration has jumped from 0.5 to over 1 indicating fear underneath. 10 YearTreasury has been rallying causing yield dropping to 1.69% from 1.95%, this is a sign of capital flight to safe haven.

6. Good news is almost out. The two things that have been helping the recent market melt up are expectation of a truce in trade war between US and China and good Q4 earnings. Now that the phase 1 trade negotiation is over but $360B tariffs are still apply to Chinese goods, and experts don't see much good out of the deal. Major earnings will be out by the next two weeks, sell on news is likely regardless the earnings are good, bad or neutral since stock prices have got to as good as they can go levels .

面对英特尔（INTC）强劲的财报，美国主要的股票市场指数今天却已经从上向下反转。 如果各大市场指数今天收于其低点附近，则表明下行修正已经开始。 各大指数已形成了看跌的当日反转和看跌的吞没图表模式。买入UVXY和SQQQ可能会带来可观的回报，因为它们在过去1年中分别下跌了83％和66％。跌得多则升得也会多。

市场上有太多负面因素要列出了，以下只是其中一些：


股市需要下跌修正的原因：

1.Melt Up后通常会Melt Down。从2019年10月低点到2020年1月高点，SPX上升了17％，而从2018年12月低点到2020年1月高点上涨了42％。股市几乎不间断的上升将不可避免地引发崩溃，过去的例子是1987、2000和2008年的崩溃。

2.经济增长正在放缓。总部位于华盛顿的国际货币基金组织（IMF）于10月预测，2019年全球增长率为3％，2020年为3.4％。国际货币基金组织（IMF）现在已分别将这些预测下调至2.9％和3.3％。向下修正主要是由于印度的增长较低。基金预测2021年的增长率为3.4％。美国经济咨商局领先经济指数环比下降0.3％，坏与预期，在过去的六个月中，该指数下降了5个月。

3.龙头股的股票价格已经上升过份。在过去1年中股价飙升107％之后，苹果（AAPL）的预测市盈率现在已经超过21，但市场普遍预计，今年的收益增长为-2.6％。股价上涨已经大大超过了盈利增长。当AAPL的价格跌向现实水平时，股市也会随之急剧下跌。

4.武汉病毒的传播可能会导致中国乃至世界经济放缓。在2003年SARS病毒发生时，2003年第一季度中国GDP年均增长率为11.1％。该数字在2003年第二季度下降到9.1％。以下是最新的病毒统计数据：
。现已确认的病例总数为900+，死亡26例。
。随着死亡人数激增，中国限制了40+百万人出行。
。武汉以外地区据报有两人死亡。
。一些表现出症状的居民被拒之医院门外。
。武汉市的医院紧急请求帮助和物资。
。专家认为，由于农历新年的人口流动，该病毒的传播将变得更糟。

5.恐惧隐约可见。尽管主要大市指数表面上看起来仍然平静，但CNNMoney.com恐惧与贪婪指数在不到2周的时间内从99跌至今天的64，CBOE看跌期权/看涨期权比率在过去几天已从0.5跃升至1以上，表明存在内在恐惧。 10年期美国国债一直在上涨，导致收益率从1.95％下降至1.69％，这表明资本开始逃往避险天堂。

6.好消息即将过去。助长近期市场上升的两主要件事是对中美之间贸易战停战以及第四季度良好收益的预期。现在，第一阶段贸易谈判已经结束，但是$ 360B关税仍适用于中国商品，专家认为这笔交易不会带来多大好处。主要企业财报将在未来两周内报完，无论收益是好，坏还是中立，股票都可能会被抛售，因为股票价格已经达到了难以再高的水平。

Odd Of A Stock Market Correction is High 美股下跌调整的机会大

For the whole 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have risen
22%, 28% and 25% respectively. It is well known that the stock market has gone up too much and may be ready to correct. The killing of Iran's top general by the US drone last week and today Iran revenged by bombing two US bases inside Iraq have raised possibility of war between the two countries. This may have triggered the long expected stock market correction.

Other factors that are worrying investors are:

1. CNN Money's Fear and Greed index reached nearly 100 （it's highest possible）recently  and today it is at 89, which is an extremely greedy level and is rarely seen. The stock market usually corrects when the Greed and Fear Index reaches 80. According to this indicator, the odd is high for the US stock market to correct.

2.  Q4 earning reporting season begins next week and any disappointment will likely depresses stocks.

3.  US-China phase 1 trade agreement will be signed on January 15th. Sell on news is likely as stock prices have already reflected the good news and investors may begin to worry about the discord of the next phase of negotiations.

4. Crude oil price has moved up over 27% since October 2019, it will move even higher as the conflict between the US and Iran escalates. Rising oil price and slow economic growth may lead to stagflation which is not a good situation for the economy.

5. Unsold shares last year due to tax avoidance may be sold by investors at the beginning of this year to lock in profits.

6. If the Democratic Party nominates a presidential candidate that is perceived to be able to defeat Trump , this may lead to policy changes and is negative for stocks  (Trump is supportive for rising stock markets).

Technically, the next two supports for the S & P 500 are 3200 and then 3135. Falling to the 50-day moving average of 3135 is a 3.8% drop from historical high of 3258. If the important 50-day moving average is broken, there is a chance to test the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Falling to the 100-day moving average support 3042 is a 6.6% drop from all time high, while falling to the 200-day moving average support 2974 is a 8.7% drop. The normal stock market adjustment is between 5 and 10%.

在整个2019年，道琼斯工业平均指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨了22％，28％和25％。众所周知，股市上涨太多而需要修正。上周美国无人机杀死了伊朗的高级将领，今天，伊朗轰炸了伊拉克境内的两个美国基地报复，这增加了两国之间发生战争的可能性。这些事件可能会触发人们长期以来预期的股市修正。

令投资者担忧的其他因素还有：

1. 美国CNN Money的“恐惧与贪婪”指数最近达到近100（最高可能达到的水平高），今天已退到89，这是一个极端贪婪的水平并且极为罕见。当贪婪和恐惧指数达到80时，股市通常会进行修正。这个指标显示美国股市进行修正的可能性很高。

2. 第四季度的收益报告季节将从下周开始，如果财报不令人满意股票会遭到抛售。

3. 中美第一阶段贸易协定将于1月15日签署。由于股票价格已经反映了这个好消息，而投资者可能会开始担心下一阶段谈判的不协调，所以投资者可能会在事后抛售股票。

4. 自2019年10月以来，原油价格已上涨了27％以上，随着美国和伊朗之间的冲突升级，原油价格将进一步上涨。油价上涨和经济增长缓慢可能会导致滞胀，这对经济而言不是个好情况。

5. 由于避税而导致去年未售出的股票可能会在今年年初被投资者出售以锁定利润。

6. 如果民主党提名被认为能够击败特朗普的总统候选人，这可能会导致政策变化而对股市不利（特朗普支持股市上涨）。

技术上标普500的下两个支撑是3200然后是3135。跌至50日均线3135是从历史高位3258下跌3.8%。假如重要的50日均线被击穿则有机会下探100日及200日均线。跌至100日均线支撑3042是6.6%的调整，而跌至200日均线2974支撑则是8.7%。正常的股市调整幅度是5到10%之间。