Stock Market Is Coming Down, What To Buy 股市下跌，买什么

After selling off about 2.7% on last Friday and this Monday, at today's high the S&P500 had  recovered about 60% of the losses. Dip buying, betting on good earnings and hoping Federal Reserve may say some good words are reasons for the bounce. However, investors rushed to sell before the market close today after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rate unchanged and no change on outlook. Of course, mixed corporate earning reports also played a part in the selling. This week's better than expected earnings are AAPL, MCD, MSFT, MXIM, DOW, MSFT and TSLA, while worse than expected earnings are AMD, T, BA, XLNX, FB, MMM, PFE and SBUX. Stocks with good earnings but very overbought are AAPL, TSLA and MSFT. Even though these stocks are up after earnings but are very ripe for profit taking.

Now that many influential earnings are already out and the Fed has had its meeting, they are no longer the supports for the market. The key focus will be back to the rapidly worsening Wuhan Coronavirus situation. The latest death toll climbs to 170 and 7,783 cases confirmed worldwide as of
6PM Pacific Time.

Futures market  heat map at 7:41 PM Pacific Time:

Technically, the S&P 500 chart already indicates that the bounce is over and the next leg down has started. A 4% drop from all time high is a drop to 50 day moving average at 3206. A drop to 200 day moving average 3008 is 9.9% drop from all time high. A 9.9% drop is not impossible since during the SARS period, the S&P 500 dropped 17.5%.

The 4 ETFs likely move up big are Ultra VIX Short Term Future 1.5X： UVXY,  Semiconductor Bear 3X ：SOXS, Short QQQ 3X： SQQQ and Small Cap Bear 3X：TZA.

在上周五和本周一标准普尔50下跌 约2.7％后，在今天的高点，标准普尔500收复了大约60％的损失。逢低买入，押注好盈利并希望美联储可能会说一些好话都是反弹的原因。然而，在美联储决定维持利率及前景不变之后，投资者在今天收盘前抛售股票。当然，好坏掺半的企业财报也是抛售的原因。本周好于预期的财报是AAPL，MCD，MSFT，MXIM，DOW，MSFT和TSLA，而差于预期的财报是AMD，T，BA，XLNX，FB，MMM，PFE和SBUX。财报好但超买严重的股票有AAPL，TSLA和MSFT。即使这些股票在财报后上涨，但获利了结的条件已经成熟。

既然许多有影响力的财报已经报出，而且美联储也召开了会议，那么这两个因素将不再是市场的支撑。重点将放在迅速恶化的武汉冠状病毒形势上。截至太平洋时间下午6点，全球最新死亡人数上升至170和7,783确诊病例。

太平洋时间下午7:41的期货市场热图：

从技术上讲，标准普尔500指数显示反弹已经结束，下一轮下跌已经开始。 从历史最高点下跌4％就是跌至50日移动均线3206。跌至200天移动平均线3008则是从历史最高点回落9.9％。 由于在SARS期间，标普500指数下跌了17.5％，因此这次下跌9.9％也不过份。

在市场下跌时下面4种ETF大幅上涨的机会大，它们分别是VIX短期期货1.5倍：UVXY，半导体3倍看跌：SOXS，QQQ 3倍看跌：SQQQ和小盘股3倍看跌：TZA。