Odd Of A Stock Market Correction is High 美股下跌调整的机会大

For the whole 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have risen
22%, 28% and 25% respectively. It is well known that the stock market has gone up too much and may be ready to correct. The killing of Iran's top general by the US drone last week and today Iran revenged by bombing two US bases inside Iraq have raised possibility of war between the two countries. This may have triggered the long expected stock market correction.

Other factors that are worrying investors are:

1. CNN Money's Fear and Greed index reached nearly 100 （it's highest possible）recently  and today it is at 89, which is an extremely greedy level and is rarely seen. The stock market usually corrects when the Greed and Fear Index reaches 80. According to this indicator, the odd is high for the US stock market to correct.

2.  Q4 earning reporting season begins next week and any disappointment will likely depresses stocks.

3.  US-China phase 1 trade agreement will be signed on January 15th. Sell on news is likely as stock prices have already reflected the good news and investors may begin to worry about the discord of the next phase of negotiations.

4. Crude oil price has moved up over 27% since October 2019, it will move even higher as the conflict between the US and Iran escalates. Rising oil price and slow economic growth may lead to stagflation which is not a good situation for the economy.

5. Unsold shares last year due to tax avoidance may be sold by investors at the beginning of this year to lock in profits.

6. If the Democratic Party nominates a presidential candidate that is perceived to be able to defeat Trump , this may lead to policy changes and is negative for stocks  (Trump is supportive for rising stock markets).

Technically, the next two supports for the S & P 500 are 3200 and then 3135. Falling to the 50-day moving average of 3135 is a 3.8% drop from historical high of 3258. If the important 50-day moving average is broken, there is a chance to test the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Falling to the 100-day moving average support 3042 is a 6.6% drop from all time high, while falling to the 200-day moving average support 2974 is a 8.7% drop. The normal stock market adjustment is between 5 and 10%.

在整个2019年，道琼斯工业平均指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨了22％，28％和25％。众所周知，股市上涨太多而需要修正。上周美国无人机杀死了伊朗的高级将领，今天，伊朗轰炸了伊拉克境内的两个美国基地报复，这增加了两国之间发生战争的可能性。这些事件可能会触发人们长期以来预期的股市修正。

令投资者担忧的其他因素还有：

1. 美国CNN Money的“恐惧与贪婪”指数最近达到近100（最高可能达到的水平高），今天已退到89，这是一个极端贪婪的水平并且极为罕见。当贪婪和恐惧指数达到80时，股市通常会进行修正。这个指标显示美国股市进行修正的可能性很高。

2. 第四季度的收益报告季节将从下周开始，如果财报不令人满意股票会遭到抛售。

3. 中美第一阶段贸易协定将于1月15日签署。由于股票价格已经反映了这个好消息，而投资者可能会开始担心下一阶段谈判的不协调，所以投资者可能会在事后抛售股票。

4. 自2019年10月以来，原油价格已上涨了27％以上，随着美国和伊朗之间的冲突升级，原油价格将进一步上涨。油价上涨和经济增长缓慢可能会导致滞胀，这对经济而言不是个好情况。

5. 由于避税而导致去年未售出的股票可能会在今年年初被投资者出售以锁定利润。

6. 如果民主党提名被认为能够击败特朗普的总统候选人，这可能会导致政策变化而对股市不利（特朗普支持股市上涨）。

技术上标普500的下两个支撑是3200然后是3135。跌至50日均线3135是从历史高位3258下跌3.8%。假如重要的50日均线被击穿则有机会下探100日及200日均线。跌至100日均线支撑3042是6.6%的调整，而跌至200日均线2974支撑则是8.7%。正常的股市调整幅度是5到10%之间。