There are too many negatives for the market to list, followings are only a few of them:
1. What melt up usually follow by melt down. SPX melted up 17% from October 2019 low to January 2020 high, up 42% from Dec 2018 low to January 2020 high. Stock market's almost non-stop melt up will inevitably usher in melt down, past examples are melt downs in 1987, 2000 and 2008.
2. Economic growth is slowing. The Washington-based IMF forecast in October a global growth rate of 3% for 2019 and of 3.4% for 2020. The IMF has now revised down those forecasts to 2.9% and 3.3%, respectively. The downward revision was mostly due to lower growth in India. For 2021, the Fund has forecast a growth rate of 3.4%. A worse-than-expected 0.3% MoM drop in the Conference Board leading economic index, ending the year with 5 down months in the last six.
3. Leading stock price is over doing it. After stock surging 107% in the past 1 year, Apple (AAPL) 's forward PE is now over 21 but it's consensus projected earning growth this year is -2.6%. Stock price appreciation has been out pacing earning growth by a big margin. When AAPL price comes down to reality, sharp drop in the stock market will ensure.
4. Wuhan virus spread may cause economic slow down in China and the world. Chinese GDP grew at an 11.1% annualized rate in Q1 2003 as SARS was discovered; that figure dipped to 9.1% in Q2 2003. Followings are the latest virus statistics:
。Total number of confirmed cases now 900+, 26 dead.
。China restricts travel for 40+ million people as the death toll surges.
。Two deaths have been reported outside Wuhan.
。Some residents displaying symptoms are being turned away from hospitals.
。Hospitals in Wuhan make urgent pleas for help and supplies.
。Experts believe the virus spread will get worse due to Chinese New Year population flow.
5. Fear is looming underneath. Although major indices still look calm on the surface, but the CNNMoney.com Fear and Greed index has fallen from 99 to today's 64 in less than 2 weeks and CBOE Put/ Call Ration has jumped from 0.5 to over 1 indicating fear underneath. 10 YearTreasury has been rallying causing yield dropping to 1.69% from 1.95%, this is a sign of capital flight to safe haven.
6. Good news is almost out. The two things that have been helping the recent market melt up are expectation of a truce in trade war between US and China and good Q4 earnings. Now that the phase 1 trade negotiation is over but $360B tariffs are still apply to Chinese goods, and experts don't see much good out of the deal. Major earnings will be out by the next two weeks, sell on news is likely regardless the earnings are good, bad or neutral since stock prices have got to as good as they can go levels .
面对英特尔（INTC）强劲的财报，美国主要的股票市场指数今天却已经从上向下反转。 如果各大市场指数今天收于其低点附近，则表明下行修正已经开始。 各大指数已形成了看跌的当日反转和看跌的吞没图表模式。买入UVXY和SQQQ可能会带来可观的回报，因为它们在过去1年中分别下跌了83％和66％。跌得多则升得也会多。
市场上有太多负面因素要列出了，以下只是其中一些：
股市需要下跌修正的原因：
1.Melt Up后通常会Melt Down。从2019年10月低点到2020年1月高点，SPX上升了17％，而从2018年12月低点到2020年1月高点上涨了42％。股市几乎不间断的上升将不可避免地引发崩溃，过去的例子是1987、2000和2008年的崩溃。
2.经济增长正在放缓。总部位于华盛顿的国际货币基金组织（IMF）于10月预测，2019年全球增长率为3％，2020年为3.4％。国际货币基金组织（IMF）现在已分别将这些预测下调至2.9％和3.3％。向下修正主要是由于印度的增长较低。基金预测2021年的增长率为3.4％。美国经济咨商局领先经济指数环比下降0.3％，坏与预期，在过去的六个月中，该指数下降了5个月。
3.龙头股的股票价格已经上升过份。在过去1年中股价飙升107％之后，苹果（AAPL）的预测市盈率现在已经超过21，但市场普遍预计，今年的收益增长为-2.6％。股价上涨已经大大超过了盈利增长。当AAPL的价格跌向现实水平时，股市也会随之急剧下跌。
4.武汉病毒的传播可能会导致中国乃至世界经济放缓。在2003年SARS病毒发生时，2003年第一季度中国GDP年均增长率为11.1％。该数字在2003年第二季度下降到9.1％。以下是最新的病毒统计数据：
。现已确认的病例总数为900+，死亡26例。
。随着死亡人数激增，中国限制了40+百万人出行。
。武汉以外地区据报有两人死亡。
。一些表现出症状的居民被拒之医院门外。
。武汉市的医院紧急请求帮助和物资。
。专家认为，由于农历新年的人口流动，该病毒的传播将变得更糟。
5.恐惧隐约可见。尽管主要大市指数表面上看起来仍然平静，但CNNMoney.com恐惧与贪婪指数在不到2周的时间内从99跌至今天的64，CBOE看跌期权/看涨期权比率在过去几天已从0.5跃升至1以上，表明存在内在恐惧。 10年期美国国债一直在上涨，导致收益率从1.95％下降至1.69％，这表明资本开始逃往避险天堂。
6.好消息即将过去。助长近期市场上升的两主要件事是对中美之间贸易战停战以及第四季度良好收益的预期。现在，第一阶段贸易谈判已经结束，但是$ 360B关税仍适用于中国商品，专家认为这笔交易不会带来多大好处。主要企业财报将在未来两周内报完，无论收益是好，坏还是中立，股票都可能会被抛售，因为股票价格已经达到了难以再高的水平。
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