The US stock market was hit by two shocks in recent days. First one is the spreading of the Omicron Variant which came to light last Friday. There is still a lot of unknown about Omicron but is believe to be more contagious and the existing vaccines may not be able to block the virus. The second one is Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell has recognized high inflation is not transitory and suggested that it would be appropriate to “consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases, which we actually announced at the November meeting, perhaps a few months sooner.” US stock market reacted violently to the Omicron shock by dropping the Dow 905 points on Friday. Then on Tuesday, the Dow plunged 652 points in reaction to the inflation is not transitory shock. Dip buyers then rushing in to buy on Wednesday as nothing has happened.
With the the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 retraced only 4.6% and 3.8% from their all time highs respectively based on Tuesday's closes and after the strong bounce today, they are now only 2.9% and 2.1% respectively, is this big enough of a correction for the two big shocks mentioned above? I don't think so. This is because the Omicron spread to US news is imminent and Fed quicken tapering announcement is coming in two weeks. These actual happenings will likely dampen market mood again. Also, we don't want to forget that the the National Debt, Buffet Indicator (Equity Value/ GDP) , margin debts and the S&P 500 Price to Sales ratio are all at the highest level in history and CAPE for the S&P 500 is the second highest in history. These measures of market over valuation are going to bite at some point.
As for the market technicals, the Russell 2000 ETF IWM is below its 200 day moving average , the Dow is below its 50 day moving averages while both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 are below their 20 day moving averages, short term they are in down trends despite today's bounce. Bounces are just bounces, they don't change trend until resistances are overcome. Resistances for Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 ETF IWM are 35298, 4669, 15825 and 224 respectively.
美国股市近来受到两次冲击。第一次是上周五曝光的 Omicron Variant 的传播。关于 Omicron 仍有很多未知数，但被认为更具传染性，现有的疫苗可能无法阻止病毒传播。第二次是美联储主席杰伊鲍威尔已经认识到高通胀不是暂时的，并建议“考虑结束我们在 11 月会议上实际宣布的缩减资产购买计划，或许提前几个月”是合适的。 ”美国股市对Omicron的冲击反应强烈，周五道指下跌 905 点。随后周二道指暴跌652点，反应了对“通胀并非过渡行”的冲击。好想什么也没发生一样，周三买家纷纷涌入购买股票。
纳斯达克综合指数和标准普尔 500 指数周二收盘时的价位从历史高点分别仅回撤了 4.6% 和 3.8%，在今天强劲反弹之后，它们现在分别只是 2.9% 和 2.1%在历史高点之下，这是否下跌得足够以反应上面提到的两个大冲击呢？我不认为足够。这是因为 Omicron 传到美国的消息迫在眉睫，而美联储将在两周内加快缩减买债规模。这些实际情况的发生可能会再次抑制市场。此外，我们不要忘记国家债务、巴菲特指标（股市总值/GDP）、保证金债务和标准普尔 500 指数市销率均处于历史最高水平，而标准普尔 500 指数的 CAPE 是历史第二高。这些市场估值衡量标准的过高将在某个时候必会发挥负面作用。
至于市场技术面，罗素 2000 ETF IWM 低于其 200 天移动平均线，道指低于其 50 天移动平均线，而纳斯达克综合指数和标准普尔 500 指数均低于它们的 20 天移动平均线，短期它们仍处于跌势尽管今天反弹。反弹只是反弹，在克服阻力之前它们不会改变趋势。道琼斯指数、标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和罗素 2000 ETF IWM 的阻力分别为 35298、4669、15825 和 224。
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