Yesterday, after the Federal Reserve announced to quicken tapering as expected, investors felt relieved and every body think that the stock market downside is done and it is ready for year end rally. This kind of thinking triggered a big rally and turned major market indexes from down to sharply higher, at the close the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are up by 400, 79 and 338 respectively yesterday.
Coming into today, mega tech stocks turned down after initial rallies. ADBE's lower outlooks for Q1 and the whole 2022 drive the stock down 9%. After yesterday's panic buying before the close, AAPL is giving up most of its gains from yesterday and formed a bearish Double Top pattern. Why this happen is AAPL's valuation is too high. Tech sectors IGV, SMH, FDN and XLK are now down 2.14%, 2.84%, 1.89% and 1.76% respectively.
It is a split market today as Nasdaq is down and the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are up. Let's see who wins out by the close. Since the capitalization of the 6 biggest tech stocks combine is over 25% of the market, it is hard for the market to rally without them. So my guess is that techs are likely to win out and dragging the overall market down with it.
Fundamentally, the OmicronVariant is spreading like wild fire which may further set economy growth back. Mean while, the Federal Reserve has decided to quicken its tapering and getting ready for rate hike next year. Slow growth and high inflation/interest rate is stagflation. Technically, the Dow and S&P 500 are both near all time high as nothing bad has happened. This is hard to sustain. The Nasdaq Composite failed to recover above its 20 day moving average and looks likely to retest the recent low. While the Russell 2000 is below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages, all trends are down.
So, there may not be year end rally.
昨日在美联储宣布如期加速缩减后，大家都心宽起来，认为股市下行已经结束，准备迎接年底的上升。这种想法引发了大涨，带动主要市场指数由跌转升，昨日收盘时道指、标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨400点、79点和338点。
进入今天，大型科技股从最初的上升回落。 ADBE 对第一季度和整个 2022 年的较低展望导致该股下跌 9%。在昨天收盘前的恐慌性买盘之后，苹果今天放弃了昨天的大部分涨幅，形成了看跌的双顶格局。之所以会出现这种情况，是因为 AAPL 的估值实在是太高了。科技板块IGV、SMH、FDN和XLK目前分别下跌2.14%、2.84%、1.89%和1.76%。
今天市场有分裂情况，纳斯达克指数下跌而道琼斯指数、标准普尔 500 指数和罗素 2000 指数均上涨。让我们看看谁会在最后胜出。由于 6 大科技股的总市值为市场的 25%有多，如果没有它们，市场很难上升。所以我的猜测是科技股很可能会胜出并拖累整个市场下跌。
从基本面上说，OmicronVariant 正在像野火一样蔓延，这可能会进一步阻碍经济增长。与此同时，美联储已决定加快缩减买债规模，为明年加息做好准备。缓慢的增长和高通胀/高利率就是滞胀，对股市不利。从技术上讲，道琼斯指数和标准普尔 500 指数都接近历史最高点，好像没有发生任何不好的事情一样。这个高位很难维持。纳斯达克综合指数之未能向上收复 20 天移动平均线，看来可能会重新测试近期低点。罗素 2000 指数低于其 20、50 和 200 天移动平均线，但所有趋势都看跌。
因此，年终牛市很可能不会出现。
No comments:
Post a Comment