The volatility index VIX ETF UVXY jumped from 15.29 on November 24, reached a high of 26.22 on December 3. During this period the market was trying to discount the negative impacts of the fast spreading Omicron Variant and the expected tightening by the Federal Reserve. But then UVXY retraced sharply back down to 14.84 by December 10, this action has totally erased all the fears. Now that Omicron Variant is spreading much faster (14557 infected Vs 99 two and a half weeks ago) , both CPI and PPI are the highest in a long time and the Federal Reserve is to decide on monetary policy today and is expected to drastically reduce bond buying and getting ready to raise interest rate as early as March. This kind of set up is not good for the stock market. Sentiment is still too complacent. With the mega techs dropping and the Nasdaq Composite below its 50 and 100 day moving averages, more downside looks likely technically. AAPL's accelerated move up recently due to 4 analysts upgrades basically every other day since December 6 sure are panic moves and is indicative of buying climax for AAPL. Apple's forward PE is 28.32 and next year's earning growth is expected to be 7.22% only. AAPL is overvalued. As the US's biggest company with capitalization at 2.782 Trillions, and other mega techs go down so will the market. Even though the stock market is not down by much today but the aggressive buying of UVXY is reflecting investors worry.
波动率指数 VIX ETF UVXY 从 11 月 24 日的 15.29 跃升71.8%至 12 月 3 日的高点 26.22。在此期间，市场试图对快速蔓延的 Omicron 变种病毒和预期美联储收紧政策的负面影响进行预先反应。但随后 UVXY大幅回落。在 12 月 10 日跌至 14.84，这一举动完全消除了所有担忧。现在Omicron 变种病毒的传播速度要快得多(14557 感染 对两个半星期前的99 ），CPI和PPI都是很长时期以来的最高水平，美联储今天将决定货币政策，预计将大幅减少买债，并准备最早在3月份加息，这种情况对股市不利。随着大型科技股的下跌，纳斯达克综合指数跌破 50 天和 100 天移动平均线，技术上很可能会有更多下跌行情。自 12 月 6 日以来有 4 位分析师升级AAPL（基本上每隔一天就有升级），AAPL 最近也加速上涨，这是恐怕损失机会的举动，AAPL 或已达到买入高潮。苹果的前瞻PE 为 28.32，但明年的盈利增长预计只为 7.22%。 AAPL价值 被高估了。当市值为 2.782 万亿美元美国最大的公司AAPL和其他大型科技公司一起下跌时，市场也将不能幸免。尽管今天美股下跌不多但UVXY买盘踊跃也表明了投资人对市场的担忧。
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