Why ARKK Is A Sell 为甚么要卖出ARKK

ARKK is an extreme popular ETF runs by Cathie Wood. ARKK is up 326% since March 2020 and up 152% in the last 12 months. In the same periods, the bench mark S&P 500 index is up only 79% and 20% respectively. Investors follow results, its a no brainer why ARKK is so popular. The following is a description of the ETF.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK 138.32)

The investment seeks long-term growth of capital. The fund is an actively-managed exchange-traded fund ("ETF") that will invest under normal circumstances primarily (at least 65% of its assets) in domestic and foreign equity securities of companies that are relevant to the fund's investment theme of disruptive innovation. Its investments in foreign equity securities will be in both developed and emerging markets. It may invest in foreign securities (including investments in American Depositary Receipts ("ADRs") and Global Depositary Receipts ("GDRs")) and securities listed on local foreign exchanges. The fund is non-diversified.

The fund's holding include: TSLA, ROKU, SQ, TDOC, NVTA, Z, SPOT, PRLB, PSTG, EDIT, BIDU, NTLA,EXAS, TWLO, IOVA, TWST, DOCU, MTLS,PYPL, TREE, TWOU, PD, ICE, ZM, VCYT, PACB, IRDM, MCRB, SE, SPLK, SNPS, PINS, NSTG, TXG, HUYA, CERS, SYRS, NVS, REGN, FATE, ONVO.

I have gone through all the above stocks ARKW is holding and here are what I found that are alarming and are reasons to sell. 

1. ARKK has broken below its 50 day moving average and is in a down trend.

2. Out of the 41 stocks, there are 23 stocks that are trading below their 50 day moving average. This means these 23 stocks are in down trends.

3. 19 stocks don't have Forward PE, meaning they are not making money yet. For those stocks with PE, the average PE is 752! Take away the most outrage PE of 9782, the average PE is still 351! The Forward PE for S&P 500 is only around 40 and is already considered very high.

4. There are 24 stocks that gain 100% in the last 12 months. 11 of these stocks gain over 200%, 6 gain over 300%, 3 gain over 400%, 1 gain over 800%. The 12 month gain for S&P 500 is only 20%. 

5. Since Cathie Wood is so popular around individual investors, what ever she buy these investors will follow. These indiscriminate purchases sure help to artificially push up stocks and added emotional premium to a certain degree. 

6. ARKK's top holding is TSLA and it has been targeted to sell along with other big cap tech stocks. TSLA trend is down since it has solidly broken below its 50 day moving average. 

7. The holdings in ARKK are high growth stocks. During time of inflation and increasing interest rate, growth stock are likely to be sold in favor of valued and low PE stocks. 

8. ARKK was established at the right time when investors are chasing momentum regardless of fundamentals. As old saying says: Timing makes heroes. That time is over and 2021 will likely be the year these high flyers will get kill as PE gets normalized. 

9. Following are 41 charts for your references:

ARKK是凯蒂·伍德（Cathie Wood）经营的一种极受欢迎的ETF。自2020年3月以来，ARKK上涨了326％，而过去12个月上涨了152％。同期，标普500指数仅分别上涨79％和20％。投资者关注结果，这样的好回报就是为什么ARKK如此受欢迎的原因。以下是ARKK的说明。

ARK创新ETF（ARKK 138.32）

该投资寻求资本的长期增长。该基金是一种积极管理的交易所买卖基金（“ ETF”），在正常情况下将主要（至少占其资产的65％）投资于与该基金的创新性投资主题相关的公司的国内外股票证券。它对外国股票证券的投资将同时在发达和新兴市场。它可能投资于外国证券（包括对美国存托凭证（“ ADR”）和全球存托凭证（“ GDR”）的投资）以及在当地外汇交易所上市的证券。该基金是非多元化的。

基金持有的股票包括：TSLA，ROKU，SQ，TDOC，NVTA，Z，SPOT，PRLB，PSTG，EDIT，BIDU，NTLA，EXAS，TWLO，IOVA，TWST，DOCU，MTLS，PYPL，TREE，TWOU，PD，ICE ，ZM，VCYT，PACB，IRDM，MCRB，SE，SPLK，SNPS，PINS，NSTG，TXG，HUYA，CERS，SYRS，NVS，REGN，FATE，ONVO。

我查阅了ARKK持有的上述所有股票，下面就是我发现的令人震惊的情况，也是该卖出ARKK的原因。

1. ARKK已跌破其50天移动平均线，并处于下跌趋势中。

2.在41只股票中，有23只股票的交易价格已低于它们的50天移动平均线。这意味着这23只股票已在下跌趋势。

3. 19只股票没有前瞻市盈率，这意味着它们还没有赚钱。对于拥有PE的股票来说，平均PE是752！拿走9782最高的PE，平均PE仍然是351！标普500的前瞻PE仅为40左右，已经被认为很高了。

4.有24只股票在过去12个月上涨了100％。其中11只股票的涨幅超过200％，6只股票的涨幅超过300％，3只股票的涨幅超过400％，1只股票的涨幅超过800％。标普500指数12个月涨幅仅为20％。

5.由于凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）在个人投资者中非常受欢迎，因此这些投资者也跟进她买入的股票。这些不加选择的购买肯定有助于推动股票上升而加进了一定程度的情绪溢价。

6. ARKK的最大持股是TSLA，它最近与其他大型科技股一样是被抛售的目标。 TSLA趋势已稳固地跌破50天移动平均线，因此下跌趋势已成。这必然会拖累ARKK。

7. ARKK持有的股票都是高增长股票。在通货膨胀和利率上升期间，增长型股票可能会被抛售，而偏向买入价值合理和低PE股票。

8. ARKK因成立合时而成功。那时是无论基本面如何，投资者都因动力而追赶势头的时候。俗话说：时势造英雄。这段时间已经过去，随着PE的正常化，这些升得多的股票可能会在2021年大跌。

9. 下面是所有41只股票的图表以供参考：

Both Stock Market And Bitcoin Are Ready To Bounce 股市及比特币都准备反弹

 The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite had a quick drop of 8.26% from all time high to today's low during the last 6 days. This is quite a sharp drop and is consider as a panic selloff and it is likely to reverse in the short term. The main key for the Nasdaq Composite to be able to reverse up is if it can maintain above its 50 day moving average level at 13242 and today's low at 13000. Federal Reserve chairman just finished his testimony in congress and is not concern about inflation at this time calms markets. The House budget committee has approved a $1.9 trillions stimulus plan Monday and is ready to vote to pass by the end of this week also should support markets near term. The Nasdaq Composite may bounce towards its 20 day moving average at 13706. Since the sharp drops in the past two days are quite a scare for investors, the short term bounce does not guarantee a continue rally. I think the strategy for the stock market now is sell on rallies.

Falling in sync with the stock market, Bitcoin dropped 23% from its all time high of $58304 to a low of $44845 in the last 3 days. Knowing the volatility of Bitcoin,  this is considered normal. So the supports are now $47000, $46000 and $45000 and its resistances are $49000, $52000 and $54000. it may take some time for it to go back up to historical high $58304 again, but the sharp correction may attract even more buyers into Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a fantastic short term trading vehicle if you are fast enough. 

纳斯达克综合指数在过去6天中从历史高点迅速下跌至今天的低点，跌幅为8.26％。这是一个相当大的下跌，可说是恐慌性的抛售，但短期内可能会反转向上。纳斯达克综合指数能够反转的主要关键是能否维持在其50日移动平均线水平13242和今天的低点13000上方。美联储主席刚刚在国会上作了证词，他并不担心通货膨胀。市场因而能够稳定下来。众议院预算委员会周一已通过了一项1.9万亿美元的刺激计划，并准备在本周末在众医院投票通过，这也应该是短期内支持市场。纳斯达克综合指数可能会反弹到它的20天移动均线13706水平。由于过去两天的大幅下跌对投资者来说是相当大的惊吓，因此短期反弹并不能保证持续反弹。我认为目前股市的策略应该是逢高卖出。

与股市同步，比特币在过去三天里从历史最高点58304美元下跌23％至今天低点44845美元。知道比特币的波动性，这是正常的表现。现在支撑位分别为47000美元，46000美元和45000美元，阻力位为49000美元，52000美元和54000美元。它可能需要一段时间才能再次回到历史高位58304美元，但急剧的修正可能会吸引更多的买家购买比特币。如果您足够快的话，比特币是一个很棒的短期交易产品。

Opportunities To Trade For Profit Now 现在可交易获利的机会

Life is full of good opportunities and we are right at one now. I am talking about opportunity to make money and this a perfect time for making money in speculative trading. The bubbly stock market, the validation and fast adaptation of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies investments, the short squeeze phenomenon causes daily multi-hundred percent appreciation of stocks, and the still very low interest rate that destine to rise fast due to inflation. However, in order to trade successfully, you need to equip yourself with market knowledge, technical and fundamental analysis skills, trading skills and the right trading mentality.  It will definitely helps if you are also fluent in short selling, options and ETFs. All the above will allow you to exercise you trading flexibility at will. 

Bubbly Stock Market

The S&P 500 has risen from 2020 March low of 2192 to Friday's close of 3907, a huge 78% increase in 11 months. This is the largest 11 month gain since a 46% yearly gain in 1933.  The 78% rise in the past 11 months definitely dwarfed the average S&P 500 yearly return of 7% throughout history and is not nomal.   This comparison and numerous other metrics such as S&P 500 has the 3rd highest PE in history, highest Buffet Indicator (whole stock market value/GDP), highest margin debt level, extreme low interest rate that is destine to rise and the very low Volatility Index (VIX) and stock Put/Call ratio indicating extreme bullish sentiment all are calling for a sharp market correction to come. It is not the time to buy and hold stocks  at this point. It is the time to trade and it is a opportunity to make big money in betting on market down turn at the right time.  I think the right time is fast approaching.  UVXY, TZA, SQQQ and FNGD are good vehicles to participate on the market down turn. These are only suggested ETFs, you still need to time the entries and exits.

Bitcoin and Crypto Currencies

With a 200% annual appreciation in Bitcoin during the past 10 years sure catch everyone by surprise. With Bitcoin on the verge of breaking above $60,000, there are still many skeptics out there and that is why it is so bullish for Bitcoin.  Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are the new investment trend, the critics just don't see it.  The rise is just the beginning, as billionaires, hedge funds, mutual funds and corporations are just starting to warm up to the idea and many will be force to get in as the adaptation of Bitcoin accelerates. With about 18.63 millions of Bitcoins in circulation currently and a life time limit of only 21 millions, the supply and demand factor alone should drive Bitcoin price much higher.  I do believe that Bitcoin is to replace Gold as hedge against risks. Bitcoin's capitalization is around $1 trillion and Gold is 10 trillions,  Bitcoin price still has a lot of room to grow. Bitcoin price can reach $600,000 if Bitcoin take the place of gold. For this year,  projected Bitcoin price ranges from $100,000 to $300,000. Buy on dips is the way to play Bitcoin. Ways to participate in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the stock market are GBTC, CAN, MARA, RIOT, MOGO, BTBT, SI, MSTR, PYPL, SQ, OSTK and BRPHF.   The above are only suggestions, you still need to time the entries and exits. You may also open accounts for trading crypto currencies directly with crypto currency exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, Bittrex....etc. 

Short Squeeze Phenomenon

It is generally known that if the short interest of a stock is high and the share float is small, any positive news will cause a short squeeze and drive stock surging higher. The recent Game Stop (GME) and AMC Entertainment short squeeze fiascos drove GME and AMC stock surged 2703% and 966% higher respectively from January 2021 low to January 27, 2021 high. Of course, these extremes cannot be achieved without the ignorance of many retail investors.  The aftermaths are that there are many big winners and big losers and we need to navigate with caution and hopefully land on the winner side.  After what happened on GME and AMC, it becomes customary for investors to look for high shorts and low float stock to trade. Nowadays, there's no lack of daily multi-hundred percent stock movers each day. There are plenty of opportunities for knowledgeable and skillful traders to make a killing for the short term. I think go with wisely and carefully chosen daily big movers to trade for the short term (1 to 3 days) is highly profitable.   I also believe small biotech with new drug potentials are the safest in this market environment.  Here are a few biotech short squeeze potentials: SRNE, CLGN, AVXL, SAVA and CLVS. The above are only suggestions, you still need to time the entries and exits.

Long Term US Treasury Is Bearish

With Federal Reserve keep pumping money into the economy, the $1.9 trillions economic stimulus plan expected to be approved soon by congress and the roll outs of virus vaccines, the economy is expected to heat up. Better economic growth means higher inflation and interest rate. High inflation and interest rate means lower treasury bond prices. So it should be profitable to short treasuries. One way to have the same effect without shorting is by buying TBT (the ETF that reflects 2x performance of the reverse of the 20+ year treasuries ).  The above is only suggestion, you still need to time the entries and exits.

人生充满了美好的机会，而我们现在正处在一个时刻。我说的是赚钱的机会，这是在投机交易中赚钱的绝佳时机。活跃的股票市场，比特币和加密货币投资的确认和快速适应，短暂的挤压现象导致股票每日升值数百％，并且由于通货膨胀，仍然非常低的利率决定快速上升。但是，为了成功进行交易，您需要掌握市场知识，技术和基本面分析，交易技巧以及正确的交易心态。如果您还精通卖空，期权和ETF，那肯定会有所帮助。以上所有内容将使您可以随意行使交易灵活性。

 泡沫性的股票市场

标准普尔500指数已从2020年3月的低点2192点上涨至周五的收盘价3907点，在11个月中大幅上涨了78％。这是自1933年以来的46％的年度增长以来最大的11个月增长。过去11个月中的78％增长无疑使标准普尔500指数平均7％的历史年度回报率相形见拙，而且并非正常。这种不正常以及其他许多指标，例如标准普尔500指数达到历史上第三最高的市盈率，最高的巴菲特指表(整体股市价值/GDP），最高的保证金债务水平，必然上升的超低利率以及显示看涨情绪高涨的极低的波动指数（VIX）和看跌/看涨期权比例都是市场大幅调整的先兆。现在不是时候购买和持有股票而是短线交易的时候。在正确的时间押注市场下跌将是赚大利润的机会。我认为合适的时机即将到来。 UVXY，TZA，SQQQ和FNGD是参与下跌市场的好工具。这些都只是提议，您仍需选择入场及出场价格与时间。

比特币和加密货币

在过去10年中，比特币的年升值幅度为200％，这肯定会让所有人感到惊讶。随着比特币即将突破60,000美元水平却仍然有很多怀疑者，这就是为什么对比特币如此看好的原因。比特币和加密货币是极具潜力的新兴投资，批评者只是看不到它好处。比特币的上升还只是个开始，因为亿万富翁，对冲基金，共同基金和企业才刚刚开始接受这一想法，随着对比特币的适应加速，许多人将被迫买入。当前有大约1863万比特币在流通，总数量限制在2100万个，仅凭供求因素就可以把比特币价格推高很多。我确实相信比特币将取代黄金来对冲风险。比特币的市值约为1万亿美元，黄金为10万亿美元，如且看来比特币的价格仍有很大的增长空间。如果比特币真的代替黄金，比特币的价格可以达到60万美元一个。今年，预计的比特币价格从100,000美元到300,000美元不等。逢低买入是现在玩比特币的方式。在股票市场上参与比特币和加密货币的方式有GBTC，CAN，MARA，RIOT，MOGO，BTBT，SI，MSTR，PYPL，SQ, OSTK和BRPHF。这些都只是提议，您仍需选择入场及出场价格与时间。您也可以直接通过Coinbase，Binance，Kraken，Bittrex等加密货币交易所开设交易加密货币的帐户来加以加密货币。

股票的逼空现象 

众所周知，如果股票的空头头寸很高，而股票的流通量很小，那么任何利好消息都会导致空头挤压并推动股票大幅上涨。从2021年1月的低点到2021年1月27日的高点，最近的Game Stop（GME）和AMC Entertainment的空头挤压导致GME和AMC的股票分别上涨了2703％和966％。当然，如果没有许多散户投资者的无知，就不可能实现这些极端。结果是有许多大赢家和大输家，我们需要谨慎行事，并希望落在赢家一方。在GME和AMC的事情发生之后，投资者习惯于寻找高空头和低流通量股票进行交易。如今，每天不乏百分之几百上涨的股票。知识渊博且炒股技能娴熟的交易者有大量机会在短期内获大利润。我认为，明智且精心选择的每日波动大的股票进行短期（1至3天）交易是非常有利可图的。我还相信，在这种市场环境下，具有新药潜力的小型生物技术是最安全及大涨潜力最大的。以下是一些生物技术领域的空头挤压潜力股：SRNE，CLGN，AVXL，SAVA和CLVS。这些都只是提议，您仍需选择入场及出场价格与时间。

长期美国国债看跌

随着美联储（Fed）继续向经济注入资金，预计国会将很快批准1.9万亿美元的经济刺激计划，以及病毒疫苗的推出，预计经济将升温。 好的经济增长意味着高的通货膨胀率和利率。 高通胀和高利率意味着国债价格走跌。 因此，卖空国债应该有利可图。 在没有做空的情况下达到相同效果的一种方法是购买TBT（反映20年以上国债反向的2倍表现的ETF）。这只是提议，您仍需选择入场及出场价格与时间。

Warning: Sector Leaders Are Being Sold 警告：板块龙头股正在被抛售

Investors Business Daily has a indicator called Accumulation/Distribution Rating that tracks the relative degree of institutional buying (accumulation) and selling (distribution) over the last 13 weeks in a particular stock. The rating ranges from E to A, A means heavy buying while E means heavy selling, C and below indicates institutions selling while above indicates institution buying. With this in mind, following are ratings for leading stocks in different sectors with ratings at C or lower:

Symbols    Accumulation/Distribution

FB            E

QCOM    E

MCD       E

AMT       E

PG          D-

BMY      D-

UNH      D-

KO         D-  

AAPL    D

WMT    D

ADBE    D

HON      D

MRK     D+

VZ         D+

HD        C-

V           C-

IBM       C-

NFLX   C-

CMCSA C-

COST    C

Of the 20 stocks above, 15 are trading below their 50 day moving averages and their trends are down. These stocks are FB, QCOM, PG, BMY, UNH, KO, AAPL, WMT, ADBE, HON, MRK, VZ, V, IBM, and COST. The weakness of these stocks increase the old of market correction. 

投资者商业日报（Investors Business Daily）有一个指标，称为累积/分发评级，该指标跟踪过去13周内特定股票在机构的买入（累积）和卖出（分配）的相对程度。评级范围从E到A，A显示强力买入而E则是强烈卖出，C及以下表示机构卖出，而高于C则表示机构买入。以下是评分在C或以下的不同行业的龙头股票：

符号            累积/分发

FB                E 

QCOM         E 

MCD            E

AMT            E

PG                D-

BMY            D-

UNH            D-

KO               D- 

AAPL          D 

WMT           D

ADBE         D 

HON           D

MRK           D+

VZ              D+

HD              C-

V                C-

IBM            C- 

NFLX         C- 

CMCSA      C-

COST         C

以上 20只的股票中，有15只交易价格低于50天移动平均线，显示趋势下降。这些股票是FB, QCOM, PG, BMY, UNH, KO, AAPL, WMT, ADBE, HON, MRK, VZ, V, IBM, 和 COST。这些股票的弱势增加了市场下调的风险。

A Way To Play The Interest Rate Up Turn 一种参与利率上升获利的投资

As more and more people getting vaccinated, economic growth is expected to increase as more and more business open up. How ever, the negative come with economic growth is interest rate trending higher. The Treasury Yield trend is precursor to interest rate trend. Treasury Yields bottomed in August 2020 and have been rising and the up trend started to accelerate at the start of 2021. The 10 Year Treasury Yield bottomed at 0.31% last August and it is now at 1.30% (a 319% increase) as of today. The sharp jump from 1.20% to 1.30% today caught investors notice and the stock market got dragged down from the morning rally. Everybody know that interest rate cannot be kept low forever, and the rise has already started. Higher interest rate is going to be bad for stocks especially the large cap growth stocks and hence decrease in stock market return. Making money in the stock market is not going to be easy during high interest rate environment. 

However, one way to make money when interest rate rises is to buy TBT (the opposite of TLT).  This is a way to participate on the downtrend of long term US treasury bonds. It is described as  follows:

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT 19.29): The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. The fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index includes publicly-issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years and have $300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve. The fund is non-diversified.

随着越来越多的人开始接种疫苗，随着越来越多的企业开业，经济增长有望提高。但是，经济增长带来的负面影响是利率趋于上升。国债收益率趋势是利率趋势的先兆。美国国债收益率在2020年8月触底，并一直在上升，上升趋势在2021年初开始加速。十年期美国国债收益率在去年8月跌至0.31％的谷底，而今天则已是1.30％（涨幅319％）。今天从1.20％急剧上涨至1.30％引起了投资者的注意，股市也从早盘的高位被拖累下跌。每个人都知道，利率不可能永远保持低位，现在上升已经开始。高的利率将不利于股票，尤其是大的成长型股票，而股票市场的回报也会因而减小。在利率上升的环境下，在股市上赚钱将会不容易。

不过利率上升时赚钱的一种方法是购买TBT (与TLT相反）。这是参与长期美国国债下跌获利的一种方法。 TBT的描述如下：

 ProShares 20年以上国库券看跌ETF（TBT 19.29）：此项投资寻求的每日投资结果（扣除费用和支出之前）是ICE美国20年以上国库券指数每日表现的相反的两倍（-2x）。基金投资于ProShare Advisors认为可以组合产生与基金投资目标一致的每日收益的金融工具。该指数包括公开发行的，期限在20年以上，剩余面值为3亿美元或以上，不包括美联储持有的美国国债。基金是非多元化的。

Bitcoin Ready To Surge Past $50000 As Positive News Keep Rushing In利好消息不断涌入比特币准备飙升至$ 50000以上

After consolidating narrowly between $46000 to $48000 from Feb 11 to Feb 13, Bitcoin broke above Feb 11 high of $49000, and is now trading between $48000 and $50000, the breaking of $50000 looks avoidable and imminent. News from Master Card and BNY Mellon Bank getting involve in Bitcoin, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Cathie Woods fund bought more Bitcoin , City of Miami plans to allow using bitcoin in paying employee salary and accept Bitcoin in paying tax, to Canada approved the trading of Bitcoin ETF all serve as a strong support for higher Bitcoin price. Miners refrain from selling and smaller Bitcoin in flow to exchanges to sell also are bullish signs. Based on Measured Move calculation,  Bitcoin's next technical target is around $61000 after it breaks above $50000. Bitcoin related investments are Bitcoin (BTC),  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Riot Blockchain (RIOT), Marathon Patent (MARA), Microstrategy (MSTR), Tesla (TSLA), PayPal (PYPL), Square (SQ), Silvergate Capital (SI), Mogo (MOGO), and Galaxy Digital Holdings (BRPHF).

Followings are Bitcoin related news in the last few days:

Bitcoin recently stood at $48,800 on Sunday morning, up 3.2%. It had traded as high as $49,714 earlier in the day. The cryptocurrency is up around 70% year to date. After long being shunned by traditional financial firms, bitcoin and other virtual currencies appear to be increasingly entering the mainstream as an asset and routine payment vehicle.Institutional investors are rapidly gobbling up Bitcoin, and at the time of writing, nearly 3% of the Bitcoin (BTC) in circulation are locked up in long-term holdings by these investors. Data shows that 24 entities have amassed more than 460,500 BTC, which is equivalent to $22 billion at Bitcoin's current price. According to Michael Novogratz, this figure excludes the3 million BTC forever lost, who estimates that a supply shortage could occur shortly if institutions keep up their current buying spree. ---Cointelegraph 02/14/2021 

The first publicly traded bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in North America has been given the go-ahead by Canada’s financial regulator. According a decision document on Thursday, the receipt of approval from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) was filed under a Multilateral Instrument passport system in multiple Canadian jurisdictions.The fund seeks to replicate the performance of the price of bitcoin minus fees and expenses, according to fact sheet posted online by Canada-based asset manager Purpose Investments. The ETF won’t speculate on short-term changes in the price of bitcoin. ---Coindesk 02/14/2021

One month ago when few people believed that it was only a matter of weeks if not days before institutions flooded into bitcoin as Tesla unleashed a feverish adoption of the cryptocurrency,（we predicted that not only would Elon Musk buy billions in bitcoin as Tesla confirmed last week) sparking a cascade of institutional copycats (including financial giants as Mastercard and BNY this week), but that it was none other than Morgan Stanley that hinted us as to what is coming....As Bloomberg reports this morning citing "people with knowledge in the matter, Morgan Stanley's $150 billion investing arm - Counterpoint Global - which is a unit of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and has racked up wins in mutual-fund rankings thanks to its "prowess in picking growth stocks",is considering adding Bitcoin to its list of possible bets....Morgan Stanley’s latest affirmation of bitcoin as an asset class, one which even BofA has now included to its list of best performing assets YTD...would put the heft of an almost-century-old marquee Wall Street name behind a volatile asset class that’s still struggling to win acceptance in much of the traditional financial industry." But Bitcoin's four-fold jump in four months has "stoked customers’ interest", making investing in bitcoin harder to ignore.--ZeroHedge 02/13/2021

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has quietly accumulated another ~3500 Bitcoins over the last 24 hours pouring $166 million investment. With this, GBTC’s total Bitcoin holdings stand at 653.83K BTC coins with net assets under management (AUM) of over $34 billion.Over the last month, GBTC has increased its holdings by adding nearly 50K Bitcoins in aggressive purchases driven by strong institutional inflows. The recent interest in Bitcoin shown by American corporates has kept institutional inflows ticking in. ---Coingape 02/13/2021

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez praised the city's governing commission for passing a resolution Thursday that will study the feasibility of paying employees in as well as allowing residents to pay fees and"I want to thank the city of Miami commissioners for supporting my resolution, which directs the city manager, after analysis, to procure a vendor to be able to offer our employees to get a percentage of their salary in bitcoin, allows our residents to pay for fees in Bitcoin... [and allows] for taxes to be paid in bitcoin," Suarez said in a video Thursday night.“It’s wonderful to be a very ‘crypto-forward’ city in the city of Miami, and I want to thank my commission colleagues for allowing that to happen."---Fox News 02/13/2021 

Deutsche Bank has joined the growing ranks of large financial institutions exploring cryptocurrency custody, with aspirations to offer high-touch services to hedge funds that invest in the asset class. The Deutsche Bank Digital Asset Custody prototype aims to develop “a fully integrated custody platform for institutional clients and their digital assets providing seamless connectivity to the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem,” according to a little-noticed report by the World Economic Forum, host of the annual gathering of muckety-mucks in Davos, Switzerland. ---Coindesk 02/13/2021

It seems that the Indian government looks all determined to ban cryptocurrency operations in the country. Citing sources and officials familiar with the matter, BloombergQuint reported that India is likely to proceed with a complete ban on crypto investments. Requesting for anonymity, a senior Finance Ministry official told the publication that cryptocurrency usage in any form will be banned under the new law to be introduced in the parliament. This would also include a ban on transacting directly via foreign exchanges.However, this ban won’t be an overnight regulation passed. Meaning, once the law comes into effect, investors will get 3-6 months of transition period to completely liquidate their investments. ---Coingape 02/13/2021

Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management increased its holdings of the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) by 2.14 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2020, bringing its holdings of the market-leading institutional bitcoin investment vehicle to 7.31 million shares. ARK's holdings of GBTC are worth $357.5 million. ---Coindesk 02/12/2021

经过2月11日至2月13日在46000至48000美元之间窄幅盘整后，周日比特币突破2月11日高点49000美元，目前交易价格在48000美元至50000美元之间，突破50000美元似乎是无可避免和迫在眉睫的。 万事达卡和纽约梅隆银行介入比特币的消息，灰度比特币信托，凯蒂·伍兹基金购买了更多比特币，迈阿密市计划允许使用比特币支付员工薪水并接受比特币缴税及加拿大批准了比特币ETF的交易都是对更高比特币价格的有力支持。 矿工不出售比特币，较小的比特币流入交易所出售也是看涨的迹象。 根据用技术分析的量度法计算，在突破50000美元后，比特币的下一个技术目标将在61000美元左右。比特币相关投资包括比特币（BTC），灰度比特币信托（GBTC），Riot Blockchain（RIOT），Marathon Patent（MARA），Microstrategy（MSTR），特斯拉（TSLA），Paypal（PYPL），Square（SQ），Silvergate Capital（SI），Mogo（MOGO）和Galaxy Digital Holdings（BRPHF）。

以下是过去几天有关比特币的消息：

比特币在周日上午达到48,800美元，上涨3.2％。当天早些时候，它的交易价格高达49,714美元。今年迄今为止，加密货币已上涨约70％。在长期受到传统金融公司的拒绝之后，比特币和其他虚拟货币似乎正越来越成为主流，成为一种资产和常规支付工具。机构投资者正在迅速吸纳比特币，在撰写本文时，近3％的比特币（BTC）被这些投资者锁定在长期持有中。数据显示，有24个实体积累了超过460,500 BTC，按比特币当前价格计相当于220亿美元。根据Michael Novogratz的说法，这个数字不包括永久丢失的300万BTC，后者估计，如果机构继续保持当前的购买狂潮，不久就会出现供应短缺。 -Cointelegraph 02/14/2021

加拿大金融监管机构已批准了北美第一个公开交易的比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）。根据周四的决定文件，安大略证券委员会（OSC）的批准是在加拿大多个辖区的多边工具护照制度下提交的，该基金力图复制比特币价格减去费用和支出的表现。加拿大资产管理公司Purpose Investments在线发布的情况说明书称。 ETF不会猜测比特币价格的短期变化。 --- Coindesk 02/14/2021 

 一个月前，当特斯拉释放出对加密货币的狂热采用时，我们预测 很少有人认为的机构涌入比特币只是几周甚至几天的事情（埃隆·马斯克不仅会购买特斯拉上周证实的数十亿比特币）引发了一连串的机构模仿者（包括本周包括万事达卡和BNY等金融巨头），但正是摩根士丹利向我们暗示了即将发生的事情……。据彭博社（Bloomberg）今早援引“知情人士”的报道。事情是这样的，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的1500亿美元投资部门-Counterpoint Global-是摩根士丹利投资管理（Morgan Stanley Investment Management）的子公司，并且由于其“选拔成长型股票的能力”而在共同基金排名中大获全胜，正在考虑将比特币添加到其可能的赌注清单...摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）是对比特币作为资产类别的最新肯定，甚至美国银行现在也将其列入年初至今表现最佳的资产清单......波动性很大的资产类别背后有一个将近一个百年历史的华尔街名称，这在许多传统金融行业中仍然难以赢得人们的认可。”但是比特币在四个月内增长了四倍，已经“引起了客户的兴趣”，这使得对比特币的投资变得更加不容易被忽视。--ZeroHedge 02/13/2021 

灰度比特币信托（GBTC）在过去24小时内悄悄积累了约3500个比特币，投资额达1.66亿美元。这样一来，GBTC持有的比特币总数为653.83K BTC硬币，管理的资产净值（AUM）超过340亿美元。在过去的一个月中，GBTC通过在强劲的机构资金流入的积极购买中增加了近5万个比特币来增加了持有量。美国公司对比特币的最新兴趣使机构资金流入不断增加。--- Coingape 02/13/2021 

迈阿密市长弗朗西斯·苏亚雷斯（Francis Suarez）称赞迈阿密市管理委员会周四通过了一项决议，该决议将研究向员工用比特币支付薪水以及允许居民支付费用的可行性，“我要感谢迈阿密市专员支持我的决议，经过分析的城市经理，要促使供应商向我们的员工提供以比特币支付的工资的一部分，允许我们的居民以比特币支付费用……[并允许]以比特币支付税款。苏亚雷斯在周四晚间的一段录像中说：“在迈阿密市成为一个非常'加密转发'的城市真是太好了，我要感谢我的委员会同事允许这样做。” ---福克斯新闻02 / 13/2021 

德意志银行加入了越来越多的大型金融机构的行列，探索加密货币托管，并希望为投资于该资产类别的对冲基金提供高接触服务。每年在瑞士达沃斯（Davos）举行的论坛会议主办方世界经济论坛（World Economic Forum）一份鲜为人知的报告称，德意志银行数字资产托管原型旨在开发“为机构客户及其数字资产提供完全集成的托管平台，从而提供与更广泛的加密货币生态系统的无缝连接”。 --- Coindesk 02/13/2021

印度政府似乎决心要禁止该国的加密货币业务。 BloombergQuint援引熟悉此事的消息人士和官员的话报道，印度可能会继续全面禁止加密货币投资。要求匿名的一位财政部高级官员告诉该出版物，根据议会将颁布的新法律，任何形式的加密货币都将被禁止使用。这也将包括禁止直接通过外汇进行交易的规定。但是，该规定不会在一夜之间通过。这意味着，一旦该法律生效，投资者将获得3-6个月的过渡期，以完全清算其投资。 -Coingape 02/13/2021 

Cathie Wood的ARK Investment Management在2020年第四季度将其持有的Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust（GBTC）的持有量增加了214万股，从而将其在市场领先的机构比特币投资工具中的持有量增加至731万股。 ARK持有的GBTC价值3.575亿美元。 --- Coindesk 2021年2月12日

These Are Some Signals You May Not Heard Of For Today's Stock Market Reversal 这是一些你可能没听过导致股市反转的信号

Major US stock indexes opened up then reverse down sharply as Tesla (TSLA) stock is down by over 4%. One reason cited for TSLA sell off is 223,000 March $20 puts were bought for 2.5c (versus an open interest of only around 10,000 contracts).TSLA is such a gigantic stock now in the market, its plunge definitely drag the market down with it. Bitcoin price also down sharply by over $1400 as TSLA is now tie to Bitcoin since it owns $1.5B worth of it. Technically, TSLA has a Round Top Pattern and is not looking good, more profit taking on it are likely. If major stock indexes and TSLA closed down today, stock market correction begins. Even though TSLA going down seems to be the thing to blame for the market downturn, however there are many technicals and other signs are also suggesting a stock market reversal. These factors are:

1. Coming into today, the S&P 500 already were up 7 days in a row and yesterday is the smallest range day for the last 7 days, experience tells us that reversal is imminent. This signal is called NR7.

2. Including this morning's rise, the S&P 500 has risen 8 days in a row. 8 is a Fibonacci number, and its significant can not be ignored and its also a sign for a reversal.

3. We are close to New Moon day which is February 11 (tomorrow), New Moon day frequently reverses market.

4. We just got into the Spring Equinox period, the change of season usually brings change to the market.

5. Today February 10 is when six stars aligned on a straight line according to astrologists, that in history usually usher in bad events.

6. Technically, a Bearish Engulfing pattern has formed on the S&P 500 chart. This signifies a downside  reversal.

美国主要股指开盘上升，之后大幅回落，因为特斯拉（TSLA）股票下跌超过4％。 TSLA现在是市场上如此庞大的股票，其暴跌无疑会拖累市场。比特币价格也急剧下跌了超过$ 1400，因为TSLA现在已与比特币挂钩，因为它拥有价值15亿美元的比特币。TSLA被抛售的一个原因是223,000张3月份20美元目标价的看跌期权以2.5c的价格被买入（在此之前大约只有10,000张未平仓合约）。从技术上讲，TSLA已成立了圆形顶图形，看来不妙，可能会因此导致更多的获利回吐抛售。假如今天主要股指及TSLA收低则美股下跌调整开始。尽管TSLA下跌似乎是造成市场下滑的原因，但技术面和其他迹象也显示股市会出现反转。这些因素是：

1.进入今天，标准普尔500指数已经连续7天上涨，而昨天是过去7天中最小的波动日，经验告诉我们，反转即将来临。该信号称为NR7。

2.包括今天上午的上涨在内，标准普尔500指数已连续8天上涨。 8是斐波那契数字，它的有效性不容忽视，并且它是反转的信号。

3. 我们临近2月11日（明天）的新月日，新月日常常会导致市场反转。

4.我们刚进入春分期，季节的变化通常会给市场带来变化。

5.今天是2月10日，占星学家称是六星成一直线的一日，这在历史上通常会带来坏事。

6.从技术上讲，在标普500图表上已经形成了看跌吞噬格局。这意味着下行逆转。

Bitcoin At 44720 ALL Time High, What Next? 比特币创历史新高44270，跟着会如何？

Bitcoin surged to all time high today on Tesla's (TSLA) buying $1.5 Billion (about 8% of its cash reserve) Bitcoin and may accept bitcoin for payment. At 2:40 PM Pacific Time, Bitcoin rose $6155 (+15.78%) to $44720 eclipsing the previous high $42000. I saw this coming couple months ago as billionaires, hedge funds, endowment funds, insurance companies, and corporations such as Square (SQ) and Microstrategy (MSTR) were getting into Bitcoin, while Square (SQ), PayPal ({YPL) and Robinhood all offer Bitcoin trading. Repuatble economist Mohamed El-Erian said "this (Tesla buying Bitcoin) helps legitimize its (bitcoin) standing as a real currency and provides a real boost to investors". Investors piled into bitcoin , other cryto-currencies and bitcoin related stocks. Crypto currencies such as Etherium (ETH), Light Coin (LTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose 6%, 10% and 7% respectively while Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC),  Marathon Patent Group (MARA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) closed up 20%,42% and 40% respectively. It is going to be very bullish for Bitcoin as investors are now expecting many corporations are going to follow the leaders and put some of their reserve cash into Bitcoin. More and more corporate announcements are to be expected and the next big one could be Apple (AAPL). Base on technical analysis, the immediate target for this run up on Bitcoin is $52000 and may be higher.

Today's Bitcoin news:

1. Tesla annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the year ending Dec. 31, 2020, the firm said that under its new investment policy it has "invested an aggregate $1.50 billion inbitcoin... and may acquire and hold digital assets from time to time or long term."  The policy includes investment in "alternative reserve assets including digital assets, gold bullion, gold exchange-traded funds and other assets." Tesla also expects to begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for its products "in the near future." This would initially be on a "limited basis, which we may or may not liquidate upon receipt." ---Coindesk 02/08/2021

2. Elon Musk’s deeper foray into bitcoin helps legitimize its standing as a real currency and provides a real boost to investors, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian said Monday. ---CNBC 02/08/2021

3. Hedge fund legend Bill Miller is exhibiting an even larger appetite for Bitcoin (BTC). According to a Friday filingwith the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, The Miller Opportunity Trust is seeking indirect exposure to BTC via the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Bill Miller is set to increase his Bitcoin exposure by plowing 15% of one of his portfolios to buy Grayscale BitcoinTrust shares. ---Cointelegraph 02/08/2021

4. Apple Inc, the mobile technology giant could follow in the footsteps of Tesla and MicroStrategy to add Bitcoin to its treasury as per RBC Capital Markets.Apple became the first company to achieve $1 trillion treasury value two years back, and are actively looking to expand its range of products and services. RBC Markets analyst Mitch Steves in a note to the clients wrote that Apple could very well develop a crypto custody wallet and run a crypto exchange. ---Coingape 02/08/2021

由于特斯拉（TSLA）购买了15亿美元（约占其现金储备的8％）的比特币并可能接受比特币付款，比特币今天飙升至历史新高。太平洋时间下午2:40，比特币上涨6155美元（+ 15.78％）至44720美元，超过之前的高点42000美元。我在几个月前就看到了比特币的潜力， 因为亿万富翁，对冲基金，捐赠基金，保险公司以及Square（SQ）和Microstrategy（MSTR）等公司正在进入比特币，而Square，PayPal和Robinhood都提供比特币交易。著名的经济学家穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）说：“这（特斯拉购买比特币）有助于使其（比特币）作为一种真实货币的合法化，并为投资者提供了真正的推动力”。投资者今天大量涌入比特币，其他加密货币和比特币相关股票。以太坊（ETH），轻币（LTC）和比特币现金（BCH）等加密货币分别上涨6％，10％和7％，而灰度比特币信托（GBTC），马拉松专利集团（MARA）和Riot区块链（RIOT）分别上涨20％，42％和40％。对于比特币来说，这将是非常看涨的，因为投资者现在期望许多公司将跟随将它们部分现金储备投入比特币。预计会有越来越多的公司会公告购买比特币的消息，下一个重要的公告可能是来自苹果（AAPL）。根据技术分析，比特币这波上涨的目标是52000美元并或会更高。

 今天的比特币新闻：

 1.特斯拉向美国证券交易委员会提交的截至2020年12月31日的年度报告称，根据新的投资政策，特斯拉“已投资总计15亿美元进入比特币……并可能不时购买并持有数字货币或作为长期的资产。”该政策包括对“另类储备资产的投资，包括数字资产，金条，黄金交易所买卖基金和其他资产”。特斯拉还希望“在不久的将来”开始接受比特币作为其产品的付款方式。最初这将是“有限的，我们在收到比特币后可能会或可能不会卖出”。 --- Coindesk 02/08/2021 

2.安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）周一表示，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）对比特币的更深入研究有助于使其作为真实货币的地位合法化，并为投资者带来真正的提振。 --CNBC 02/08/2021 

3.对冲基金传奇人物比尔·米勒（Bill Miller）对比特币（BTC）的需求更大。根据美国证券交易委员会周五提交的文件，米勒机会信托正在寻求通过Grayscale Bitcoin Trust间接入市比特币. Bill Miller将其投资组合中的15％来购买Grayscale以增加其比特币投资。---Cointelegraph 2021年2月8日 

4.根据RBC Capital Markets，移动技术巨头苹果公司可能跟随特斯拉和MicroStrategy的脚步，在其处被中买入比特币。两年前，苹果公司成为第一家实现1万亿美元是值的公司，并积极寻求扩大产品和服务范围。加拿大皇家银行市场分析师米奇·史蒂夫斯（Mitch Steves）在给客户的一份报告中写道，苹果公司可以很好地开发加密货币托管钱包并进行加密货币交易。---Coingape 02/08/2021

What A Beautiful Chart 这图真漂亮

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF （UVXY 14.64）
The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one and one-half times (1.5x) the performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index for a single day. The index seeks to offer exposure to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is designed to measure the implied volatility of the S&P 500 over 30 days in the future.

UVXY has been on a downtrend after a 994% surge in four weeks as the stock market sank due to the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in February 2020. It dropped to all time low of 10 in the middle of January 2021, even lower than the 10.40 low made in January 2020. It then surged by 46.4% last week from the low with heavy volume and formed a momentous impulse pattern. This type of move usually signifies the beginning of a bigger surge to follow. Whether it can move as big as March 2020 is still to be seen, but it sure looks likely that rising to 20 to 27 area is very doable in the near term.

ProShares Ultra VIX短期期货ETF（UVXY 14.64）

该投资寻求不计费用和支出的每日投资结果，该结果相当于一天之内标普500 VIX短期期货指数表现的1.5倍。该指数旨在通过公开交易的期货市场提供市场波动的参与，旨在衡量标准普尔500指数在未来30天的隐含波动率。

由于股票市场因2020年2月开始的Covid-19病毒大流行开始而导致的急跌，UVXY在四周内上涨994％，之后一直处于下降趋势。在2021年1月中旬，UVXY跌至历史最低点10，甚至更低于2020年1月创下的10.40低点。上周UVXY以巨大交易量从低点飙升了46.4％，形成了明显的冲动式向上格局。这种类型的举动通常预示着随之而来的更大上升浪潮的开始。它能否像2020年2月开始的上升浪那么大还有待观察，但可以肯定的是，在短期内升至20至27区是很可行的。