A Way To Play The Interest Rate Up Turn 一种参与利率上升获利的投资

As more and more people getting vaccinated, economic growth is expected to increase as more and more business open up. How ever, the negative come with economic growth is interest rate trending higher. The Treasury Yield trend is precursor to interest rate trend. Treasury Yields bottomed in August 2020 and have been rising and the up trend started to accelerate at the start of 2021. The 10 Year Treasury Yield bottomed at 0.31% last August and it is now at 1.30% (a 319% increase) as of today. The sharp jump from 1.20% to 1.30% today caught investors notice and the stock market got dragged down from the morning rally. Everybody know that interest rate cannot be kept low forever, and the rise has already started. Higher interest rate is going to be bad for stocks especially the large cap growth stocks and hence decrease in stock market return. Making money in the stock market is not going to be easy during high interest rate environment. 

However, one way to make money when interest rate rises is to buy TBT (the opposite of TLT).  This is a way to participate on the downtrend of long term US treasury bonds. It is described as  follows:

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT 19.29): The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. The fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index includes publicly-issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years and have $300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve. The fund is non-diversified.

随着越来越多的人开始接种疫苗，随着越来越多的企业开业，经济增长有望提高。但是，经济增长带来的负面影响是利率趋于上升。国债收益率趋势是利率趋势的先兆。美国国债收益率在2020年8月触底，并一直在上升，上升趋势在2021年初开始加速。十年期美国国债收益率在去年8月跌至0.31％的谷底，而今天则已是1.30％（涨幅319％）。今天从1.20％急剧上涨至1.30％引起了投资者的注意，股市也从早盘的高位被拖累下跌。每个人都知道，利率不可能永远保持低位，现在上升已经开始。高的利率将不利于股票，尤其是大的成长型股票，而股票市场的回报也会因而减小。在利率上升的环境下，在股市上赚钱将会不容易。

不过利率上升时赚钱的一种方法是购买TBT (与TLT相反）。这是参与长期美国国债下跌获利的一种方法。 TBT的描述如下：

 ProShares 20年以上国库券看跌ETF（TBT 19.29）：此项投资寻求的每日投资结果（扣除费用和支出之前）是ICE美国20年以上国库券指数每日表现的相反的两倍（-2x）。基金投资于ProShare Advisors认为可以组合产生与基金投资目标一致的每日收益的金融工具。该指数包括公开发行的，期限在20年以上，剩余面值为3亿美元或以上，不包括美联储持有的美国国债。基金是非多元化的。