ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK 138.32)
The investment seeks long-term growth of capital. The fund is an actively-managed exchange-traded fund ("ETF") that will invest under normal circumstances primarily (at least 65% of its assets) in domestic and foreign equity securities of companies that are relevant to the fund's investment theme of disruptive innovation. Its investments in foreign equity securities will be in both developed and emerging markets. It may invest in foreign securities (including investments in American Depositary Receipts ("ADRs") and Global Depositary Receipts ("GDRs")) and securities listed on local foreign exchanges. The fund is non-diversified.
The fund's holding include: TSLA, ROKU, SQ, TDOC, NVTA, Z, SPOT, PRLB, PSTG, EDIT, BIDU, NTLA,EXAS, TWLO, IOVA, TWST, DOCU, MTLS,PYPL, TREE, TWOU, PD, ICE, ZM, VCYT, PACB, IRDM, MCRB, SE, SPLK, SNPS, PINS, NSTG, TXG, HUYA, CERS, SYRS, NVS, REGN, FATE, ONVO.
I have gone through all the above stocks ARKW is holding and here are what I found that are alarming and are reasons to sell.
1. ARKK has broken below its 50 day moving average and is in a down trend.
2. Out of the 41 stocks, there are 23 stocks that are trading below their 50 day moving average. This means these 23 stocks are in down trends.
3. 19 stocks don't have Forward PE, meaning they are not making money yet. For those stocks with PE, the average PE is 752! Take away the most outrage PE of 9782, the average PE is still 351! The Forward PE for S&P 500 is only around 40 and is already considered very high.
4. There are 24 stocks that gain 100% in the last 12 months. 11 of these stocks gain over 200%, 6 gain over 300%, 3 gain over 400%, 1 gain over 800%. The 12 month gain for S&P 500 is only 20%.
5. Since Cathie Wood is so popular around individual investors, what ever she buy these investors will follow. These indiscriminate purchases sure help to artificially push up stocks and added emotional premium to a certain degree.
6. ARKK's top holding is TSLA and it has been targeted to sell along with other big cap tech stocks. TSLA trend is down since it has solidly broken below its 50 day moving average.
7. The holdings in ARKK are high growth stocks. During time of inflation and increasing interest rate, growth stock are likely to be sold in favor of valued and low PE stocks.
8. ARKK was established at the right time when investors are chasing momentum regardless of fundamentals. As old saying says: Timing makes heroes. That time is over and 2021 will likely be the year these high flyers will get kill as PE gets normalized.
9. Following are 41 charts for your references:
ARKK是凯蒂·伍德（Cathie Wood）经营的一种极受欢迎的ETF。自2020年3月以来，ARKK上涨了326％，而过去12个月上涨了152％。同期，标普500指数仅分别上涨79％和20％。投资者关注结果，这样的好回报就是为什么ARKK如此受欢迎的原因。以下是ARKK的说明。
ARK创新ETF（ARKK 138.32）
该投资寻求资本的长期增长。该基金是一种积极管理的交易所买卖基金（“ ETF”），在正常情况下将主要（至少占其资产的65％）投资于与该基金的创新性投资主题相关的公司的国内外股票证券。它对外国股票证券的投资将同时在发达和新兴市场。它可能投资于外国证券（包括对美国存托凭证（“ ADR”）和全球存托凭证（“ GDR”）的投资）以及在当地外汇交易所上市的证券。该基金是非多元化的。
基金持有的股票包括：TSLA，ROKU，SQ，TDOC，NVTA，Z，SPOT，PRLB，PSTG，EDIT，BIDU，NTLA，EXAS，TWLO，IOVA，TWST，DOCU，MTLS，PYPL，TREE，TWOU，PD，ICE ，ZM，VCYT，PACB，IRDM，MCRB，SE，SPLK，SNPS，PINS，NSTG，TXG，HUYA，CERS，SYRS，NVS，REGN，FATE，ONVO。
我查阅了ARKK持有的上述所有股票，下面就是我发现的令人震惊的情况，也是该卖出ARKK的原因。
1. ARKK已跌破其50天移动平均线，并处于下跌趋势中。
2.在41只股票中，有23只股票的交易价格已低于它们的50天移动平均线。这意味着这23只股票已在下跌趋势。
3. 19只股票没有前瞻市盈率，这意味着它们还没有赚钱。对于拥有PE的股票来说，平均PE是752！拿走9782最高的PE，平均PE仍然是351！标普500的前瞻PE仅为40左右，已经被认为很高了。
4.有24只股票在过去12个月上涨了100％。其中11只股票的涨幅超过200％，6只股票的涨幅超过300％，3只股票的涨幅超过400％，1只股票的涨幅超过800％。标普500指数12个月涨幅仅为20％。
5.由于凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）在个人投资者中非常受欢迎，因此这些投资者也跟进她买入的股票。这些不加选择的购买肯定有助于推动股票上升而加进了一定程度的情绪溢价。
6. ARKK的最大持股是TSLA，它最近与其他大型科技股一样是被抛售的目标。 TSLA趋势已稳固地跌破50天移动平均线，因此下跌趋势已成。这必然会拖累ARKK。
7. ARKK持有的股票都是高增长股票。在通货膨胀和利率上升期间，增长型股票可能会被抛售，而偏向买入价值合理和低PE股票。
8. ARKK因成立合时而成功。那时是无论基本面如何，投资者都因动力而追赶势头的时候。俗话说：时势造英雄。这段时间已经过去，随着PE的正常化，这些升得多的股票可能会在2021年大跌。
9. 下面是所有41只股票的图表以供参考：
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