Dow Looks Ready to Break Down 道指看来在崩溃边缘

The US stock market has been volatile since end of July. Since July 31, the highest daily Dow range is 736 and the low daily range is 315 and the 11 day average is 485. The Dow tested its 200 day moving average at 25585 the third time during the last 1 1/2 weeks. The first two tests attracted buying and the Dow bounced off 25585.  But, this time it may not able to hold as weak reports on China's Industrial Production and German's GDP that caused US 10 year bond yield goes lower than that of the 2 year's which raised recession odd. Other worries are US/China trade war doesn't seem to end soon, unsettling Hong Kong situation and Argentina at risk of debt default and Pakistan/India on edge of war. Technically, if the Dow breaks below 25585 level , a bearish Reverse Cup And Handle pattern will be formed and the May low at 24680 will likely be tested. It would be down 9.9% from the all time high of 27398 to 24680.

自7月底以来，美国股市一直波动。 自7月31日到今天，道琼斯指数每日最大交易区间为736，最小交易区间为315，11日平均值为485。道琼斯指数在过去1 1/2周内第三次测试其200日均线25585。 前两次测试都吸引了买盘，道琼斯指数从25585反弹。但是，这次可能无法守稳因为中国工业生产和德国国内生产总值的疲软报告导致美国10年期债券收益率低于2年期债券收益率，着增加了经济衰退的可能性。 而美国/中国的贸易战看来不会很快结束，香港局势仍然不稳定，阿根廷面临债务违约和巴基斯坦/印度处于战争边缘的风险令人不安。 从技术面来看，如果道指跌破25585水平，将形成看跌的反向杯状形态，并可能测试5月低点24680。24680水平是从历史高点27398下跌9.9％。