1. NFLX daily chart shows that price is below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages, so its short, intermediate and long term trends are all down. It has entered a bear market since it dropped 30% from its high. It is the first FAANG stock that has entered a bear market.
2. NFLX weekly chart shows its next downside target is December 24 low at 231.
3. NFLX monthly chart shows a clear Double Top pattern. It likely trend towards its fibonacci support levels as shown in the blue lines. At which level it find support depends on its future fundamentals.
4. Competitions from Disney, AT&T, Apple and Amazon are diluting business and going to hurt Netflix.
5. High Debt/Equity ratio at 2.06 while the same ratio for DIS, AMZN, T and AAPL are 0.64, 0.76. 0.93 and 1.12 respectively. PEG is a very high 2.56 compare with 1.28 in the same industry.
6. In June and July of this year, 5 analysts raised NFLX price target to 440, 442, 380, 370 and 515 separately. NFLX has been down since the target raises, these targets may need to revise downward since the stock is now trading at 297.81 only.
7. Investors.com Composite Rating for NFLX is a failed fundamental grade at 50 and NFLX Accumulation/ Distribution Rating is E, the worst grade possible, indicates people are selling.
Disclosure: I own NFLX Put
Netflix(297.81)自2009年以来的回报率为6000%(从7左右到今年6月的历史最高点423点)。然而,它已经从高位下跌了近30%。股票已经见顶,看起来会有更多的下行空间:
1。NFLX日线图显示价格低于20日,50日和200日均线,因此其短期,中期和长期趋势均下跌。它已进入熊市因为它从高点已下跌了30%。这是第一只进入熊市的FAANG股票。
2。NFLX周线图显示其下一个下行目标是12月24日的低位231。
3。NFLX月线图表显示了明显的双顶模式。它将跌向蓝线所示的各个斐波那契支撑位。它在那个水平找到支撑取决于其未来的基本面发展。
4。迪士尼,AT&T,苹果和亚马逊加入这个行业的竞争将稀释生意对Netflix造成伤害。
5。债务/权益比率为2.06,而DIS,AMZN,T和AAPL的相同比率分别只为0.64, 0.76, 0.93和1.12。PEG 为很高的2.53, 同行业PEG只为1.28。
6。今年6月和7月间,5名分析师分别将NFLX的目标价格上调至440, 442, 380, 370和515。上调后NFLX便一直在跌,这些目标价都有可能被向下修正,因为该股目前的交易价格仅为297.81。
7. Investors.com NFLX的综合评分为50,这是不合格的基本面评分,而NFLX累积/分发评级为E级,是最差的级别,显示人们在卖股。
披露:我持有NFLX Put
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