Time To Bet Aggressively For The Market Downside? 是时候积极押注股市下行了吗？

The 4 major market indexes are up on average 0.7% today ignoring intensifying US/China trade war and yield curve inversion which points to recession. I believe today's market rise is technical related as the Dow bounce after hitting 200 day moving average support. Month end fund buying also helps. The Dow is now bounded by 200 day moving average support at 25615 and 20 day moving average resistance at 26022. The overall Dow trend is down.  The Dow is more likely resolve to the downside eventually.  If 26022 breaks, Dow goes towards June low 24680 (-10% from all time high) and December low 21712 （-21% from all time high). A curious thing is that even though the US stock market is moderately down today but VIX is relatively stable.  This indicates smart money is buying hedge. Looking back to the history of VIX price behavior, it literally can double in price in matter of days if the timing is right. For aggressive trader, it may be time to load up on VIX for great gains. Followings are negatives for the market to think about:

US/China Trade War Intensified
Both China and US retaliated on tariff hike on each other's products starting September and December.

Global economic slow down
German GDP and Chinese Industrial Production are weaker than expected. Fed chairman Powell express concern over deteriorating economy conditions on China and Germany.

Yield Curve Inversion
The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year rate fell to negative 5 basis points, its lowest level since 2007. This is called a yield curve inversion. Experts fear it because in the past it has preceded recessionary periods. 3-month Treasury bill rate also traded higher than the 30-year bond yield. The yield curve is doing something that it hasn't done in 12 years.

Investors Are Buying Hedges
Gold (GLD), Tresury Bonds (TLT) and Utility Stocks (XLU) are all up around 20% from start of this year. Fear gauge VIX is up over 60% since end of July this year.

Insider Selling
Corporate insiders have sold an average of $600 million of stock per day in August, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks stock market liquidity. August is on track to be the fifth month of the year in which insider selling tops $10 billion. Other times that has happened was 2006 and 2007, the period before the last bear market in stocks, TrimTabs said.

Weak FAANG Stocks
FAANG, the famous abbreviation for FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX and GOOG has been the key to market directions. Since they are big cap tech stocks, they lead and the general market follows. FAANG has been under performing the general market as these stocks on average have dropped around 13% from their all time high while the bench mark S&P 500 is only down 5% from its all time high.  It seems there is a lot the general market need to catch up on the downside. Perfomances for the FAANG stocks in bad to worst order are AAPL -7.4%, GOOG -7.9, FB -12,8%, AMZN -13.5% and NFLX -24.5%. FB and AMZN are in correction while NFLX are in full blown bear market.

今日4大主要市场指数平均上涨0.7％，无视美中贸易战加剧和收益率曲线反转(这指向经济衰退)。我认为今天的市场上涨与技术有关，因为道指触及200日均线支撑而反弹。月末基金买盘的支撑也有关系 。道琼斯指数现在受到200日均线支撑位25615和20日均线阻力位26022的影响。整体道指走势看跌。道指有可能最终决定下行。如果26022被击穿，导指则会走向6月低点24680 (从历史高位下跌10%）和12月低点21712（从历史高位下跌21%）。奇怪的是，即使今天美国股市有中等程度下跌，但VIX相对稳定。 这表明聪明的资金正在买入对冲。 回顾VIX价格行为的历史，如果看对时机，它实际上可以在几天内翻番。 对于激进的交易者来说，现在可能是时候买入VIX以期获得异乎寻常的收益。以下列出要关注对股市负面的因素：

美中贸易战加剧
从9月和12月开始，中国和美国都对双方产品增加关税进行互相报复。

全球经济放缓
德国GDP和中国工业生产均弱于预期。美联储主席鲍威尔对中国和德国经济状况恶化表示担忧。

收益率曲线倒挂
10年期国债收益率和2年期利率之间的利差降至负5个基点，为2007年以来的最低水平。这称为收益率曲线倒挂。专家们都为此担心，因为它过去曾经导致衰退。 3个月国库券利率也高于30年期国债收益率。收益率曲线正在做一些它在12年内没有做过的事情。

投资者正在购买避险产品
黄金（GLD），美国国债（TLT）和公用事业股票（XLU）均从今年年初开始上涨了约20％。恐惧指数VIX自今年7月底以来上涨了60％以上。

内幕人士抛售股票
根据跟踪股市流动性的TrimTabs Investment Research的数据，8月份企业内部人士每天平均售出6亿美元的股票。 8月有望成为年度内部销售额达到100亿美元的第五个月。 TrimTabs表示，其他时期有同样情况发生的是2006年和2007年，这是股市最后一次熊市之前的时期。

FAANG的弱势
FAANG，着名的FB，AAPL，AMZN，NFLX和GOOG的缩写代号 一直是市场方向的关键。由于它们是大型科技股，它们领先而整体市场会紧随其后。由于FAANG一直的表现都坏于整体市场表现，这些股票平均从历史高点下跌约13％，而标准普尔500指数从历史高点仅下跌了5％，大市若要要赶上FAANG的下行幅度，还需要跌得更多。FAANG股票表现从坏到最坏的排列顺序为AAPL -7.4％，GOOG -7.9，FB -12,8％，AMZN  -13.5％及NFLX -24.5％。 FB和AMZN均在修正中，而NFLX则处于全面熊市中。