Friday, August 16, 2019

Follow Up On GE GE的再跟进

GE (8.79)

Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos accused GE of deceiving fraudulent financial statements to cover up its problems in a 175-page "whistle-blower report" yesterday and the GE stock dropped 11% yesterday. After the accusation, GE CEO Larry Culp bought nearly $2 million worth of the company's stock on Thursday and denied fraud accusations (but this action is being forced and doesn't mean much). On top of that 2 analysts and short selling firm Citron also came out and defended the stock.  GE is up nearly 9% today. Will these reverse GE stock's down side fate ? I believe not and here are the reasons:

1.  When a famous whistleblower putting his creditability on line,wrote a 175 page report about GE's misbehavior, there must be something wrong even if the accusations may not be all true. Harry Markopolos is one of many to accuse GE of faulty accounting according to Herb Greenberg, Pacific Square Research, and Thomas Ajamie, Ajamie LLP.  DOJ and SEC have been looking into some of these accusations. This makes Harry Markopolos accusation more creditable.

2. Investors.com's Composite Rating for the stock is only 18 out of 99 and the Accumulation/ Distribution Rating is D-, A+is the best rating, both indicate a sell for the stock. Why would anybody want to buy this weak stock? Just because it's a big name? This big name stock lost 70% of its value from July 2016's
high of 29.33 to today's 8.79. Does it still worth trusting with this disaster performance?

3. GE stock traded between 9 and 11.75 range for 6 1/2 month. The breaking below this range is a severe technical blow to the stock, since 9 is now a brick wall resistance and will likely be tough to get through. Technically, it likely will go down and retest Aug 15, 2019 low of 7.65 then December 2018 low of 6.38.


Disclosure:I own GE Put.









GE (8.79)

马多夫(Madoff )举报人哈里马可波罗斯 (Harry Markopolos )昨天在其175页的“举报报告”中指责通用电气欺诈性财务报表以掩盖问题,通用电气股票昨日下跌了11%。在被指控之后,通用电气公司首席执行官拉里·卡尔普 (Larry Culp)周四购买了该公司近200万美元的股票,并否认了欺诈指控 (但此举是被迫的举动,不能代表什么)。除此之外,2位分析师和卖空公司Citron出来为该股进行了辩护。今天GE因而上涨了近9%。GE股票会继续反转向上吗?我相信不会,原因如下:

1. 当一位着名的告密者将他的信誉做抵押,写了一份175页的关于GE不当行为的报告,即使指控可能不全是真的,GE却一定有什么不妥。根据太平洋广场研究中心的Herb Greenberg和Ajamie LLP的Thomas Ajamie的说法,Harry Markopolos只是指控GE会计错误的众多人之一。司法部和美国证券交易委员会一直在调查其中的一些指控。这使Harry Markopolos的指控更加可信。

2. Investors.com对该股票的综合评分仅为18,而99为满分,累积/分发评级仅为D-,满分为A+,两者均表示该股票应该卖出。为什么有人要购买这种弱势股票呢?仅仅因为它是一个名牌公司吗?从2016年7月高点的29.33至今天的8.79,这个名牌公司的股价已经下跌了70% ,这么不好的表现还值得信任吗?

3. GE股票在过去的6个半月交易于9至11.75之间。跌穿该区间的下限价位是对该股的严重技术破坏,因为9现在就好像一堵砖墙,是很难超越的阻力。从技术上讲,它可能再会下跌并重新测试2019年8月15日的低点7.65,然后测试2018年12月的低点6.38。


披露:我持有GE Put。







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