Stock Market Trend Is Down But Will Bounce First 股市趋势向下但将首先反弹

The US stock market has been volatile for the last few days but it also has created a clear trading
environment. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all have dropped about 5% from their all time high levels and are below their 20 and 50 day moving averages.  So it is easy to say that the US stock market trend has now reversed from up to down. Market strategy is to sell on rallies. All 3 major market indexes are now bounded by 200 and 50 day moving averages and the market will likely trade within these levels short term.  Since the Dow has touched and bounced off its 200 day moving average 25560 level twice, it is only natural for it to bounce towards 50 day moving average 26502. Due to the big downside momentum generated since the end of July, the worsening US/China trade war and the concern over global economy, it is not likely it can recover above 50 day moving average. Before challenging its 50 day moving average ,there are 38%, 50% fibonacci resistances to overcome. It is more likely that the 200 day moving average level will be test and broken soon after a brief bounce, it may then proceed to test its May low at 24680. The above described possible move for the Dow. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite movements should be similar as in the following charts.

美国股市在过去几天一直很波动，但它也创造了一个明确的交易环境。道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均从历史高点回落约5％，并且低于20日和50日移动均线。所以很容易说美国股市的走势现在已经从上到下逆转。市场策略是逢高卖出。所有3个主要市场指数现在都处于200和50日均线之间，市场短期内会在这些水平内交易。由于道琼斯指数曾两次触及200天移动平均线25560水平，因此自然地会向50日移动平均线26502反弹。由于7月底以来产生的巨大下行势头，美国/中国日益恶化的贸易战和对全球经济的担忧，它恢复到50日均线以上的可能性不大。在挑战其50天移动平均线之前，它还需要克服38％，50％的斐波纳契阻力。 相信200天移动平均线水平更有可能在短暂反弹后很快会再被测试和被击破，而下探5月份低价24680。上面描述了道指可能的走势。 标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数走势也应该相似,请参考下图。