The two triggers that may cause the stock market to top out are Apple (AAPL) and the S&P 500 Index.
Nothing are more important than these two for now because they are at critical points.
Clueless stock chasing investors have been pushing Apple stock higher 7 days in a row with no incremental good news after its earning report. The driver is probably the expectation of a 1 to 4 stock split. The split has really has no material goodness to it except psychological any way. However, I see the more AAPL goes up, the more risky AAPL and the stock market are. I can't help to emphasize again how worrisome this is. Since Apple's capitalization is the largest and it has been leading the market up, any hiccup on its stock will also drag the market down. The problem is most of the valuation metrics are at extreme values and pointing to a bubbly Apple stock price and the bubble may pop at any time. These metrics are:
1. Apple's trailing PE is 34.51 while during the past 13 years, Apple's highest P/E Ratio was 34.51. The lowest was 9.32. And the median was 15.61. This ratio is at 13 year high. ( Source Gurufocus)
2. Apple's Price/Book is at 26.27 while during the past 13 years, Apple's highest P/B Ratio was 26.96. The lowest was 2.73. And the median was 5.43. This ratio is very close to 13 year high. ( Source Gurufocus)
3. Apple's Price/Sales is 6.45 while during the past 13 years, Apple's highest P/S Ratio was 7.28. The lowest was 2.19. And the median was 3.53. This ration is very close to 13 year high. ( Source Gurufocus)
4. Apple's Price/Free Cash Flow is 29.96 while during the past 13 years, Apple's highest Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow Ratio was 29.96. The lowest was 8.40. And the median was 13.33. This ratio is at 13 year high.( Source Gurufocus)
Also, Apple's stock price is 132% above it's 200 day moving average. In the last 10 year there were 4 big corrections ranging from 35 to 45% and the average percentage above it's 200 day moving average is 95% before the corrections started.
AAPL's latest leg up is a gain of 112% in 5 months, it's the fastest and steepest climb in the last 10 years. AAPL basically moved up vertically in its latest up move, as technical jargons says, when chart goes vertical, its time to come down.
As for the S&P 500 index, it is going to be the 2nd major market index that may reach all time high in the near term since it's 1.3 % away. If it is this close, it will likely going to touch it. Whether it can breakout is another thing. The sharp V turn up for the last 5 months has been a tremendous effort. It is possible that exhaustion of upside momentum may happen after the big run as it hits major resistance (all time high). A lot of good news are needed for it to move through the all time high. It is not likely it can get through on the first try. If the S&P 500 is not able to get through its all time high, and the formation of a Double Top pattern may trigger downside correction. The vertical rise during the last 5 months may also means time to rest and correct down. It is hard to go against gravity. Aren't the sharp drop in the US dollar, surging Gold, Silver and Bitcoin prices and rallying Treasury telling us some thing bad is coming?
When you see stocks move up relentlessly for a long time, it is time to be cautious. We only know stock market is close to a top but we don't know when. Remember, bad things usually arrive unannounced. Before the stock market crashes in 1987, 2000 and 2008 I personally experienced, the stock market was soaring and there was no sign of it going down. It is now time to protect your profits, not to be greedy and chase stocks up. Don't be penny wise and pound foolish! Good Luck！
悬而未决的国会第二轮刺激计划消息以及明天7月非农就业报告似乎都在推动股市今天走高。尽管重要 新闻发布前股市大升不是一个好现象。不过，无论这两个消息的结果如何，股市仍然有见顶的风险。
可能导致股市见顶的两条导火线是苹果（AAPL）和标准普尔500指数。目前，没有什么比这两个更重要的了，因为它们都处于关键时刻。
不顾一切追逐股票的投资者连续7天推高苹果股票，而在其财报告发布后，却并没有增量的好消息。推动上升的因素可能是对股票要1对4分股的期望。其实分股除了心理感觉好之外并没有任何实质的好处。当我看到APPL上涨得越多而AAPL和股票市场的风险就越大时，我不禁要再次强调这是多么令人担忧。由于苹果的市值是最大的，而且一直引领着市场的上涨，因此，假如苹果股票有任何问题就会拖累市场。问题在于，苹果大多数价值指标都已达到极高的值，令苹果股票有泡沫的感觉，而且泡沫随时可能爆破。这些价值指标是：
1.苹果的市盈率为34.51，而过去13年中，苹果的最高市盈率为34.51。最低是9.32。中位数为15.61。这个比率已是13年来最高值。 （源自Gurufocus）
2.苹果的股价/帐面价值比率为26.27，而在过去的13年中，苹果的最高股价/帐面价值比率是26.96。最低是2.73。中位数为5.43。这个比例已非常接近13年高点。 （源自Gurufocus）
3.苹果的价格/销售比率为6.45，而在过去的13年中，苹果的最价格/销售比率为7.28。最低是2.19。中位数为3.53。该比率非常接近13年高值。 （源自Gurufocus）
4.苹果的价格/自由现金流比率为29.96，而在过去13年中，苹果的最高价格与自由现金流比率为29.96。最低的是8.40。中位数为13.33。这个比率已是13年高值。 （源自Gurufocus）
另外，苹果的股价比200天移动平均线高出132％。在过去的10年中苹果有4次较大的修正，幅度从35％到45％，而在开始大修正之前，股价高于200天移动平均线的平均百分比为95％。
AAPL的最近一次涨幅是5个月内上涨112％，这是过去10年来最快，最陡峭的涨幅。AAPL基本上是不管地心引力而垂直上涨的，技术交易术语有说，当图表垂直时，就是时候下来了。
至于标准普尔500指数，无可否认它将成为第二个到达历史新高的主要市场指数，因为它相距高位只差1.3％了，因此极可能在短期内就达到历史新高。这是既然就在附近，不妨上去碰碰的道理。但它能否突破是另一回事。过去5个月的急转弯上升已是一项巨大的努力。大升之后，当它遇到主要阻力（历史最高水平）时，上升动力可能会耗尽而无力突破。它需要很大的好消息才能越过。第一次尝试不太可能成功。如果标准普尔500指数未能突破其历史最高水平，那么双顶形态的形成可能会触发下行修正。经过最近5个月的垂直上升后市场一方面难与地心引力抗衡，也需要休息和修正的时间。另外，美元的急剧下跌，黄金，白银和比特币的价格飙升以及美国国债的上涨是否告诉我们即将有坏事发生呢，难道不是吗？
当您看到股票长期持续上涨时，就该变得谨慎了。我们只知道股市接近见顶，但我们不知道何时。记住，坏事通常是在没有通告的情况下到来的。我经历过的1987年，2000年和2008年股市崩盘之前，股市都在疯涨而毫无要下来的迹象的。现在是保护利润而不是贪婪追逐股票的时候， 不要因小失大! 祝好运！
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