UVXY Has Buy Signal And Market Correction Is Near UVXY有买入信号，市场下跌整理已近

As Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) continues to rise after split today, the majority of the stock in S&P 500 stocks are down. There're only one out of eleven S&P 500 sectors are up. The positive sector is Healthcare. Among the 4 major market indexes only the Nasdaq Composite is up while the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are all down. Market breath is getting narrower and narrower, and it looks trouble is approaching for the market. The Fear Gauge VIX and its ETF UVXY has been behaving abnormally by going up with the stock market since last Thursday (August 27), this kind of divergence is indicative of market drop is near. On August 27, UVXY was up 4.5% and the trading volume is second only to the trading volume of February 27's.  UVXY surged and the stock market plunged after February 27th. As of August  27th, UVXY got a CCI buy signal. 

Other risky factors for the stock market are: 

1. The price surge of AAPL and TSLA is euphoric and hard sustain.

2. Put options buying on both the indexes and stocks have risen sharply since August 28. These indicate traders are getting ready for the market down turn.

3. The S&P 500 forward PE is near historical high. This means stocks are overvalued.

Source Bloomberg

4. The Buffet Indicator is never this high before. This means stocks are way overvalued.

Source Bloomberg

5. Trump plans to ban the use of Wehat in about a month, if Apple is forced to pull WeChat from its APP Store, new iPhone sales may drop sharply. 

6. US Election is only 2 months away, market think Biden win may be bad for the stock market. I think it's even worse if Trump win since his hard stand towards China is bad for the economy and the stock market. So it may be a lose lose situation no matter who wins.

尽管苹果（AAPL）和特斯拉（TSLA）在今天分股后继续上涨，标准普尔500中的大多数股票都在下跌。标准普尔500指数的11个板块中只有1个上升。这上升的板块是医疗保健。在四个主要市场指数中，只有纳斯达克综合指数上涨，而道指，标普500和罗素2000均下跌。市场的广度越来越窄，看起来市场的麻烦越来越大。自上周四（8月27日）以来，恐慌指数 VIX及其ETF UVXY 一直表现异常，股市涨恐慌指标也涨，这种一场现象显示市场下跌整理已临近。 8月27日，UVXY上涨4.5％，交易量很大，仅次于2月27日的交易量。而 2月27日之后，UVXY飙升，股市暴跌。自8月27日，UVXY已收到CCI买入信号。

股票市场的其他风险因素是：

1. AAPL和TSLA的价格飙升是不顾一切的，极度超买的，很难维持。

2.自8月28日以来，指数和股票的看跌期权购买量均急剧上升。这表明交易者已为市场下跌做准备。

3.标普500前瞻PE接近历史高位，显示股票估值过高。

源自Bloomberg

4. 巴菲特指标从未如此之高，显示股票估值极度过高。

源自Bloomberg

5.特朗普计划在大约一个月后禁止使用Wehat，如果苹果被迫从其App Store中撤出WeChat App，新iPhone的销量可能会急剧下降。

6.距离美国大选只有两个月的时间了，市场认定拜登的胜利可能对股市不利。 我认为，如果特朗普获胜，那就更糟了，因为他对中国的强硬立场对经济和股市都不利。 因此，无论谁获胜，这可能对股市都是一个双输的局面。