First, the trailing 12 month PE is at 34 much higher than its average 15. Second, its Price to Book Ratio is 26 ,compare with those of high flying stocks such as TSLA 's 28, NFLX's 24, AMZN's 21,MSFT's 14, FB's7 and GOOG's 5. How AAPL's valuation is approaching valuation of the ridiculous TSLA all of a sudden? It is insane! Human emotion and believing stock will never come down are the reason why. This kind of action can not be sustained and likely usher disaster. I have seen it before the crashes of 1987, 2000 and 2008. Another metric that tells me AAPL's rise cannot be sustained is the percentage the stock price is above its 200 day moving average. In the last 10 years, AAPL has experienced 4 big corrections and they are in some degree related to price moving too far above its 200 day moving average. The average percentage above its 200 day moving average is 95% before a big correction, and it is now at 124%.
Source Macrotrend
Year %over 200DMA %drop afterward
2012 132% -45%
2015 67% -41%
2018 79% -39%
2020 Feb 95% -35%
Now 124% -?%
The AAPL trade is too crowed, its valuation is at extreme and its too far away from its 200 day moving average, avoid!
自今年三月低点以来，苹果（AAPL）上涨了107％！这将其估值推高至极限水平。首先，12个月的市盈率为34比其平均水平15高出一倍以上。其次，其股价对帐面价值比率是26，与TSLA的28，NFLX的24，AMZN的21，MSFT的14，FB的7和GOOG的5等大型科技动力股的比率相比居然是如此之高。突然之间，AAPL的估值如何接近荒谬的TSLA的估值的呢？太疯狂了！人们的高涨情绪认为股市不会下跌的想法是主要原因。这种情况将无法持久而会带来灾难。我在1987年，2000年和2008年的大跌之前都看到这种疯狂表现。另一个告诉我AAPL涨势无法持续的指标是股价高于其200天移动平均线的百分比。在过去的10年中，AAPL经历了4次大修正，它们在某种程度上与价格远远高于其200天移动平均线有关。最近4次大跌前股价超过200日移动平均线的平均百分比为95%, 而现在是124%。
源自Macrotrend
年份 超过200DMA百分比 之后股票下跌百分比
2012 132％ -45％
2015 67％ -41％
2018 79％ -39％
2020 2月 95％ -35％
Now 124% -?%
AAPL股票交易太过拥挤，它的估值太高及离200天移动平均线太远了，避免！
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