Thursday, August 20, 2020

Horrific Charts:TSLA, NVDA, AAPL 恐怖图表:TSLA,NVDA,AAPL

I can not think of any reason chasing the high flying stocks such as Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) at these levels. The thought of these stocks will never come down is pure ignorant.  The higher these stocks move up the more dangerous they will be.  I am seeing emotional and euphoric buying of these stocks and feel that the climax is near. Through my over 40 years in the financial markets, whenever I see assets are being chased like this, a sharp fall is near. History will repeat itself, and this time will be no exception. It will happen, It is only a matter of when.  It will come unannounced, and this is the time to prepare for the worst. 

Fundamentally, these stocks are way overvalued based on extremely high PE, Price to Book, Price to Sales , Price to Free Cash Flow...Etc.  Their technicals are also at extremes. The price moves since 2019 lows are 1030%, 268% and 240% for TSLA, NVDA and AAPL respectively. Their prices are very stretched. The way to measured that is by measuring the percentage of these stock prices over their 20 period moving averages and they are 255%, 102% and 80% for TSLA, NVDA and AAPL respectively. These percentages are the highest ever for these stocks.The monthly charts for these stocks look horrific. The consecutive multi-month vertical moves up are defying gravity and are not sustainable. When both fundamentals and technicals are bad, big downside corrections are unavoidable. Be careful, don't chase if you are not in yet. Don't try to make money under such dangerous environment. If you own these stocks, congratulation,  take your profits and run before you regret it. Good Luck!









我想不出有什么理由在这些水平上追逐特斯拉(TSLA),英伟达(NVDA)和苹果(AAPL)等飞速上涨已久的股票。这些股票永远不会下跌的想法纯属无知。这些股票上涨得越高,它们将越危险。当我看到这些股票的情绪化和不顾一切的追买时,感觉到购买高潮已经临近。在我从事金融市场40多年的过程中,每当我看到像这样疯狂追逐资产时,大跌即将来临。历史会重演,这次不会例外。它一定会发生,这仅是时间的问题。它将会不宣而至,所以这是时候为最坏的情况做准备了。

从基本面上说,这些股票的价值由于极高的市盈率,市净率,价格/销售,价格/自由现金流等而被过份高估。它们在技术面方面也很极端。自2019年低点以来,TSLA,NVDA和AAPL的价格上升了分别为1030%,268%和240%。他们的价格已经涨得非常过份。过份的衡量方法是通过测量这些股票价格高于其20个周期移动平均线的百分比,TSLA,NVDA和AAPL分别为255%,102%和80%。这些百分比是这些股票有史以来最高的。这些股票的月线图表看起来非常恐怖。连续数月的与地心引力作对而垂直上升,这是不可以持续的。当基本面和技术面都不好的时候,大的下行修正将不可避免的。请注意,如果您尚未入场,请不要追逐。不要在这种危险的环境下逐利。如果您拥有这些股票,那么恭喜您,获利退出,免得以后后悔。祝好运!







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