Coming into today in the stock market, investors are focus on whether Apple (AAPL) can make it to $2 trillion capitalization at 467 price level and after S&P 500 made historic closing high at 3386 yesterday, investors are anticipating that it will hit historic intraday high today above the 3393 level. Both the above mentioned goals were reached today with AAPL hitting an intraday high at 468.65 and S&P 500 hitting an intraday high of 3399.54. However, major market indexes were starting to sell off and closed red at the close. Following are the reasons for the sell off:
1. AAPL is very stretched as it has risen over 57% this year and 120% during the last 1 year. It's forward PE is near 30 with next year earning growth rate of only 19.6%. It is over fair value by 53%. It is at fair value only if PE=growth. AAPL's Price to Book ratio is 27 while the average P/B for S&P 500 is around 3. P/B is way high. 467 is Apple's $2T capitalization psychological price resistance. Since it couldn't immediately surpass this resistance and stock is overvalued， a sell off ensued and the market followed .
2. As for the S&P 500, its 3393 historical high was its resistance. Even though it rose above it earlier today but was not able to hold, a sell off ensued. When a market hit all time high, it usually come down and take a rest.
3. Federal Reserve released its last meeting minutes at 11 AM Pacific Time. The high lights are as follows:
a. Officials agreed that the on going public health crisis would weigh heavily on economic activities, employment and inflation in the near term and was posing considerable risks to the economy over the medium term.
b. Officials said they worried about risks to the financial system. Even though the banks are in good shape now but might change if the virus spread persists.
c. Officials also express concern about the level of public debts.
d. Officials voiced skepticism about the usefulness of yield caps.
e. Officials are surprised by the strength in household spending in the wake of the economic crash and business uncertainty.
The over all worry about the economy due to pandemic and the skepticism of usefulness of keeping rates low raised investors concern and triggered a market sell off.
4. The other financial assets reacted sharply to Fed's meeting minute. US dollar surged 0.85, 30 Year Treasury yield was up 1.22%, gold was down over $80, Silver was down $1.55. Higher US dollar and higher Treasury yield are negatives for stocks.
After the market close, Nvidia reported better than expected earning and revenues and guided next quarter higher. Stock sold off 10.53 (2.17%). Its sell off on good earnings is likely due to stocks over valuation. NVDA 's forward PE is nearly 49 while the estimated earning growth for next year is only 22, more than 100% above fair value. NVDA's Price to Book ratio is 23 while the average P/B for S&P 500 is around 3. P/B is way high. It has risen 106% this year and 189% during the last 1 year.
Tesla (TSLA) is another over valued stock:Its Forward PE 121 while the estimated earning growth for next year is 79%. It is 53% over fair value. TSLA's Price to Book ratio is 35 while the average P/B for S&P 500 is around 3. P/B is way high. TSLA stock has risen 349% this year and 732% in the last 1 year.
Looking forward, with S&P 500 topping out at it old all time high and AAPL, NVDA and TSLA's way overvaluation, it is not hard to believe the US stock market needs a correction near term.
Following charts are sourced from Finviz.com:
进入今天的股市，投资者关注的是苹果（AAPL）能否以467美元的价格使其市值达到2万亿美元，及在标准普尔500指数昨日创下历史收盘高点3386之后，投资者预期它将达到历史日内高点3393水平。上述两个目标今天都已经达到了，AAPL达到日内高点468.65，标普500达到日内高点3399.54。然而，主要市场指数却开始下跌，收盘时以红色收盘。以下是股市遭到抛售的原因：
1. AAPL股价升得过多，因为它今年的涨幅已超过57％，最近一年的涨幅已超过120％。它的前瞻市盈率接近30，明年的盈利增长率则仅为19.6％。比公允价值高出53％。当PE =盈利增长率时，它才是公允价值。 AAPL的市净率(P/B)为27，而标准普尔500的平均市净率约为3。市净率太过高了。苹果的2T美元市值心理价格阻力为467。由于它不能在此阻力之上守稳，而股值又过高，因此出现抛售并且带动市场下跌。
2.至于标普500指数，其阻力位为3393点历史当日高点。即使今天早些时候升至高点上方，但因无法维持而出现了抛售。当市场创下历史新高时，它通常会下跌休息一下。
3.美联储在太平洋时间上午11点发布了最后一次会议记录。要点如下：
a. 官员们一致认为，持续的公共卫生危机将在短期内严重影响经济活动，就业和通货膨胀，并在中期对经济构成重大风险。
b.官员们表示，他们担心金融体系面临的风险。即使银行现在状况良好，但如果病毒传播持续下去，情况可能会改变。
c. 官员们也对公共债务水平表示关注。
d. 官员们对限制利率的有效性表示怀疑。
e. 基于经济崩溃和商业不确定性，家庭支出的强劲使官员感到惊讶。
由于联储对病毒流行的担忧和对保持低利率有用性的怀疑，这引起了投资者的担忧，并引发了今天市场的抛售。
4.其他金融资产对美联储的会议纪要反应迅速。美元上涨0.85%，30年期美国国债收益率上涨1.22％，黄金下跌80美元，白银下跌1.55美元。美元和国债收益率走高都对股市不利而导致抛售。
市场收盘后，Nvidia （NVDA）的盈利和营业额均好于预期，并提高下个季度指引。股票后市却下跌了10.53（2.17％）。它好于预期的财报却遭到抛售可能是由于股票估值过高的原因。 NVDA的前瞻市盈率接近49，而明年的预估收益增长仅为22，比公允价值高出100％以上。 NVDA的市净率(P/B)为23，而标准普尔500的平均市净率约为3。市净率太过高了。今年以来股价增长了106％，最近一年增长了189％。
特斯拉（TSLA）是另一只被高估的股票：其前瞻市盈率为121，而明年的预期收益增长为79％。比公允价值高53％。 TSLA的市净率(P/B)为35，而标准普尔500的平均市净率约为3。市净率太过高了。 TSLA今年的股价上涨了349％，最近一年上涨了732％。
展望未来，标准普尔500指数在历史高位见顶，而大型科技股AAPL，NVDA和TSLA的估值又过高，因此不难相信股市近期美股需要下跌修正。
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