Bitcoin Is Hot, Here Is All You Need To Know比特币炙手可热，这里有您所需要知道的

Bitcoin has been around 13 years and has been picking up more branding value each day. If you are willing to look hard enough, these days you can basically spend your Bitcoin anywhere, if not directly with the merchant then through a third party gift card purchaser. While some of these methods are little unconventional, they do help make Bitcoin more useful today and easier to adopt for tomorrow. 

Unlike commodities like gold, silver and oil which can replenish buy producing more when depleted, the supply of Bitcoin is limited to only 21 Million and there are currently 18,544,925 bitcoins in existence. This number changes about every 10 minutes when new blocks are mined. Right now, each new block adds 6.25 bitcoins into circulation. Why do bitcoins have value? Bitcoins have value because they are useful as a form of money and store of value. It will likely grow more valuable as  users, merchants, and startups grow. Bitcoin's value increases as people willing to accept them as payment. The rise of bitcoin is textbook supply and demand. Since supply is fixed and more and more institutional investors and end-users are adopting bitcoin, the price will surged. Bitcoin price surge is more likely now as more and more billionaires, hedge funds, corporation and investors are more willing to buy/ invest in it.  While the Apps from both Square and PayPal make their nearly 400 million accounts worldwide to buy Bitcoin easily also facilitates the Bitcoin price surge.

Technically, Bitcoin is bullish as it rallied strongly back from a sharp sell off from near $19500 to near $16000 last week and has quickly surge back up during the weekend and today to exceed the previous high in early trading. The breaking above its $20000 psychological level looks imminent. It has the potential to start the 2nd leg up of a bullish Continuation Up pattern if it breaks above $20000. This pattern if materialized could put Bitcoins potential target at $26000 rather quickly.  Other analysts are suggesting $50000, $60000, $100000, $318000 by end of next year and $500000 in a decade.

The ways to participate on the growth of Bitcoin in the stock market can be through GBTC, RIOT, MARA, SQ and PYPL.  I am only presenting charts for GBTC and RIOT Below.

Below I have collected latest news and analysis from sources such as CNBC, ZeroHedge, Seeking Alpha, Coindesk, CoinTelegraph, Investopedia...Etc for your references:

1.Guggenheim's Scott Minerd is the latest institutional type to be won over by Bitcoin, with his $5.3B Macro Opportunities Fund now having the green light to invest up to 10% of its assets in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) . ---Seeking Alpha

2. "We are just getting started," says Grayscale's Michael Sonnenshein, appearing on CNBC this morning. Addressing what some see as excessive speculation in crypto, Sonnenshein says inflows into Grayscale's various crypto vehicles don't indicate unhealthy investor fervor. ---Seeking Alpha

3. Tyler Winklevoss, the co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, who is bullish at Bitcoin for a long time, said on the "Squawk Box" that he has not bought more Bitcoin, but he thinks there is still a lot of room for growth. "Our argument is that Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, and it will be a big blow to gold. If this result is to be achieved, its market value must reach 9 trillion US dollars. Therefore, we think that the price of Bitcoin may be reached 500,000 US dollars in a decade, and the current price of Bitcoin is only 18,000 US dollars, so you should continue to hold it, or if you have not bought it, this is an opportunity to buy, because we think the future growth is 25 times." Winklevoss said. --- CNBC

4. BTIG strategists say cryptocurrency has come of age, and bitcoin should reach $50000 by the end of 2021. ---CNBC

5. Payments giant PayPal (PYPL) will allow its users to buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

6. In its updated policy, the Virginia-based business intelligence company Microstrategy declared that it would treat Bitcoin as the primary treasury reserve asset on an ongoing basis. MicroStrategy committed to investing up to $250 million in Bitcoin and gold.  MicroStrategy CEO Michael J. Saylor  remarked that the cryptocurrency “is a dependable store of value and an attractive investment asset with more long-term appreciation potential than holding cash.”

7. Square's Cash App allows user to buy bitcoin very easily even a fractional purchase.  Square announced on October 8 that it has purchased approximately 4,709 bitcoins at an aggregate purchase price of $50 million.

8. Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas-whose Grupo Salinas has interests in telecommunications, media, financial services, and retail-says he has 10% of his liquid net worth invested in Bitcoin (BTC-USD). He also recommends Safiedean Ammous's The Bitcoin Standard to his followers.

9. Big investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Jack Dorsey, Michael Saylor, among others have all put a portion of their vast wealth in Bitcoin.

10. The chief decision maker for where BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, invests its funds said bitcoin could take the place of gold to a large extent because crypto is “so much more functional than passing a bar of gold around.”  BlackRock CIO of fixed income Rick Reider discussed Bitcoin on CNBC, billionaire investor Mike Novogratz said BTC is now an institutional asset. Reider said that Bitcoin is here to stay and that it has the potential to evolve. He suggested that millennials favor BTC and that the strengthening reality of digital currencies becoming mainstream payment options were both major positive factors for BTC. 

11. As reported by Coindesk, "filings for the first half of this year show Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. purchased 22,977 Riot shares for $52,000. Two Vanguard funds – the Vanguard Index Fund and Vanguard Valley Forge Index Fund – were invested in 954,229 Riot shares worth $2,118,000, and two Fidelity funds were separately invested in 176,242 Riot shares worth $230,115 (split between a NASDAQ index and three market indices) and 2,769,759 HIVE shares worth $1,003,163. Riot Blockchain, based in the U.S., and HIVE Blockchain Technologies, based in Canada, provide services for mining bitcoin, a process where new cryptocurrency is minted."

12. A recent Bitcoin (BTC) technical analysis reportedly prepared by CitiFX for its institutional clients points to a potential high of $318,000 sometime in December 2021.While conceding that this figure may seem highly improbable, he points out that this “would only be a low to high rally of 102 times. We are at a point where the arguments in favour of Bitcoin could well be at their most persuasive ever." Citibank managing director Tom Fitzpatrick points out the three major bullish periods of BTC so far have been increasing in length. Initially, there was a 10-month run from 2010–2011, followed by a two-year run from 2011–2013, and finally a three-year run covering 2015 --2017. Fitzpatrick posits that the period of correction following the last two bull runs has remained stable at around 12 months. This, according to the analysis, places us squarely in the middle of a bull run which started in early 2019 and is potentially set to run for four years until late 2022.

13. Hot stock and Bitcoin analyst Thomas Lee of Fundstrat think Bitcoin will triple by next year, that is about $60000.

比特币已经存在大约13年了，并且每天都在增加品牌价值。如果您愿意足够努力来看，现在您基本上可以在任何地方花费您的比特币，如果不直接与商人联系，则可以通过第三方礼品卡购买者。尽管这些方法中的一些方法并非非常规，但它们确实有助于使比特币在今天更加有用，并在明天更容易被采用。

不同于黄金，白银和石油等商品可以在枯竭时增加生产来补充，比特币的供应仅限于2100万，目前存在18,544,925个比特币。开采新区块时，此数字大约每10分钟更改一次。现在，每个新区块都会增加6.25比特币的流通量。为什么比特币具有价值？比特币之所以具有价值，是因为它们作为一种货币和价值存储方式很有用。随着用户，商家和这行业初创企业的增长，它可能会变得越来越有价值。比特币的价值随着人们愿意接受用其付款而增加。比特币的兴起是教科书式的供求关系。由于供应是固定的，并且越来越多的机构投资者和最终用户采用比特币，价格将继续飙升。随着越来越多的亿万富翁，对冲基金，企业和投资者越来越愿意购买/投资比特币，比特币价格现在更有上涨的可能。另外，来自Square和PayPal的应用程序在全球范围内拥有近4亿账户可轻易购买比特币，也将促进比特币价格的飙升。

从技术上讲，比特币是看涨的，因为它从上周的近19500美元的大幅抛售到16000美元附近后强劲回升，并且在周末和今天迅速回升，今天早些时曾超过了先前的高点并即将突破其20000美元的心理水平。如果它突破20000美元，它有可能会开始看涨的上升继续（Continuation Up）形态的第二波上升。如果这一形态能够实现 ，则比特币的潜在目标很快就会达到26000美元。其他分析师对比特币将来的目标价建议是明年到达$ 50000，$60000,$ 100000 和$ 318000和10年达到$ 500000。

您可以在股票市场上通过GBTC，RIOT，MARA，SQ和PYPL参与比特币的增长。我在下面仅介绍GBTC和RIOT的图表。

下面，我从CNBC，ZeroHedge，Seeking Alpha，Coindesk，CoinTelegraph，Investopedia ... Et等来源收集了最新的比特币新闻和分析，以供您参考：

1.古根海姆（Guggenheim）的斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）正准备加入比特币投资，他的$ 5.3B宏观机会基金现在已获准将其多达10％的资产投资于Grayscale比特币信托基金（GBTC）。 ---寻求阿尔法

2.“我们才刚刚起步，” Grayscale比特币信托基金的Michael Sonnenshein说，他今天早上出现在CNBC上。针对一些人认为加密货币过度投机的问题，Sonnenshein说，流入Grayscale的各种加密货币工具并不显示不健康的投资者热情。 ---寻求阿尔法

3.加密货币交易所Gemini的共同创始人，长期以来看好比特币的Tyler Winklevoss在“ Squawk Box”上说，他一直没有购买更多的比特币，但他认为仍有很大的上涨空间。 “我们的论点是，比特币是黄金2.0，它将对黄金有很大打击。如果要达到这个结果，它的市值必须达到9万亿美元。因此，我们认为10年内比特币的价格可能会到50万美元，而现在比特币的价格只为18,000美元，所以应该继续持有，或者在您没有买的话，这是一个购买的机会，因为我们认为将来的成长是25倍。” Winklevoss说。 --- CNBC

4. BTIG策略师表示，加密货币已经成熟，比特币到2021年底应能达到$50000. ---CNBC

5.支付巨头PayPal （PYPL）将允许其用户购买比特币和其他加密货币。

6.总部位于弗吉尼亚州的商业情报公司Microstrategy在其最新政策中宣布，将持续将比特币视为主要的库存储备资产。 MicroStrategy承诺在比特币和黄金上投资高达2.5亿美元。 MicroStrategy首席执行官Michael J. Saylor表示，该加密货币“是可靠的价值存储和具有吸引力的投资资产，比持有现金具有更大的长期升值潜力。”

7. Square （SQ）的Cash App允许用户非常轻易地购买比特币，即使是少量购买。Square在10月8日宣布已以总购买价5,000万美元的购买了约4,709枚比特币。

8.对电信，媒体，金融服务和零售感兴趣的墨西哥亿万富翁里卡多·萨利纳斯（Ricardo Salinas）-将其流动资产的10％投资于比特币（BTC-USD）。他还向追随者推荐Safiedean Ammous的“比特币标准”。

9. Stanley Druckenmiller，Paul Tudor Jones，Jack Dorsey，Michael Saylor等大投资家都将其巨大财富的一部分投入了比特币。

10.全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德（BlackRock）投资基金的首席决策者表示，比特币在很大程度上可以取代黄金，因为加密货币“比传递金条的功能要强大得多”。亿万富翁投资者迈克·诺沃格拉茨（Mike Novogratz）表示，固定收益贝莱德（BlackRock）CIO Rick Reider在CNBC上讨论了比特币。 Reider表示，比特币将继续存在，并且有发展的潜力。他建议千禧一代青睐BTC，数字货币日益成为主流支付方式的现实是BTC的主要正面因素。

11.根据Coindesk的报告，“今年上半年的备案显示Charles Schwab Investment Management，Inc.以52,000美元的价格购买了22,977股Riot股份。Vanguard指数基金和Vanguard Valley Forge指数基金这两个Vanguard基金投资了954,229 Riot股票价值为2118,000美元，两个富达基金分别投资了176,242 Riot股票，价值230,115美元（在纳斯达克指数和三个市场指数之间平分）和2,769,759股HIVE股票，价值1,003,163美元。美国Riot Blockchain和HIVE Blockchain Technologies在加拿大，为开采比特币提供服务，这是铸造新的加密货币的过程。”

12.据报道，CitiFX为机构客户准备的最新比特币（BTC）技术分析显示，2021年12月某个时候可能达到318,000美元的高位。尽管他承认这一数字似乎不太可能，但他指出，“这只是从低位增长102倍。现在支持比特币的论点​​很可能是有史以来最具说服力的。”到目前为止，BTC的牛市长度一直在增加，最初是从2010-2011年开始，为期10个月，然后从2011-2013年开始，为期两年，最后是2015年-2017年，为三年。分析显示，最近两次牛市之后的修正期一直稳定在12个月左右。这使我们完全处于牛市中期，牛市于2019年初开始，可能会持续四年直到2022年下半年。

13. 当红股票和比特币分析师， Fundstrat 的Thomas Lee认为到明年比特币将是现在的3倍，即$60000.

These Investment Axioms Fit Today's Market Environment 这些投资格言符合当今的市场环境

1.  “Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria"---John Templeton

My interpretation: With the S&P 500 surged 66% since march low, PE at 23 vs historical average of 15, CNN Fear and Greed index at the extreme greed level of 92 and the National Associate of Investment Managers is carrying above 100% exposure to stock, these statistics certainly put us at the euphoria stage of a bull market.  This kind of extreme market level is hard to sustain as the rule is market returns to the mean over time. Excess are never permanent and excess leads to opposite excess.

2. "When all experts agree, something else tends to happen" ---Bob Farrell

My interpretation: Most market analysts are now expecting the arrival of Covid-19 vaccines will fix everything and push the stock market even higher, now is the time for us to worry for something bad to happen.

3. "Price is what you pay. Value is what you get" ---Warren Buffet.

My interpretation: When you buy a stock such as NIO with no PE and, Price to Sales of 38, Price to Book at 53 and stock price has risen 2095% in the past year, you are paying a very dear price hoping that things will go perfectly smooth in the future. When the current stock price already reflecte d developments that can only be achieved many years later, you are definitely not getting a good deal.   No, I am not forgetting to mention TSLA with Forward PE at 150, Price to Sales of 19, Price to Book at 34 and stock price has risen 784% in the past year. Other EV stocks are also in the same over stretched situation. Paying at high price for a stock when sentiment is euphoric  means investment return will likely be lower in the future as sentiment return to normal. FOMO (fear of missing out) to buy a stock is dangerous.

4. "Be Mindful of Experts and Forecasts"---Bob Farrell

My interpretation: When most market experts are saying sell, sell, sell—or buy, buy, buy— everyone has sold or bought,  there's nothing left to sell or buy. By the time you jump in, the opposite will likely  happen. Analysts and economists have to predict because that's their job. However, no body can predict what happen in a year's time. When somebody tells you what will happen in the market or stock one year ahead, don't believe it. Believing is admitting that future can be known ahead of time. Through out time, an analyst become hot and get popular because he predicted something right, but his/her accuracy won't last for long. Some time later, another analyst will become hot and and take the place of  the previous hot one. 

5. "Public Buys Most at the Top and Least at the Bottom" ---Bob Farrell

Interpretation by Barklay Palmer from Investopedia: The typical investor reads the latest news on his mobile phone, watches market programs, and believes what he's told. Unfortunately, by the time the financial press gets around to reporting a given price move, that move is already complete and a reversion is usually in progress. This is precisely the moment when John Q decides to buy at the top or sell at the bottom. The need to be a contrarian is underlined by this rule. Independent thinking always outperforms the herd mentality.

1.“牛市生于悲观，因怀疑而成长，因乐观而成熟，并因欣喜而死亡”-约翰·邓普顿 （John Templeton)

我的解读：自3月低点以来，标准普尔500指数已飙升66％，市盈率上升至23而历史平均水平则只是15，CNN恐惧与贪婪指数处于92的极度贪婪水平，国家投资经理人协会成员的股票投入率超过100％ ，这些统计数据无疑使我们进入了牛市的极度欣喜阶段。这种极端的市场水平很难维持，因为市场规律是随着时间的推移市场将回归到平均水平。过度永远不会永久存在，而过度却会导致相反的过度。

2.“当所有专家意见都一致时，其他事情就会发生” ---鲍勃·法瑞尔 （Bob Farrell）

我的解读：大多数市场分析师现在都认为Covid-19疫苗的到来能够解决所有问题并推动股票市场继续走高，现在是我们担心坏事快将到来的时候了。

3.“价格就是您所付出的，价值就是您所获得的”-沃伦·巴菲特（ Warren Buffet)

我的解读：当您购买NIO之类没有PE，38的价格对销售比率，53的价格对帐面价值，并且在过去一年中股价已上涨了2095％的股票时，您付出了非常高的价格，希望将来公司会发展完美的事事顺利。当现在的股价已反映了多年后才达到的发展时，您肯定不会得到好的回报。不，我不会忘记提及TSLA，其前瞻PE为150，价格对销售比率为19，价格对帐面价值为34，股价在过去一年中上已涨了784％。其他电动汽车股也处于过度高涨状态。当市场情绪高涨时，以高价买入股票意味着随着市场情绪恢复正常，未来的投资回报不会很高。因为 FOMO（怕错过）而买股票是危险的。

4.“不要过分相信专家和预测” ---鲍勃·法瑞尔 （Bob Farrell）

我的解释：当大多数市场专家都说卖或买时，每个人都卖或买了。当您跳入时，可能会发生相反的情况。分析师和经济学家必须做出预测，因为那是他们的工作。但是，没有人能预测一年后会发生什么。当有人告诉您未来一年市场或股票会发生什么时，请不要相信。相信就是承认未来是可以提前知道的（没可能的事情）。市场上经常发生的事情是是一位分析师会因为预测正确而变得炙手可热，并因此受到欢迎，但他/她的准确性不会持续很长时间。一段时间后，另一位分析师将变得炙手可热，并取代之前的分析师。

5.“公众在顶部买入最多，在底部买入最少” ---鲍勃·法瑞尔 （Bob Farrell）

Investopedia的Barklay Palmer的解读：典型的投资者在他的手机上阅读最新消息，观看市场节目，并相信他所告诉的内容。不幸的是，等到金融媒体报道给价格变动时，该变动已经完成，并且反转已在进行中。这正是某散户决定在顶部买入或在底部卖出的时刻。这时就需要成为逆势者。独立思考总是比盲目跟随强。

These 3 High probability indicators Call For Near Term Market Correction 这3个高概率指标指向近期市场调整在即

The Dow （$indu）,  S&P500($spx), Nasdaq 100($ ndx)and Russell 2000(IWM) have now all reached all time highs after reacting to bullish news such as Covid-19 Vaccines to be available soon, Biden most likely will be the next president, Q3 earnings are mostly positive and dovish former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is selected as the the person to head the US Treasury.  Good news has all discounted. However, investors have been ignoring surging new Covid-19 cases and economic stimulus is not likely this year both likely hurt the economy. Meanwhile, the following 3 reliable market indicators are calling for imminent market correction. They are CNN's Fear & Greed Indicator, Index Put Call Ratio ($CPC) and Equity Put Call Ratio ($CPCE). These indicators all points to extreme bullishness and the market will likely cool off in the near term. The first two downside targets are 20 day moving average 3531 and 50 day moving average 3446, they repreesent 2.8% and 5.2% down respectively.

The CNN Fear & Greed Indicator is at 92 today, the second most extreme greed level since January this year. This extreme level usually indicates a stock market correction is imminent.

The Index Put Call Ratio ($CPC) and Equity Put Call Ratio ($CPCE) are both near extreme low levels that also indicate imminent market reversal down.

道琼斯指数（$indu），标准普尔500指数($spx)，纳斯达克100($ndx)和罗素2000 (IWM)在一系列利好消息做出反应后，现在都已创下了历史新高。这些利好消息是Covid-19疫苗将面世，拜登很可能将成为下一任总统，第三季度的财报大多为正面及鸽派前美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦被选为下届财政部长。利好已完全备反影了。 然而，投资者一直无视新的Covid-19案件及死亡人数激增和今年不太可能有经济刺激措施出台，两者都会损害经济。 另外，以下3个可靠的市场指标均显示市场修正在即。 它们是CNN的“恐惧与贪婪”指标，指数看跌及看涨期权比率（$ CPC）和股票看跌及看涨期权比率（$ CPCE）。 这些指标都表明极端看涨情绪，短期市场可能会降温。前两个下行目标是20日移动平均线3531和50日移动平均线3446，它们分别代表下跌2.8％和5.2％。

CNN恐惧与贪婪指标今天为92，是自今年一月以来第二高的极端贪婪水平。 这种极端水平通常显示股市调整即将来临。

指数看跌及看涨期权比率（$ CPC）和股票看跌及看涨期权比率（$ CPCE）都接近极低水平，这也预示着市场即将反转向下。

These Indicators Point To Short Term Market Downside Reversal 这些指标显示短期市场会逆转下行

 Latest bullish news for the US stock market are:

1. Most analysts/economists are now bullish on the market. 

2. Multiple good news on the Covid-19 vaccines.

3. Biden becomes the next president is pretty sure.

4. Dovish former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellan is selected by Biden as the next Treasury Secretary.

All these good news are good for stock market next year.  But good news are mostly out, what else is to expect for the short term? Meanwhile, investors sentiment is too bullish for more short term upside. 

The CNN Money's Fear & Greed Index has reached the second highest point in the the last 3 years. It is now at 88 a very extreme greedy level. As the chart below shows, every time this index reached to around 80 the stock market reversed down. 

The following chart shows investors have piled their money into the stock market the most now since 2002,  a show of exuberance.

The following chart shows asset buying momentum is at its peak level indicating everything is risk on and market becomes risky.

Now the most accurate short term indicator: Put Call ratio. Both the Index Put Call Ratio  (CPC) and Equity Put Call Ratio (CPCE) are near their historically lows, historically they usually followed by a downside reversal for the stock market. Since the day before thanks giving and after thanksgiving stock market are usually up, may be the market will reverse down next week.

美国股市最新的利好消息有：

1.大多数分析师/经济学家现在都对市场看涨。

2.有关Covid-19疫苗的多个好消息已经发布。

3.拜登成为下一任总统非常确定。

4.拜登任命鸽派前美联储主席Janet Yellan为下一任财政部长。

所有这些好消息对明年的股市都是有利的。 但是，好消息大多出炉了，短期还有什么期望呢？ 另外，短期内投资者情绪也过于乐观。

美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的恐惧与贪婪指数现在已经达到在过去三年来的第二高点。 现在是88，这是一个非常极端的贪婪水平。 如下图所示，每当该指数达到80附近时，股市就会反转向下。

下图显示了自2002年以来投资者将资金投入股市最多就是现在。这是有些过度。

下图显示资产购买动能处于峰值水平，表明各行业股票都被大量买入，市场变得充满风险。

我觉得最准确的短期指标是看跌看涨期权比率。 指数看跌看涨期权比率（CPC）和股票看跌看涨期权比率（CPCE）都接近历史低点，从历史上看，它们通常随之而来的就是股市的下行逆转。由于感恩节的前一天和感恩节之后一天的股市通常都会上涨，因此下周市场才下跌的机会大。

NIO Is A Bubble Bursting NIO泡沫破裂

Investors's extreme bullish sentiment pushed NIO from October 4, 2019's $1.19 all the way up to today's high of $54.20, a crazy 4455% return in 13 months! A series good news such as company delivering more vehicles last month, XPeng (XPEV) reported better earnings two days ago and Li Auto (LI) reported better earnings yesterday have been driving the bullishness of NIO to extreme. It is a classic sell on news opportunity. After NIO made a high of $54.20 earlier today, it has since reversed back down to $44.92, this is a classic bubble bursting signal in a stock.  NIO is too speculative to invest for the long term, it's better for trading long and short side for the short term. Following are some negatives for NIO:

1. Investors have no sense of how to match fundamentals with stock price, the only thing in their mind is  the company's future may be as good or even better than TSLA. This kind of word of mouth feeds from one investors to another and to hundreds and thousands others who rarely investigate into the companies fundamentals or understand what's going on in the business.  Investors are banking on NIO's intangible value that is hard to measure. Now the stock price has risen 4455% in the last 13 months making it a gigantic bubble ready to burst. NIO stock price has reflected a perfect future growth scenario and leave no room for errors. 

2, In September, global electric car sales listed NIO number 20 only in rank with up to September sales of merely 26498 cars this year. It's sales rank even lower than Ford (F) 's 17 and 30432 cars up to September sales. There is too much competition in the EV business.

3. Price to Sales ratio is a good way to measure valuation of a stock. The lower the Price to Sales the better. NIO's Price to Sales ratio is a whopping 45 times compares to other car makers such as TSLA's 14, TM's 0.87, GM's 0.50 and F's 0.26. NIO is way overvalue.

4. The consensus price target of 15 analysts rated NIO at $22.35. 

5. NIO is not making any money yet and has a negative Book Value of $-0.83.

6. Famous short-seller Citron Research recommended investors to sell the stock today, citing pricing pressure posed by bigger rival Tesla Inc in the Chinese market. "Anyone buying NIO stock now is not buying a company or its prospects, rather you are buying 3 letters that move on a screen," Citron"s Andrew Left said in the note. Citron's downside target for NIO is $25.

7. Technicals: NIO reversed from up to down today and has formed a bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, it has formed a bearish long tail reversal pattern after a vertical move up for weeks. The first two downside targets are its 20 day and 50 day moving averages and they are $34.79 and $26.17.

投资者的极端看涨情绪推动NIO从2019年10月4日的1.19美元一路攀升至今天的高点54.20美元，在13个月内达到了4455％的疯狂涨幅！一系列好消息，例如公司上个月交付了更多车辆，XPeng(XPEV)两天前报告了好于预期的收益，而昨天Li Auto (LI)也报告了好于预期的收益将NIO的看涨情绪推向了极端。这是经典的好消息出来后卖出的机会。 NIO在今天早些时候创下54.20美元的高位后，随后又回落至44.92美元，这是股票中典型的泡沫破灭信号。 NIO的投机性太强，无法作长期投资，短期内进行多空交易比较好。以下是对NIO的一些负面因素：

1.投资者不知道如何将基本面与股价相匹配，他们唯一想到的是公司的未来可能和TSLA一样甚至更好。这种口口相传从一个投资者传给另一个投资者，再到成千上万的其他人，而他们都很少调查公司的基本面或了解业务的发展。投资者正在觉秋NIO的难以衡量的无形价值。现在，股价在过去13个月中上涨了4455％，使其成为一个巨大的泡沫，随时可能破裂。NIO的股价已经反映出理想的未来增长前景，并且不能有错误的余地。

2、9月份，全球电动汽车销量NIO 只排行第20位，而今年截至9月的销量仅为26498辆。截至9月，它的销售排名甚至低于福特（F）的排名第17和30432辆车。这个行业的竟争太剧烈了。

3.价格/销售额比率（Price to Sales) 是衡量股票估值的一种好方法。这个比率越低越好。NIO的 价格/销售额比率高达45倍。与其他汽车制造商（如TSLA的14，TM的0.87，GM的0.50和F的0.26）相比， NIO的价格是极端被高估的。

4. 15位分析师的NIO共识目标价只为22.35美元。

5. NIO尚未盈利，账面价值为-0.83美元。

6.著名卖空机构Citron Research建议投资者今天抛售股票，理由是更大的竞争对手特斯拉（Tesla Inc.）在中国市场造成的定价压力。 Citron的Andrew Left在笔记中说：“现在购买NIO股票的任何人都不是在购买公司或其前景，而是在购买3个在报价屏幕上移动的字母。” Citron对NIO定下的下行目标是25美元。

7.技术分析：NIO今天从上向下反转，并在日线图上形成了看跌的“乌云盖顶”模式。在周线图上，它在垂直上涨数周后形成了看跌的长尾反转形态。NIO首先两个下行目标是20天和50天移动平均线水平，分别是34.79美元和26.17美元。阻力位54.20美元。

Long Term Good, Short Term Bad 长期好，短期坏

Major stock market indexes rose sharply and made intraday all time highs today but both the Dow and S&P 500 have settled a lot lower than their highs and the Nasdaq Composite turned significantly lower.  The Dow at one point rose around 1700 points at it's high and is the biggest single day point move ever. Major news that drove the market up are Biden wins the presidency and Pfzer/Biontech's  Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective. While Biden's winning of the presidency is good for the stock market overall in the long run , however buy on rumor sell on news action and there are a few market risks that may derail the rally near term:

。Republicans and Trump continue to contest election results in several states which may cause delay in presidential transition and creates uncertainty. According to a twit from a data scientist using time series data'scraped' from the New York Times website, the data-comparing several states (swing and non-swing)-clearly illustrates what fraud does and does not look like, and how several anomalies in swing states left'fingerprints of fraud' as Biden pulled ahead of President Trump.

。No clear majority win in both senate seat race in Geogia is causing run off election in Janauary 5, 2021. The result in January is crucial as it will determine whether democrate or republican in control of US Senate. If democrate wins both seats, there will be 50 democrates and 50 republican senators in the senate. The tied breaker vote will go to the Vice President which is Kamala Harris assuming Binden win is confirmed. This will make Binden's high tax policy passing easily and is a concern for the stock market. 

。There is worry on high PE tech stock sell off as investors rotate from growth into value stocks. This is evident today as tech heavy Nasdaq Composite underperforms other indexes. Technically, the Nasdaq Composite made new highs earlier today but gave up all the gains and turn negative does not look good for the market since it has formed Triple Top pattern. It is tough for the stock market to go any where without the help of big cap tech stocks.

。Meanwhile the continue worsening Covid-19 pandemic may drag on the economy before vaccine and economic stimulus come along. "The United States topped 10 million cases Monday as global cases surpassed 50 million. The 10 million number was reached just 10 days after the U.S. reached 9 million cases." ---CNBC  "The COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread in Europe. In Italy, the most affected country so far, the number of coronavirus cases has risen to 7,375 and the number of deaths to 366 as data from Johns Hopkins University shows. In total there over 12,000 confirmed cases in Europe. After Italy, France has the most cases (1,209), with 19 deaths recorded so far. Germany has 1,040 cases-of which 18 have recovered and none so far have died. Spain has 673, with 17 deaths recorded at the time of writing."---Statista. 

The following 3 graphs are sourced from Finviz.com:

Followings is a summary his major policies from New York Times:

"Coronavirus

Biden made combating the pandemic a central message of his campaign for months, arguing that the nation would be better off if he were in charge. 

Healthcare

Biden supports expanding the Affordable Care Act and creating a public option — a plan he has nicknamed Bidencare. He has denounced Republican efforts to overturn the health care law, and vowed to ensure that Americans with pre-existing conditions will continue to have access to health care.

Economy

Biden has a sweeping economic recovery plan, under the moniker “Build Back Better,” that promises to create millions of job. In his plan, Mr. Biden has tied the economic revival to tackling climate change, racial equity and reinvestment in American manufacturing.

Among his proposals are a $300 billion increase in government spending on research and development of technologies, like electric vehicles and 5G cellular networks, and an additional $400 billion in federal procurement spending on products that are manufactured in the United States.

To discourage American companies from moving jobs to other countries, known as offshoring, he proposed a 10 percent “offshoring penalty surtax” that would apply to “profits of any production by a United States company overseas for sales back to the United States.”

Taxes

Biden wants to partially repeal the Trump tax overhaul, rolling back tax cuts for corporations and the highest earners. He has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28 percent, from 21 percent.

But he has said that he will keep tax cuts in place for other households, including those in the middle class, and he has promised that no one making under $400,000 will pay higher taxes. 

Climate Change

Biden laid out a plan over the summer to spend $2 trillion to develop clean energy and eliminate emissions from the power sector by 2035. In addition to the coronavirus pandemic, the resulting economic crisis and racial injustice, he has referred to climate change as one of four “historic crises” that the United States is facing. 

But notably, he has declined to support the Green New Deal, a sweeping climate plan embraced by progressive groups and criticized by Republicans, though his website calls it a “crucial framework.”

And while Mr. Trump has accused Mr. Biden of wanting to “ban fracking,” Mr. Biden has repeatedly said he will not do so. Instead, he has proposed ending the permitting of new fracking on federal lands, but he is not proposing a national ban."

主要股市指数今天大幅上涨并创出历史新高，但收市时道指及标普500都比高点低很多而纳指则大幅下跌。道琼斯指数一度上涨约1700点，是有史以来最大的单日涨幅。驱使市场上升的重大消息是拜登赢得总统选举和Pfzer / Biontech的Covid-19疫苗的有效性是90%。虽然拜登赢得总统选举对股市长远看好，但投资人趁好消息获利卖出的卖压及下面几个市场风险可能会破坏短期上升趋势：

。共和党人和特朗普继续对几个州选举结果有争议，这可能会导致总统过渡推迟，并带来不确定性。根据一位数据科学家的推文，他使用了《纽约时报》网站上“抓取的”时间序列数据，数据比较多个州（摇摆州和非摇摆州）清楚地说明了欺诈行为的做法和合法的做法，以及几种欺诈行为的真实性。当拜登领先特朗普总统时，摇摆状态的异常留下了“欺诈的指纹”。

。因为在Geogia的两个参议院议席选举都没有明显的以大比数胜出而导致要在到2021年1月5日重选。1月的选举结果至关重要，因为它将决定是民主党还是共和党控制美国参议院。如果民主党赢得两个席位，参议院将有50名民主党人和50名共和党参议员。打破平局的决定者将是副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris），如果确定拜登获胜的话。这将使拜登的高税收政策轻松通过，并成为股票市场的担忧。

。随着投资者从增长型股票转向价值型股票，人们担心高市盈率科技股会遭到抛售。今天，这已很明显，因为科技股含量高的纳斯达克综合指数跑输其他指数。从技术上讲，纳斯达克综合指数今天早些时候创出新高，但收市时放弃了所有涨幅而转为下跌，造成了当日逆转并已经形成了三重顶的看跌形态。这对市场而言并不好， 因为没有大型科技股的帮助，股市很难有大进展。

。另外，持续恶化的Covid-19大流行可能会在疫苗和经济刺激措施出现之前拖累经济下滑。 “星期一，美国的病例数突破了1000万，全球病例数超过了5000万。在美国达到900万例后仅10天这一数字就达到了1000万。” --- CNBC “约翰·霍普金斯大学的数据显示，COVID-19冠状病毒继续在欧洲蔓延。迄今为止，受影响最严重的意大利，今天冠状病毒的病例数已增至7,375例，死亡人数为366例。今天 欧洲总共有12,000例确诊病例。仅次于意大利，法国是第二个最多的病例的国家（1,209例），有19例死亡；德国有1,040例，其中18例已经康复，没有死亡；西班牙有673例， 有17人死亡。” --- Statista。

以下三图源自Finviz.com:

以下是《纽约时报》总结拜登的主要政策摘要：

新冠病毒

“拜登以积极抗击这种流行病作为他竞选活动的中心信息，他认为，如果他掌管国家，国家会更好。

卫生保健

拜登（Biden）支持扩大《平价医疗法案》（Affordable Care Act）并创建一种公共选择权-他将这一计划昵称为“拜登医疗法案（Bidencare）”。他谴责共和党推翻医疗保健法的努力，并发誓要确保患有先决条件的美国人将继续获得医疗保健。

经济

拜登（Biden）制定了一项全面的经济复苏计划，该计划的名称为“ Build Back Better”，旨在创造数百万个工作岗位。拜登在其计划中将经济复兴与应对气候变化，种族平等和对美国制造业的再投资联系起来。在他的建议中，政府将在电动汽车和5G蜂窝网络等技术研发方面增加3000亿美元的政府支出，另外还将在美国制造的产品上增加4000亿美元的联邦采购支出。为了阻止美国公司将工作转移到其他国家（称为离岸外包），他提出了10％的“离岸罚款附加费”，适用于“美国公司在海外销售回美国的任何产品的利润”。

税收

拜登希望部分废除特朗普的为企业和收入最高的人减税税制。他提议将企业税率从21％提高到28％。但是他说过，他将继续为包括中产阶级在内的其他家庭减税，并且他承诺，年收入低于40万美元的人不会缴纳高的税款。

气候变化

拜登在夏季制定了一项计划，计划花费2万亿美元发展清洁能源，并在2035年之前消除电力部门的废气排放。除了冠状病毒大流行，随之而来的经济危机和种族不公正外，他还把气候变化称为美国面临的“历史四大危机”之一。但值得注意的是，尽管他的网站称其为“关键框架”，但他拒绝支持绿色新政。绿色新政是进步组织所接受，共和党人批评的全面气候计划。尽管特朗普先生指控拜登先生想“禁止水力压裂产油”，但拜登先生一再表示他不会这样做。相反，他提议终止允许在联邦土地上进行新压裂的许可，但他没有提议实行全国禁令。”

Perfect Time To Sell Ahead Of Election Result 这是选举结果前卖出的最好时机

The S&P 500 has risen nearly 5 % from the low of two days ago and is facing 50 day moving average resistance at 3400. Technically the market is rallying on a downtrend. It is likely that it will come back down when resistance is reached. Investors are too eager to get ahead of the election results and betting that everything will be fine after the election.  This is  a show of too much complacency.  Investors with cool heads should  not bet on the election outcome and its effect on the financial markets. It is now a perfect time to sell to avoid the uncertainties of the election. We don't know who will win, whether there will be contention on the result, how long will it take to decide who wins and whether there will be violent on the streets. Meanwhile, Covid-19 infections are getting worse and non-farm payroll is to be reported on Friday. Too much risk ahead!

标准普尔500指数已从两天前的低点上涨了近5％，并面临3400的50天移动平均线 阻力。技术上美股正在下跌趋势中反弹， 当达到阻力时，它很可能就会回落。 投资者太渴望入市了并押注选举后一切都会好起来。 这实在是太乐观了。 头脑冷静的投资者不应押注选举结果及其对金融市场的影响。 现在是卖出股票的最佳时机，以避免选举的不确定性。 我们不知道谁会赢，结果是否存在争执，决定谁获胜需要多长时间，以及街上是否会发生暴力。 与此同时，Covid-19感染正在恶化及周五将报告非农就业数据。 未来风险太大！

Analysts Are Too Bullish On Tech Stocks 分析师过份看好科技股

Wall Street analysts are too bullish on tech stocks. On Friday's tech wrack day, some of them rush to raise price targets of the falling mega tech stocks. They are doing these by ignoring market is in a serious down trend, worsening Covid-19 pandemic and pre and post election uncertainties. Uncertainty about COVID-19 is causing firms to pull their forecasts for quarterly results. These companies include 3M (MMM) , Caterpillar(CAT) and Apple (AAPL) while FaceBook (FB) warns Of "Significant Uncertainty" ahead. What makes these analysts so certain about the future? 

Even after the recent sharp drop, the Forward PE ratios on these big techs (AMZN 72, AAPL 29.71, FB 27.42, GOOG 27.77, MSFT 27.96, NVDA 46.99, TSLA 115.27, TWTR 68.81) are still way over the projected S&P 500 Forward PE of 24.19 (this is already high since the normal PE through out history is about 15-17). After 7 months of expansion, this may be the time for the PE expansion to stop and start to shrink back to normal. Also even after the recent big pull back, the above mentioned stock still up a lot this year with AAPL +48.29%, AMZN +64.31%,FB +28.19%,GOOG +21.24%, MSFT +28.39%, NVDA+113.07%,TSLA +363.80% and TWTR +29.05%. These high valuations in big cap stocks may force investors to diversify from growth stocks to value stocks.

Many cloud and work at home stocks such as OSTK, FSLY, WDAY and DOCU are down 56%, 54%, 39% and 30% respectively from there highs. And they are still up 696%, 216%,28% and 173% this year. These companies are not even making money yet. Their prices are discounting a lot of good news. For people who like to chase these high flying stocks, be ready for big losses when they come down. 

Meanwhile, many European countries are on lockdowns and the United States recorded 99321 virus infections on Friday as scientists warn latest surge is just beginning. Virus experts are expecting big increase of infections and deaths in the coming weeks as they expect what is happening in Europe is coming to in this county with 3 weeks delay.  The economy is going to dip again. As far as the presidential election is concern, even though polls indicate Biden is leading trump, but the general consensus is votes are going to be tight and uncertainty is going to create chaos.  

Dow is now trying to hold at its long term trend line 200 day moving average support at 26200 on Friday, more market down turn is likely if this level is broken and the next level of support is 25000. Further support supports are Fibonacci levels at 23667, 22361 and 18132 as seen in the weekly chart. Technically, after trending down for 3 weeks, the US stock market is oversold and is looking for good news to bounce. Good news is hard to find now, but dip buyers can't stand not to buy,  and the market may bounce on Monday.  However, US stock market trend is down, strategy is sell on rallies or when Dow 26200 is broken.

Following are Friday's analyst actions for major tech stocks:

Amazon (AMZN 3036.15) 

Monness Crespi & Hardt reiterated Buy, raise price target from 3750 to 4000.

Credit Suisse reiterated outperform, price target 3750.

Apple (AAPL 108.86)

Raymond James raises price target from 120 to 140.

D.A davidson raises price target from 120 to 132.

FaceBook (FB 263.11)

Monness Crespi &Hardt raises price target from 290 to 350.

Alphabet (GOOG 1621.01)

KeyBanc mai tains Overweight, price target 1970.

Morgan Stanley maintain Overwight, price target 1880.

Twitter (TWTR 41.36)

Pivotal Reseach reiterated Buy, price target raised from 59.75 to 64.

华尔街分析师对科技股过于乐观。上周五是科技大跌的一日，其中一些人却急于提高大型科技股的价格目标。他们忽略了市场正处于严重的下跌趋势，加剧的Covid-19大流行以及选举前后的不确定性。COVID-19的不确定性正在导致企业取消对下季度业绩的预测。这些公司包括3M（MMM），Caterpillar（CAT）和Apple（AAPL），而FaceBook（FB）则警告将来存在“重大不确定性”。是什么让这些分析师对未来如此确定而对科技股如此的乐观的？

即使在最近大幅下跌之后，这些大型科技公司（AMZN 72，AAPL 29.71，FB 27.42，GOOG 27.77，MSFT 27.96，NVDA 46.99，TSLA 115.27，TWTR 68.81）的前瞻PE比率仍然超出了预期的标准普尔500前瞻PE 24.19（这已经很高，因为在整个历史中正常的PE约为15-17）。经过7个月的扩展，这可能是停止PE扩展并开始恢复正常的时候了。即使在最近的大幅回调之后，上述股票今年仍然上涨了很多，AAPL + 48.29％，AMZN + 64.31％，FB + 28.19％，GOOG + 21.24％，MSFT + 28.39％，NVDA + 113.07％， TSLA + 363.80％和TWTR + 29.05％。

另外，OSTK，FSLY，WDAY和DOCU等许多云和家居股票分别从最高点下跌了56％，54％，39％和30％。这些股票今年仍然分别上升了696％，216％，28％和173％。这些公司甚至还没有赚钱。他们的价格已经预期了很多好消息。对于喜欢追逐这些股票的人，当它们下跌时要做好大笔损失的准备。

科技股的高估值可能迫使投资者从成长型股票分散到价值型股票而导致科技股下跌。

现在，许多欧洲国家已处于封锁状态，而周五美国则记录了99321病毒感染，科学家警告最新的热潮才刚刚开始。病毒专家预计在未来几周内感染和死亡人数将大大增加，因为他们预计欧洲般的的疫情发展将在3周后在美国发生。经济将再次下滑。尽管民意调查显示拜登在选举中领先特朗普，但普遍的共识是票数会很接近，谁真正当选要一段时间才能确定。这种不确定性将造成社会混乱。

道琼斯指数周五试图维持在其长期趋势线200日移动均线支撑位26200水平之上，如果跌穿该水平，市场将进一步下跌，下一支撑位为25000。再下面的支撑位是斐波那契水平23667 ，22361和18132， 这些都在周线图上可以看到。从技术上讲，在下跌了3周后，美国股市已达超卖，并且正在寻找好消息反弹。以现在情况看来，有好消息的机会不大， 但逢低买入者仍会忍不住进场，所以周一有可能会反弹。不过，美股趋势看跌，策略是反弹或跌穿道指26200时卖出。

以下是周五分析师对主要技术股的行动：

亚马逊（AMZN 3036.15）

Monness Crespi＆Hardt重申买入评级，将目标价从3750上调至4000。

瑞士信贷重申优于大市的评级，目标价为3750。

苹果（AAPL 108.86）

雷蒙德·詹姆斯（Raymond James）将目标价格从120提高至140。

戴维森 （D.A davidson ）将目标价从120提高至132。

脸书（FB 263.11）

Monness Crespi＆Hardt将目标价格从290提高至350。

Alphabet（GOOG 1621.01）

KeyBanc维持加重评级，1970价格目标。

摩根士丹利维持加重评级，价目标价为1880。

推特（TWTR 41.36）

Pivotal Reseach重申买入评级，目标价从59.75上调至64。