These Indicators Point To Short Term Market Downside Reversal 这些指标显示短期市场会逆转下行

 Latest bullish news for the US stock market are:

1. Most analysts/economists are now bullish on the market. 

2. Multiple good news on the Covid-19 vaccines.

3. Biden becomes the next president is pretty sure.

4. Dovish former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellan is selected by Biden as the next Treasury Secretary.

All these good news are good for stock market next year.  But good news are mostly out, what else is to expect for the short term? Meanwhile, investors sentiment is too bullish for more short term upside. 

The CNN Money's Fear & Greed Index has reached the second highest point in the the last 3 years. It is now at 88 a very extreme greedy level. As the chart below shows, every time this index reached to around 80 the stock market reversed down. 

The following chart shows investors have piled their money into the stock market the most now since 2002,  a show of exuberance.

The following chart shows asset buying momentum is at its peak level indicating everything is risk on and market becomes risky.

Now the most accurate short term indicator: Put Call ratio. Both the Index Put Call Ratio  (CPC) and Equity Put Call Ratio (CPCE) are near their historically lows, historically they usually followed by a downside reversal for the stock market. Since the day before thanks giving and after thanksgiving stock market are usually up, may be the market will reverse down next week.

美国股市最新的利好消息有：

1.大多数分析师/经济学家现在都对市场看涨。

2.有关Covid-19疫苗的多个好消息已经发布。

3.拜登成为下一任总统非常确定。

4.拜登任命鸽派前美联储主席Janet Yellan为下一任财政部长。

所有这些好消息对明年的股市都是有利的。 但是，好消息大多出炉了，短期还有什么期望呢？ 另外，短期内投资者情绪也过于乐观。

美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的恐惧与贪婪指数现在已经达到在过去三年来的第二高点。 现在是88，这是一个非常极端的贪婪水平。 如下图所示，每当该指数达到80附近时，股市就会反转向下。

下图显示了自2002年以来投资者将资金投入股市最多就是现在。这是有些过度。

下图显示资产购买动能处于峰值水平，表明各行业股票都被大量买入，市场变得充满风险。

我觉得最准确的短期指标是看跌看涨期权比率。 指数看跌看涨期权比率（CPC）和股票看跌看涨期权比率（CPCE）都接近历史低点，从历史上看，它们通常随之而来的就是股市的下行逆转。由于感恩节的前一天和感恩节之后一天的股市通常都会上涨，因此下周市场才下跌的机会大。