Major stock market indexes rose sharply and made intraday all time highs today but both the Dow and S&P 500 have settled a lot lower than their highs and the Nasdaq Composite turned significantly lower. The Dow at one point rose around 1700 points at it's high and is the biggest single day point move ever. Major news that drove the market up are Biden wins the presidency and Pfzer/Biontech's Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective. While Biden's winning of the presidency is good for the stock market overall in the long run , however buy on rumor sell on news action and there are a few market risks that may derail the rally near term:
。Republicans and Trump continue to contest election results in several states which may cause delay in presidential transition and creates uncertainty. According to a twit from a data scientist using time series data'scraped' from the New York Times website, the data-comparing several states (swing and non-swing)-clearly illustrates what fraud does and does not look like, and how several anomalies in swing states left'fingerprints of fraud' as Biden pulled ahead of President Trump.
。No clear majority win in both senate seat race in Geogia is causing run off election in Janauary 5, 2021. The result in January is crucial as it will determine whether democrate or republican in control of US Senate. If democrate wins both seats, there will be 50 democrates and 50 republican senators in the senate. The tied breaker vote will go to the Vice President which is Kamala Harris assuming Binden win is confirmed. This will make Binden's high tax policy passing easily and is a concern for the stock market.
。There is worry on high PE tech stock sell off as investors rotate from growth into value stocks. This is evident today as tech heavy Nasdaq Composite underperforms other indexes. Technically, the Nasdaq Composite made new highs earlier today but gave up all the gains and turn negative does not look good for the market since it has formed Triple Top pattern. It is tough for the stock market to go any where without the help of big cap tech stocks.
。Meanwhile the continue worsening Covid-19 pandemic may drag on the economy before vaccine and economic stimulus come along. "The United States topped 10 million cases Monday as global cases surpassed 50 million. The 10 million number was reached just 10 days after the U.S. reached 9 million cases." ---CNBC "The COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread in Europe. In Italy, the most affected country so far, the number of coronavirus cases has risen to 7,375 and the number of deaths to 366 as data from Johns Hopkins University shows. In total there over 12,000 confirmed cases in Europe. After Italy, France has the most cases (1,209), with 19 deaths recorded so far. Germany has 1,040 cases-of which 18 have recovered and none so far have died. Spain has 673, with 17 deaths recorded at the time of writing."---Statista.
The following 3 graphs are sourced from Finviz.com:
Followings is a summary his major policies from New York Times:
"Coronavirus
Biden made combating the pandemic a central message of his campaign for months, arguing that the nation would be better off if he were in charge.
Healthcare
Biden supports expanding the Affordable Care Act and creating a public option — a plan he has nicknamed Bidencare. He has denounced Republican efforts to overturn the health care law, and vowed to ensure that Americans with pre-existing conditions will continue to have access to health care.
Economy
Biden has a sweeping economic recovery plan, under the moniker “Build Back Better,” that promises to create millions of job. In his plan, Mr. Biden has tied the economic revival to tackling climate change, racial equity and reinvestment in American manufacturing.
Among his proposals are a $300 billion increase in government spending on research and development of technologies, like electric vehicles and 5G cellular networks, and an additional $400 billion in federal procurement spending on products that are manufactured in the United States.
To discourage American companies from moving jobs to other countries, known as offshoring, he proposed a 10 percent “offshoring penalty surtax” that would apply to “profits of any production by a United States company overseas for sales back to the United States.”
Taxes
Biden wants to partially repeal the Trump tax overhaul, rolling back tax cuts for corporations and the highest earners. He has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28 percent, from 21 percent.
But he has said that he will keep tax cuts in place for other households, including those in the middle class, and he has promised that no one making under $400,000 will pay higher taxes.
Climate Change
Biden laid out a plan over the summer to spend $2 trillion to develop clean energy and eliminate emissions from the power sector by 2035. In addition to the coronavirus pandemic, the resulting economic crisis and racial injustice, he has referred to climate change as one of four “historic crises” that the United States is facing.
But notably, he has declined to support the Green New Deal, a sweeping climate plan embraced by progressive groups and criticized by Republicans, though his website calls it a “crucial framework.”
And while Mr. Trump has accused Mr. Biden of wanting to “ban fracking,” Mr. Biden has repeatedly said he will not do so. Instead, he has proposed ending the permitting of new fracking on federal lands, but he is not proposing a national ban."
主要股市指数今天大幅上涨并创出历史新高，但收市时道指及标普500都比高点低很多而纳指则大幅下跌。道琼斯指数一度上涨约1700点，是有史以来最大的单日涨幅。驱使市场上升的重大消息是拜登赢得总统选举和Pfzer / Biontech的Covid-19疫苗的有效性是90%。虽然拜登赢得总统选举对股市长远看好，但投资人趁好消息获利卖出的卖压及下面几个市场风险可能会破坏短期上升趋势：
。共和党人和特朗普继续对几个州选举结果有争议，这可能会导致总统过渡推迟，并带来不确定性。根据一位数据科学家的推文，他使用了《纽约时报》网站上“抓取的”时间序列数据，数据比较多个州（摇摆州和非摇摆州）清楚地说明了欺诈行为的做法和合法的做法，以及几种欺诈行为的真实性。当拜登领先特朗普总统时，摇摆状态的异常留下了“欺诈的指纹”。
。因为在Geogia的两个参议院议席选举都没有明显的以大比数胜出而导致要在到2021年1月5日重选。1月的选举结果至关重要，因为它将决定是民主党还是共和党控制美国参议院。如果民主党赢得两个席位，参议院将有50名民主党人和50名共和党参议员。打破平局的决定者将是副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris），如果确定拜登获胜的话。这将使拜登的高税收政策轻松通过，并成为股票市场的担忧。
。随着投资者从增长型股票转向价值型股票，人们担心高市盈率科技股会遭到抛售。今天，这已很明显，因为科技股含量高的纳斯达克综合指数跑输其他指数。从技术上讲，纳斯达克综合指数今天早些时候创出新高，但收市时放弃了所有涨幅而转为下跌，造成了当日逆转并已经形成了三重顶的看跌形态。这对市场而言并不好， 因为没有大型科技股的帮助，股市很难有大进展。
。另外，持续恶化的Covid-19大流行可能会在疫苗和经济刺激措施出现之前拖累经济下滑。 “星期一，美国的病例数突破了1000万，全球病例数超过了5000万。在美国达到900万例后仅10天这一数字就达到了1000万。” --- CNBC “约翰·霍普金斯大学的数据显示，COVID-19冠状病毒继续在欧洲蔓延。迄今为止，受影响最严重的意大利，今天冠状病毒的病例数已增至7,375例，死亡人数为366例。今天 欧洲总共有12,000例确诊病例。仅次于意大利，法国是第二个最多的病例的国家（1,209例），有19例死亡；德国有1,040例，其中18例已经康复，没有死亡；西班牙有673例， 有17人死亡。” --- Statista。
以下三图源自Finviz.com:
以下是《纽约时报》总结拜登的主要政策摘要：
新冠病毒
“拜登以积极抗击这种流行病作为他竞选活动的中心信息，他认为，如果他掌管国家，国家会更好。
卫生保健
拜登（Biden）支持扩大《平价医疗法案》（Affordable Care Act）并创建一种公共选择权-他将这一计划昵称为“拜登医疗法案（Bidencare）”。他谴责共和党推翻医疗保健法的努力，并发誓要确保患有先决条件的美国人将继续获得医疗保健。
经济
拜登（Biden）制定了一项全面的经济复苏计划，该计划的名称为“ Build Back Better”，旨在创造数百万个工作岗位。拜登在其计划中将经济复兴与应对气候变化，种族平等和对美国制造业的再投资联系起来。在他的建议中，政府将在电动汽车和5G蜂窝网络等技术研发方面增加3000亿美元的政府支出，另外还将在美国制造的产品上增加4000亿美元的联邦采购支出。为了阻止美国公司将工作转移到其他国家（称为离岸外包），他提出了10％的“离岸罚款附加费”，适用于“美国公司在海外销售回美国的任何产品的利润”。
税收
拜登希望部分废除特朗普的为企业和收入最高的人减税税制。他提议将企业税率从21％提高到28％。但是他说过，他将继续为包括中产阶级在内的其他家庭减税，并且他承诺，年收入低于40万美元的人不会缴纳高的税款。
气候变化
拜登在夏季制定了一项计划，计划花费2万亿美元发展清洁能源，并在2035年之前消除电力部门的废气排放。除了冠状病毒大流行，随之而来的经济危机和种族不公正外，他还把气候变化称为美国面临的“历史四大危机”之一。但值得注意的是，尽管他的网站称其为“关键框架”，但他拒绝支持绿色新政。绿色新政是进步组织所接受，共和党人批评的全面气候计划。尽管特朗普先生指控拜登先生想“禁止水力压裂产油”，但拜登先生一再表示他不会这样做。相反，他提议终止允许在联邦土地上进行新压裂的许可，但他没有提议实行全国禁令。”
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