NIO Is A Bubble Bursting NIO泡沫破裂

Investors's extreme bullish sentiment pushed NIO from October 4, 2019's $1.19 all the way up to today's high of $54.20, a crazy 4455% return in 13 months! A series good news such as company delivering more vehicles last month, XPeng (XPEV) reported better earnings two days ago and Li Auto (LI) reported better earnings yesterday have been driving the bullishness of NIO to extreme. It is a classic sell on news opportunity. After NIO made a high of $54.20 earlier today, it has since reversed back down to $44.92, this is a classic bubble bursting signal in a stock.  NIO is too speculative to invest for the long term, it's better for trading long and short side for the short term. Following are some negatives for NIO:

1. Investors have no sense of how to match fundamentals with stock price, the only thing in their mind is  the company's future may be as good or even better than TSLA. This kind of word of mouth feeds from one investors to another and to hundreds and thousands others who rarely investigate into the companies fundamentals or understand what's going on in the business.  Investors are banking on NIO's intangible value that is hard to measure. Now the stock price has risen 4455% in the last 13 months making it a gigantic bubble ready to burst. NIO stock price has reflected a perfect future growth scenario and leave no room for errors. 

2, In September, global electric car sales listed NIO number 20 only in rank with up to September sales of merely 26498 cars this year. It's sales rank even lower than Ford (F) 's 17 and 30432 cars up to September sales. There is too much competition in the EV business.

3. Price to Sales ratio is a good way to measure valuation of a stock. The lower the Price to Sales the better. NIO's Price to Sales ratio is a whopping 45 times compares to other car makers such as TSLA's 14, TM's 0.87, GM's 0.50 and F's 0.26. NIO is way overvalue.

4. The consensus price target of 15 analysts rated NIO at $22.35. 

5. NIO is not making any money yet and has a negative Book Value of $-0.83.

6. Famous short-seller Citron Research recommended investors to sell the stock today, citing pricing pressure posed by bigger rival Tesla Inc in the Chinese market. "Anyone buying NIO stock now is not buying a company or its prospects, rather you are buying 3 letters that move on a screen," Citron"s Andrew Left said in the note. Citron's downside target for NIO is $25.

7. Technicals: NIO reversed from up to down today and has formed a bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, it has formed a bearish long tail reversal pattern after a vertical move up for weeks. The first two downside targets are its 20 day and 50 day moving averages and they are $34.79 and $26.17.

投资者的极端看涨情绪推动NIO从2019年10月4日的1.19美元一路攀升至今天的高点54.20美元，在13个月内达到了4455％的疯狂涨幅！一系列好消息，例如公司上个月交付了更多车辆，XPeng(XPEV)两天前报告了好于预期的收益，而昨天Li Auto (LI)也报告了好于预期的收益将NIO的看涨情绪推向了极端。这是经典的好消息出来后卖出的机会。 NIO在今天早些时候创下54.20美元的高位后，随后又回落至44.92美元，这是股票中典型的泡沫破灭信号。 NIO的投机性太强，无法作长期投资，短期内进行多空交易比较好。以下是对NIO的一些负面因素：

1.投资者不知道如何将基本面与股价相匹配，他们唯一想到的是公司的未来可能和TSLA一样甚至更好。这种口口相传从一个投资者传给另一个投资者，再到成千上万的其他人，而他们都很少调查公司的基本面或了解业务的发展。投资者正在觉秋NIO的难以衡量的无形价值。现在，股价在过去13个月中上涨了4455％，使其成为一个巨大的泡沫，随时可能破裂。NIO的股价已经反映出理想的未来增长前景，并且不能有错误的余地。

2、9月份，全球电动汽车销量NIO 只排行第20位，而今年截至9月的销量仅为26498辆。截至9月，它的销售排名甚至低于福特（F）的排名第17和30432辆车。这个行业的竟争太剧烈了。

3.价格/销售额比率（Price to Sales) 是衡量股票估值的一种好方法。这个比率越低越好。NIO的 价格/销售额比率高达45倍。与其他汽车制造商（如TSLA的14，TM的0.87，GM的0.50和F的0.26）相比， NIO的价格是极端被高估的。

4. 15位分析师的NIO共识目标价只为22.35美元。

5. NIO尚未盈利，账面价值为-0.83美元。

6.著名卖空机构Citron Research建议投资者今天抛售股票，理由是更大的竞争对手特斯拉（Tesla Inc.）在中国市场造成的定价压力。 Citron的Andrew Left在笔记中说：“现在购买NIO股票的任何人都不是在购买公司或其前景，而是在购买3个在报价屏幕上移动的字母。” Citron对NIO定下的下行目标是25美元。

7.技术分析：NIO今天从上向下反转，并在日线图上形成了看跌的“乌云盖顶”模式。在周线图上，它在垂直上涨数周后形成了看跌的长尾反转形态。NIO首先两个下行目标是20天和50天移动平均线水平，分别是34.79美元和26.17美元。阻力位54.20美元。